Last week I took an early look at the Cardinals projections, and before I take a look at the Cardinals again (think of last week as a preview of the final Cards projection article) I will look at the NL Central from the bottom up. And that starts with the bottom of the ocean floor, where resides the Jolly Roger. Arrrrrrrrr, me mateys.
The criteria I will use will be to simply look at each team in the NL Central’s 15 strongest players, with at least 5 rotation pitchers and top bullpen pitchers only.
Plus the best of the bench. This could vary by team, because each team will have different strengths… i.e. sometimes I’ll look at a team’s bench more, or a team’s bullpen, whichever is projected to be better. But I won’t be going too deep here. 20 players total per team. Outside of that and you get into fringe players and guys that won’t be receiving too much playing time.
The Pirates
Uber-prospect Konor Griffin will be joining Paul Skenes as the other big star on the team (potentially). He looks really good out of the gate though, with a 3.5 WAR projection by ZiPS, I’m not sure what’s going on here, but he was last at AA level. Listed as a shortstop, he could be their best position player even if he’s not quite ready. And that sort of sums up the Pirates lineup for you. Now keep in mind, Griffin’s defense is where he should be getting all this value from, not his hitting, at least looking at projections for his 19 year old debut season. Really don’t know how many games he will play, but if they don’t bring him with after spring training, it’s probable he won’t debut until he’s 20, but that’s only a few months away.
Oneil Cruz is your #2 Pirate position player, or #1 if Konor Griffin is to remain in the minor leagues. That 3.5 Griffin WAR projection is over 128 games, so results may vary according to playing time.
Anyhow, Cruz, with his big time power and 30% k rate are set to be at 2.8 WAR. Just a little above average hitter and average defender with a good arm.
Projected first baseman Spencer Horwitz looks like he could possibly be the Pirates best hitter, projecting out to be at 2.2 WAR, according to ZiPS. Second baseman Nick Gonzalez is a below average hitter but an above average defender projected to be at 2.1 WAR.
Outfielder Jake Mangum looks like he won’t be much of a hitter either, probably below league average, but another good defender. 1.9 WAR.
Jared Triolo is also a below league average hitter but good defender over at third base. I see a pattern emerging.
Outfielder Jack Suwinski isn’t very good at fielding but has some potential on offense, but not a whole lot. 1.6 WAR. Rafael Flores Jr is listed as another first baseman but only projects out to 1.5 WAR. They have a guy with a great baseball name in Duce Gourson that could be another 1.5 WAR guy. I am not including him in the rest of the article because he’s at AA level, and is not projected by Depth Charts or The Bat X.
Outfielder Dominic Fletcher is projected by ZiPS to be at 1.4 WAR. And the Pirates offseason move was to acquire Brandon Lowe, who is projected to be at 1.4 WAR also, about a league average hitter.
So by now you have an idea of the Pirates main position players, who are very defense forward with a cleanup hitter who is probably good for only 23 home runs because he has strikeout issues. His batting average is expected to be at .237. It shouldn’t be hard for the Cardinals to at least have more power than this lineup, again. At least we aren’t as powerless as the Pirates. Hopefully. That will require us to hit home runs to make up for the loss of Willson Contreras.
So with defense as a potential strength, the Pirates expect to frustrate at times with run prevention, especially with ace Paul Skenes on the mound. Somewhat surprisingly to me, ZiPS projects Skenes to be right at 5 WAR in 2026. Last year he was at 6.5, so I would think the floor is at 5, but hey, I hope ZiPS is right!
Mitch Keller is a pretty good pitcher but an unexciting #2. He is projected at 2.3 WAR and had 2.5 last season. All the rest of the Pirates pitchers are projected at less than 2 WAR, with Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft projected to come closest to being 2 WAR pitchers. Color me unimpressed by this rotation, unless Skenes completely goes off. That’s exciting but, still probably not enough to overcome this overall roster. It must really suck to be a Pirates fan:/
Their bullpen looks ok but not really a big strength either. So let’s move on to comparing ZiPS to some other projection systems that I trust more than the others.
The Bat X has Konor Griffin at 88 games, much less than the other projection systems expect. I think they will probably just rush him to the majors, as long as he impresses in spring training. At least, that’s what it seems like in early February. It’s important to note that the three projection systems I’m looking at are all having him playing different numbers of games.
It would seem that the Pirates have a platoon at 2B now with Nick Gonzalez and Brandon Lowe, who project out to be about the same WAR when looking at a consensus of projections. Otherwise I’m not sure why they acquired Lowe. The Pirates could also platoon at 1B with Spencer Horwitz being a left handed hitter and Rafael Flores Jr being a right handed hitter.
Just a quick analysis of these projections’ data, shows that ZiPS is more optimistic about the Pirates position players, while The Bat X thinks they’ll flat out kind of suck. You have Fangraphs Depth Charts in the middle. The opposite is true when looking at the starting rotation concerning The Bat vs ZiPS. ZiPS might be underrating the Pirates rotation a bit or just too pessimistic. Skenes surely is going to be worth more than 5 WAR this season, right? I think 6 WAR seems like a better guess.
While the Pirates rotation definitely blows the Cardinals out of the water with a pirate cannonball, the Cardinals projected position players are going to be more valuable, even without Brendan Donovan in the lineup. And outside of Paul Skenes, their rotation isn’t THAT good (our’s just doesn’t look very good on paper right now). Maybe I’ll change my tune on that after looking around some other rotations, but I was expecting to be a little more impressed.
This was an interesting article to write, with Konor Griffin probably being a big player to watch in 2026. Or do you think Pittsburgh will give him more time in the minor leagues? With the Pirates defense and pitching combo, they could be pretty annoying this year if Griffin ends up hitting like a big leaguer. That will more likely be a season or two down the line, but now you know what to expect… the Pirates lineup might not be quite as bad in 2026, and will probably be better than that in the not too distant future.
1976
‘76 was my first full year around the sun. Little did I know how utterly confounding the world is. Perhaps the most poignant movie of the year that year was this movie called Network. It was so far ahead of its time it is still a legendary flick.
“there is only IBM, Dupont, and Exxon”
Network was quite ahead of its time! It needed to be said again. It is a very quotable movie, and was a dark look at some turbulent times (not all that different from now, really), focusing on media ethics, all the while laden with acidic humor. I mean, check out this quote:
Howard Beale: All human beings are becoming humanoids. All over the world, not just in America. We’re just getting there faster since we’re the most advanced country.
I guess I was becoming a humanoid in 1976. But, you have got to get mad!
Howard Beale: All I know is, you’ve got to get mad. You’ve got to say, “I’m a human being, goddamn it. My life has value.”
Does this sum up the human condition? I don’t know, but learning to become human has its ups and downs. People go into drone mode for a bit, then put their foot down. It’s a constant process of re-evaluating behaviors, both in others and yourself. A balancing act between memory and impulse.
Howard Beale: You’re beginning to believe the illusions we’re spinning here, you’re beginning to believe that the tube is reality and your own lives are unreal. You do. Why, whatever the tube tells you: you dress like the tube, you eat like the tube, you raise your children like the tube, you even think like the tube. This is mass madness, you maniacs. In God’s name, you people are the real thing, WE are the illusion.
Is this why I started to blog? Not about tv, but just about being on the internet? I just don’t know anymore, Howard!
Howard Beale: This is not a psychotic breakdown; it’s a cleansing moment of clarity.
Oh ok, I feel better now. I do, however, completely agree with this:
Howard Beale: Television is not the truth. Television is a goddamned amusement park.
Yes, entertainment runs the show. And capital, of course. There is plenty more to be said about what Network touches upon, and please let me hear your comments on this movie! I will say no more about it in this article.
Taxi Driver and Rocky were two other top tier movie releases in 1976!
1976 was the 200th birthday of the USA. Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in the presidential election. Stagflation was “in”, which meant a stagnant economy with high inflation and high unemployment numbers. It was a time of transition after Vietnam and the Watergate scandal.
On January 27th, the US vetoed a UN resolution that would make Palestine an independent state. Apple computer was formed. The Atari video game Breakout was released. Tim Heidecker was born on Feb 3rd!I cannot believe that Tim is older than Lance Berkman! Who was born Feb 10th. Heck, I cannot believe I’m older than he is too! Guess Lance will be 50 soon.
In baseball, the Reds won their 2nd world series in a row in 1976 by sweeping the Yankees. The Reds also swept the Phillies! No wonder they called it the Big Red Machine. They just steamrolled in ‘76. There was a lockout in 1976, but it only lasted March 1-17, and it didn’t affect the regular season. The NL won the all-star game that year.
Our beloved Cardinals were not good back then, but neither were the Cubs. The Expos won 55 games and finished in last place, but that was the only team the Cardinals were better than, finishing 3 games behind the Cubs in 5th place, with the Phillies, Pirates, and Mets all fielding really good teams the 1976 season. Back then, there was an East and West and the Cardinals were in the East. Six teams per division.
The Royals George Brett finished behind the Cubs Bill Madlock for the batting title, Madlock batting .339! Mike Schmidt had 38 home runs, leading MLB. George Foster of the Reds had the most RBI. The Cardinals had a bright spot in John Denny leading the NL in ERA at 2.52! Somehow I don’t think I ever heard of the guy. The Mets Tom Seaver lead MLB with 235 Ks!
Joe Morgan and Thurman Munson were the MVPs that year, Morgan’s 2nd in a row! Righty Jim Palmer and lefty Randy Jones won the Cy Young Awards. Jones had won 16 games by the All Star Break, setting a record! On July 20, 1976, Hank Aaron hit his final blast, #755.
On July 24, 1976, Lyman Bostock of the Twins became the 4th Twins player to hit for the cycle, while batting 4th, going 4 for 4, scoring 4 runs, and knocking in 4 RBI! It was the first time he was batted at cleanup. What.
On August 8th, the White Sox wore shorts during the first game of a double header at Comiskey Park. I’m not sure why I included that, other than I thought it was a little random and absurd.
1976 was the 9th season in a row that Tom Seaver pitched over 200 strikeouts. Incredible! On September 10, Nolan Ryan fanned 18 White Sox hitters for a complete game 3-2 win.
October 3rd was the last game of Hank Aaron’s illustrious baseball career.
The Cardinals attendance was way down that year, showing I suppose that fans actually don’t show up when the team and the economy are bad. St Louis expects a good product.
Ok, enough random factoids, it is time for my top 10 albums of 1976!
Top 10 Albums of 1976
#1 Goblin – ‘Roller’ Italian proggers Goblin went on to have a very busy, even convoluted music career creating scores for 70’s and 80’s horror movies, but their roots were in prog rock, and Roller gives you the blueprint to their sound. It’s a bit more straight up prog rock than soundtrack, but it showed what they could do and a wild career and extensive cast of musicians resulting in the band fractioning, mutating, evolving, etc. There really is so much to say about this band. If you love cheesy but good vintage horror movie soundtrack sounds that incorporate both guitars and synthesizers, accompanied by an amazing rhythm section, you must check out the Goblin discography. They most frequently collaborated with Dario Argento.
P.S. I own a copy of this album on vinyl, which I bought at Amoeba Records while I was on vacation. It is one of my most prized possessions.
#2 Truth and Janey – ‘No Rest For The Wicked’ I don’t know what there is about this obscure proto-metal band from Cedar Rapids, IA, but I keep coming back to this album over the years. Picking up where Sabbath left off with Sabotage, we hear Truth and Janey pick up the torch while blending in a vast array of classic rock influences. However, if you told me this came out today as a new stoner rock band going for a vintage sound, I might believe you. A timeless sound of rock n’ roll cranked through double stacks. Truth and Janey plays with a swagger that few can match, almost entering Jethro Tull territory. I don’t own a copy of this on vinyl, but wish that I did. I grew up not too far from Cedar Rapids and never heard of this band until the youtube era. And because of google, I just learned that Iowa has a rock and roll Hall of Fame! I did not know that. Truth and Janey were of course inducted.
#3 Heart – ‘Dreamboat Annie’ I absolutely love this album. Another one that I own on vinyl. Just a fantastic listen, one of my favorite guitarists and two of my favorite singers in the world. Classic songs composed perfectly. Heart’s first two albums are among the very best rock albums ever recorded, in my opinion.
#4 Magma – ‘Udu Wudu’ weirdo prog funk from France… Magma created a whole new genre of music which blended prog rock, jazz fusion, classical, disco, funk, opera, and the avant garde: a genre called Zeuhl. Yes, this was before Ghostbusters. The primary unifying element of Zeuhl is not only progressive music but also an entirely made up language that exists in each band. This might sound like French, but usually it’s a made up language called Kobaïan. They have a lot of albums and you’ll just have to find your favorite one. This one leans more on the funky as the mid 70’s are apt to do. Some of them have beautiful choirs. One of the best live bands I’ve ever seen! And they brought a full band with multiple singers, organ player, etc.
#5 Dr. Aftershave and The Mixed Pickles – ‘For Missus Beastly’ this funk rock obscurity my perfectly sum up the times of the mid-70s… music like this could be heard everywhere. However, I find this album exceptionally catchy and well produced for the times. While the music performances are super fun but also virtuosic, really well rehearsed, creative, etc. I might end up wishing I had ranked this album higher up, it’s a recent find! I found that the beginning track kind of stole the show, but the whole thing is very uplifting.
#6 Rush – ‘2112’ I cannot believe that I am ranking this album this low, but there will always be some that think I’m ranking this too highly. My fandom of obscure funk bands has risen more quickly than my fandom of prog rock, which plateaued a while back now. Still love it, but not likely to do prog rock deep dives to find new stuff. Anyhow, I still love the classic prog rock album 2112 and think that it is still extremely influential, but they have so many other albums that I like even more than this one, I have to temper my fandom a bit. At times, this album sounds a bit silly, but I digress. I love Geddy Lee, Neil Peart, and Alex Lifeson. And this album will always be a classic, straddling the lines of concept album, longform prog rock, and art rock. Would love to have seen them live on tour with this in the 70’s! But I was an infant then.
#7 Zappa – ‘Zoot Allures’ the link here is to side one of this album (in that classic vinyl sound, the following links will be in remastered form), because the opening tracks of “Wind Up Working In A Gas Station”, “Black Napkins”, and “The Torture Never Stops” are among Frank Zappa’s top tier creations. I’d even go so far to say that Zoot Allures has one of the best opening three songs of almost any album! Track 1 sums up his humor, energy, and athletic musical mastery, Track 2 showcases Frank’s in the moment guitar shredding and more trippy side perhaps better than any other song, & Track 3 is one of his nastiest but most laid back funk tracks. On side 2 of the vinyl, title track “Zoot Allures” is another really fun, top tier instrumental guitar track. I could deal without the rest of the album, but these four tracks are so damn good it makes the list.
#8 King Tubby – ‘King Tubbys meets rockers uptown’ I like this King Tubby album more than last year’s one (1975), and also more than the other really good King Tubby album from 1976! You know this is good stuff. But, 1976 has stacked really good albums. No knock against King Tubby Meets Rockers Uptown! Total mood music down really well and well produced. Mid 70’s was a time of emergent heavy metal, funk, prog rock, and of course, the emergence of dub reggae. An important cultural and technological development in music production techniques.
#9 Sun Ra – ‘Cosmos’ I had never heard this particular Sun Ra album, but his discography is vast! I love this album Cosmos because it emerges is spaced out free jazz side with a more 70’s funk meets jazz fusion sound. Its production however is not that smooth mid 70’s production, the bass is in your face, the drums sound pretty raw, and the whole thing more like a live recording, like many Sun Ra albums, but this one is especially intense, you can tell they are probably playing louder than usual. Every Sun Ra album is another adventure, and there are many to encounter.
#10 Chrome – ‘The Visitation’ It is not easy to believe that this album is from 1976. Chrome were always on the bleeding edge of punk, industrial metal, and weirdo psychedelic art rock, but from the get go is impressive. I have to tell you guys, this year was a lot harder to rank than 1975 and I don’t think it’s going to get any easier going forward. Chrome were proto everything and their debut is no exception, at times I am like what is even going on here but it always makes sense somehow.
Album of the year 1976
And to close this out, here is some Jurrangelo Cijntje video!
