If you watched yesterday’s game, one thing stuck out like a sore thumb, and that was the ineffectiveness of Miles Mikolas. After two great innings to start the game, the veteran got tattooed, allowing a club record 11 earned runs. That begs the question, how long will Blake Butera and Paul Toboni stick with the veteran right hander?
Hopes were not very high when the Nats signed Mikolas on a one-year deal. Over the last
three seasons, Mikolas had posted a 4.98 ERA in 98 starts. Now, the right hander was a year older and playing in front of a worse infield defense. The signing was a bit curious, but hey it was just a one-year deal and Mikolas has been a known innings eater.
Nats fans knew Mikolas would have some outings that weren’t great, but the hope was that he could deliver some quality starts and go five to six innings each time. So far, we have only seen the bad. In Mikolas’ defense, he has faced two high powered lineups that have owned him in the past. I also did not think he was that bad in his first outing, he was just hurt by his defense.
However, the overall results have been ugly so far. Mikolas has allowed 17 runs and 15 earned runs in his first 9.1 innings. There are innings where Mikolas hits his spots and looks good, but the margin for error is so small for the veteran. When he misses his spots, he gets absolutely clobbered.
That is due to a lack of pure stuff. Mikolas has never had great stuff, but in his first two starts this year, the stuff looks diminished. At 37 years old, this should not be much of a surprise. His already hittable 4-seam fastball went from 93 MPH to 91.9 MPH so far this season. Mikolas does not have the secondary pitches or deception to make up for this velocity loss. He is just a sitting duck when he is not perfect with his command.
In 2026, the average fastball from a righty starter is over 95 MPH. Stuff is better than ever, which makes Mikolas an easy target for these hitters so used to high velocity heaters. When Mikolas was at his best in 2018 and 2022, his 4-seam fastball averaged 94.1 and 93.5 MPH respectively. He has never been a guy with put away secondary pitches, so he has needed to rely on the fastball.
Right now, the fastball just is not there. While Blake Butera heavily indicated that Mikolas will be making his next start, if this continues much longer, it will be time for uncomfortable conversations. The Nats do not have a shortage of options at the AAA level right now.
One guy I would like to see back in the big leagues is Andrew Alvarez. Since coming up in September of last year, he has been very impressive. He posted a 2.31 ERA in 5 starts last year, and looked good this spring. After a shaky first start in Rochester, he dominated last time out, throwing five scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts.
Like Mikolas, Alvarez does not have a power fastball. However, he does have the kind of sharp secondary pitches that Mikolas does not possess. It is also a little easier to be a soft tosser as a lefty. Southpaws just tend to create more awkward angles and deception with hitters. With Mikolas, you are not getting any of that deception.
It seems like the Nats will give Mikolas some time to try and figure it out. However, I think the leash should be short. They did not commit much to him financially, and the results have been catastrophic so far. If the results don’t turn around in the next couple starts, the Nats need to pull the plug. Admitting when you mess up is a sign of an intelligent front office. No GM bats 1.000, and it looks like the Mikolas signing will be a miss.
I get giving the veteran some time. Mikolas has accomplished a lot in his career, so pulling the plug after two starts would be rough, especially on a rebuilding team. However, it really seems like the writing is on the wall with this experiment. Hopefully, Mikolas turns it around, but I do not have faith.
Miles Mikolas made two All-Star teams and had some great years in St. Louis. However, father time is undefeated. It really seems like Miles Mikolas is at the end of the line here. He better bounce back next time out, or the pressure will really ramp up on the Nats new regime to solve this problem.
