The next time a prominent coach with a long record of success decides to retire, pseudo-sages will lament the impossible task confronting his or her successor. That’s been an article of faith ever since Gene Bartow replaced John Wooden at UCLA for the 1975-76 season. Bartow was essentially driven from the job as a failure after only
leading the Bruins to a Final Four and a Sweet 16 in a two-year span.A less-noted but similar fate befell long-time UNC assistant Bill Guthridge, who followed Dean Smith
with Final Four visits in 1998 and 2000, only to be hounded into retirement after three years on the job.
So what would befall the man following Mike Krzyzewski at Duke? The general view was that surpassing success was as unlikely as, say, turning Indiana football into an overnight national power.
But that conclusion failed to take into account the soundness of the Blue Devil brand and the smoothness of the transition orchestrated by Krzyzewski and Jon Scheyer, the former Duke player and assistant who’s enjoyed near-matchless success in ACC competition as the Devils’ head coach.
Even taking into account the softness of the conference last season, and perhaps longer, what Scheyer is achieving with players he recruited, not inherited, is unparalleled, as Julian suspected. This past Saturday’s SMU game marked Duke’s 16th regular-season contest, and fourth in ACC play, its 15-1 record marred only by a loss to Texas Tech, not yet an ACC member.
The Devils need win only 5 of their remaining 14 league contests to give Scheyer the record for the best four-year conference start by an ACC coach.
Now, it’s fair to say that, in compiling the top ACC starts, recent coaches have benefited by directing teams that played more league games than previous peers. This somewhat skews win totals – hopefully more tries, more wins — which is why winning percentage is as important as, if not more important, than total wins in making coaching comparisons.
Four years is long enough to survive personnel turnover and set a program tone. Note that four years also marked the span of a recruiting class in an era when players stayed at one school throughout their career.
Scanning the data, a few points stand out. Not only is the start to Scheyer’s head coaching career extraordinary, so was Hubert Davis’ at North Carolina.
Whether oddly or appropriately, Davis gets less credit for coaching acumen than Scheyer. Each followed a Hall of Fame coach. Each launched his tenure with no head coaching experience. Each got a team to the Final Four.
Yet Scheyer, within the ACC and beyond, seems more highly regarded as Duke marches toward a start unmatched in the league’s previous 72 seasons.
This chart also shows how well Wake Forest did during the first two-thirds of Skip Prosser’s 6-year tenure, cut short in the summer of 2007 by his fatal heart attack. Prosser was replaced by the excellent Dave Odom and kept the Demon Deacons at a level they’ve rarely achieved in the two decades since.
And who would have imagined Mark Gottfried leading NC State to the ninth-best start in 73 years of ACC competition?
| EARLY RISERS Listed By Most ACC Regular-Season Wins In First Four Years As Head Coach (Through Games Of 1-10-26) |
||
|---|---|---|
| W-L (W Pct.) | Coach, School | 1st Years |
| 56-24 (.700) | Hubert Davis, NC | 2022-25 |
| 52-12 (.813) | Jon Scheyer, D | 2023- |
| 45-19 (.703) | Roy Williams, NC | 2004-07 |
| 44-20 (.688) | Skip Prosser, WF | 2002-05 |
| 43-29 (.597) | Mike Brey, ND* | 2014-17 |
| 42-30 (.583) | Jim Boeheim, SU* | 2014-17 |
| 42-11 (.794) | Vic Bubas, D | 1960-63 |
| 41-29 (.586) | Jim Larranaga, UM | 2012-15 |
| 39-31 (.557) | Mark Gottfried, NS | 2012-15 |
| 39-34 (.534) | Kevin Keatts, NS | 2018-21 |
