The development of Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix is central to the team’s success in 2025. Yet, it’s still very early in his career, having made just eight career starts, with only three coming
in away games. Despite that small sample size, his performance in road games thus far remains very much a work in progress. With five of the team’s next seven games being on the road, he’ll have to step up away from the friendly confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium if the Falcons want to make their playoff push.
Their most immediate road matchup will be against the San Francisco 49ers this Sunday night. The outcome of this game could have huge playoff implications as far as tie-breakers go by season’s end. But the 49ers aren’t the only challenging opponent, with the Falcons facing upcoming road matchups against the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, two teams that are in the same boat as the Falcons in terms of outperforming early-season expectations and vying for playoff contention. All three of these matchups will undoubtedly test the teams and their young quarterbacks’ progress thus far.
If the Falcons are going to overcome any of these opponents, they’ll need better play from Penix. He won’t have to carry the team, given how well the run game and defense are playing thus far. But his performances away from home have been in the cellar, and that won’t be good enough to beat the upcoming opponents who are currently playing at or near playoff-caliber levels.
According to Next Gen Stats, Penix ranks 41st among qualifying passers with a 55.2 passer rating on the road this season. His completion rate over expected (CPOE) also ranks last at -13.6%. And his expected points added per dropback ranks second to last, only ahead of recently benched Cincinnati Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning. These stats aren’t unique to 2025 either. Penix similarly did not perform well in several of these efficiency metrics last year, ranking in the bottom five in passer rating and CPOE among qualifying quarterbacks, too.
Penix’s road struggles mirror those of Matt Ryan’s early career
Again, it’s worth reminding that we’re analyzing a small sample size of three road games—the first three of Penix’s career. It’s certainly common for young, inexperienced quarterbacks to struggle on the road. Legendary Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan saw similar struggles early in his career, sporting a passer rating of just 57.1 during his first three road starts. Advanced stats like CPOE weren’t around back in 2008, but Ryan’s completion rate of 50 percent during his first three road games was well below his 70 percent completion rate in his first three career home games and the league average of 61 percent at that time.
Ryan eventually saw improved production on the road over his rookie season, with a passer rating of 98.3 and completion rate of 64.4 over the remaining five games. He would steadily build on that over the course of his Falcons career, eventually becoming one of the league’s most efficient road quarterbacks by his fifth season in 2012, and this continued over the next seven years of his prime.
Recently improved play-calling should help Penix on the road
Today’s Falcons would love to see similar results with Penix, but on a much faster timeline. Some elements that could help fast-track that development include the recent changes the team has made, such as offensive coordinator Zac Robinson posting up on the sideline to call plays. After struggling with procedural issues, particularly in their early-season road matchups with Robinson in the booth, clearer and more concise communication between the play-caller and quarterback can facilitate Penix’s growth.
Robinson’s play-calling has improved in recent weeks, leading to Penix starting games stronger. During Penix’s first six starts, including both home and away games, his combined passer rating of 63.8 in the first quarter was very underwhelming. But over the past two games, that has improved to 139.3. Notably, those recent early-game improvements have come at home. Now, they’ll have to translate to the road, where the Falcons will face a more hostile environment.
Fortunately, Penix won’t need to play lights out, given an impressive supporting cast featuring running back Bijan Robinson and the NFL’s top defense. A dominant run game and strong defense were a winning formula in Penix’s first career road victory against the Vikings over a month ago. If the Falcons can get closer to average play from Penix on the road, it’ll be a significant improvement and should help the young quarterback get his second win away from home in his career. Given he’s facing an injury-depleted 49ers defense on Sunday, there won’t be a more favorable time any time soon.
