One dud can ruin a season.
After a 26-5 (16-4) regular season, the Belmont Bruins looked like a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team. At a minimum, a loss in the Arch Madness Championship game would keep them in the at-large conversation — their +0.21 WAB metric ranked in the top-50 nationally.
Even as the nation’s top offense by effective field goal percentage (61.4%) dropped 81 points, the Bruins couldn’t overcome Drake’s hottest game of the year, as the Bulldogs broke the century mark en route to the Missouri
Valley Tournament semifinals.
Life’s tough in these one-bid leagues.
This was easily Drake’s best game of the season on both ends of the court, as Eric Henderson’s much-maligned defense shut down the interior, while his inconsistent offense shot the lights out over the top of Belmont’s shell. The Bulldogs lost their final nine regular-season games entering Arch Madness but now stand 80 minutes away from the Big Dance.
Meanwhile, this was easily Belmont’s worst game of the season.
Sharpshooter Tyler Lundblade no-showed in the second half, while the Bruins’ lack of athleticism was overly apparent on the defensive end. Drake’s backcourt of Owen Larson and Jalen Quinn bodied the Bruins to the tune of 56 combined points on 16-for-30 (53%) shooting from inside the arc. The Bulldogs got to the line 31 times and made 27.
Belmont’s at-large resume won’t survive Friday’s catastrophe. It’s too bad, as the Bruins were looking like a potential Cinderella squad. But the road to March is littered with potholes, and you have to survive each and every one to find the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
At the same time, let’s celebrate what March is all about — the Underdog.
Part of Drake’s issues this season were a 3-point-heavy offense that couldn’t make enough shots (32% from 3 in conference play) and a relatively compact defense that got smoked by the long-ball over the regular season’s final 10 games (opponents shot 42% from 3 during that stretch). During that same stretch, the Bulldogs actually played OK inside the arc.
Belmont runs a similar two-way scheme. Although its offense is more motion-based and its defense is more aggressive, the Bruins shoot a lot and allow plenty of triples.
Drake’s two best 3-point shooting games of the season both came against Belmont (31-for-66 across the two games, 47%). But Belmont shot 28-for-72 (38%) while convincingly winning the points-in-the-paint battle (68-to-46). The Bruins won the first game by two and the second by 13.
Regardless, the 3-point shot was going to play a big role in this game — the two attempted a combined 65 triples — but Drake needed some two-way regression to the mean. The splits finally evened out in this battle (39% to 38%), and the Bulldogs were able to flash their upside, while Henderson showed why he was such a hot commodity at South Dakota State.
Sure, it’s only one game filled with an endless range of 3-point-related outcomes. But it means everything to these two programs, as the Belmont fanbase is devastated, while the Bulldog program has a new lease on life. That’s basketball, I guess.
