So the World Series matchup is finally set. The mighty Los Angeles Dodgers will be facing off against the pride of Canada, the Toronto Blue Jays. We expected the Dodgers to be here, but that was not the case
for the Jays. The Jays won 74 games last year and had longer odds to win the World Series than teams like the Rays and Twins entering the season.
However, thanks to strong team building and some breakout seasons, the Jays have made their first World Series in over 3 decades. When looking at it from a Nationals perspective, their model is much more replicable than the one the Dodgers have used to win.
From a payroll perspective, the Jays live in a similar world to the one the Nats used to live in. In 2025, the Jays were 7th in active payroll and 5th in total payroll. Back in 2019, the Nats were in an extremely similar spot. They were actually 5th in active payroll and 7th in total payroll.
You actually find a lot of champions in this range. The 2022 Astros and 2023 Rangers were both 7th in active payroll. That range is usually indicative of teams having a mix of expensive veteran talent while also having cheap young talent sprinkled in. Having that mix is critical to going deep in the playoffs.
The Blue Jays showed that this year. A lot of their veteran stars stepped up this October. Of course, we know about the insane postseason Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having. Their second highest paid player, George Springer was the man who delivered the swing that brought them to the World Series.
In October, you need your stars to show up and that has happened for the Jays. Guys like Guerrero, Springer and Kevin Gausman have all been fabulous. Those are all guys the Jays have paid. Pay attention Mark Lerner, you have to spend to win in October. You can win a lot of regular season games with a small budget, but those cheaper teams just don’t have the star power to win it all. Just look at the Brewers and the Rays over the last few years.
If Mark Lerner’s goal is to just get back to the playoffs, he can follow that Rays model. It works well in the regular season, but you need to spend to have a World Series ceiling. You need star players like Springer and Gausman, as well as veteran leaders like Max Scherzer, who had a phenomenal start for the Jays that turned the tide of the series.
However, when you have a big, but not Dodgers big payroll, you need to find value on the margins too. You need to develop and find hidden gems. The Blue Jays have done a great job of that this year.
The perfect example of that is Ernie Clement. He is not some big super star name, but his all around play has been massive for the Jays. His elite defense at third base is a big reason why the Blue Jays have the best defense in all of baseball. Clement is also a pesky hitter and the definition of a tough out.
He does not hit for much power, but the Jays have enough power at the top of the lineup. Guys like Guerrero, Springer and Dalton Varsho provide the power, while other players are just tough outs. Those big guns are enough for them to rank 11th in baseball in homers.
However, their real super power is hitting for average while also having good power. The Jays .265 team average was by far the best in baseball in the regular season. Players like Clement, Nathan Lukes and Alejandro Kirk provide so much value with their contact hitting and defensive play.
The Blue Jays are just a very well balanced team. They have home grown guys in Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Trey Yesavage and Alejandro Kirk. However, they have also brought in big pieces like Gausman, Springer, Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman in free agency. Lastly, they have also made smart trades for undervalued players like Clement, Louis Varland and Andres Gimenez.
It shows the value of having a diverse team with a lot of different skillsets. They have created an identity of defense and contact hitting, while also not ignoring the power hitting side of the game.
If the Nationals want to get back to where they want to be, this is a model they need to follow. Even in the glory days, they never spent like the Dodgers. They had a home grown core that they supplemented with outside talent. That is what Paul Toboni needs to get back to.
There is the start of a homegrown core here, but they are still very young and need time to develop. While it would be nice to spend at the top of the market in free agency, it might be slightly early for that. Before Springer and Gausman went to Toronto, the team had shown real upward mobility. That has not happened yet for the Nats.
Hopefully the Nats can find their own Ernie Clement’s and Louis Varland’s to start showing improvement. Once the team starts showing upward mobility, Mark Lerner needs to be aggressive in the market like his father was back in the day. You need to spend to win the big prizes, but you also need to have a smart team building philosophy. The Blue Jays have shown both of those things, and that is why they won the pennant.
