What an up-and-down season it has been for Kentucky Basketball, as shown by just the last two games: A dominating win over Vanderbilt, where the Wildcats led for 38+ minutes, followed by a double-digit loss to Texas A&M just 72 hours later, allowing a 27-3 run.
While locked in an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats are playing for seeding, likely a 6-7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and anywhere from a 4-10 seed in the SEC Tournament. The last game of the regular season to ultimately decide
the latter is the SEC regular-season champion, the Florida Gators.
Already having played once this season, Kentucky trailed by as many as 17 points in the first 10 minutes, but fought back to make it a five-point game in the second half.
Can the Wildcats put together a full 40 minutes together, avoid a season sweep for the first time since 2018, and guarantee themselves a bye in the SEC Tournament?
Here’s what to watch for in Kentucky vs. Florida, Part II.
Backcourt Play
While Florida has one of the best frontcourts in the country, one of the deciding factors in the first game was the backcourt play, as Xavian Lee and Urban Klavzar, who had two of their best performances of the season and combined for 41 points.
At this point of the season, the correlation of Kentucky’s success and the play of Otega Oweh, Collin Chandler, and Denzel Aberdeen is pretty clear. Coming off a game against Texas A&M, where they combined for 36 points, on 11-30 shooting, they need to outplay Florida’s backcourt for Kentucky to have a shot at the upset.
Foul Trouble
Given their elite frontcourt, Florida looks to give their big men plenty of touches around the basket and attack the basket for offensive rebounding opportunities. As a result, they draw fouls at one of the highest rates in the nation, nearly 20 a game.
In the first matchup, Kentucky had four players with four or more fouls, including Brandon Garrison, who fouled out. This limited Malachi Moreno to just 21 minutes, still having a team-high 11 rebounds. Backing him up, Garrison had as many fouls (5) as points, rebounds, and blocks combined.
Kentucky will likely face foul trouble again, and with a limited frontcourt, Mark Pope has the option of playing Malachi Moreno through foul trouble or hoping for better production from the other bigs. Pope has shown that he would rather go with the latter. Fortunately, Mo Dioubate is coming off his best game of the season, and Garrison had one of his better performances, albeit against a smaller Texas A&M team. They will need to sustain some level of production to give Kentucky a chance against Florida.
Turnovers
Kentucky played well for the final 30 minutes of the first matchup, outscoring Florida 66-60 during that span. It was the first 10 minutes that were the issue, where they turned the ball over 9 times and put themselves into a 17-point deficit.
Whether it be slow starts, as in the Florida game, or tough mid-game stretches like against Texas A&M, too often Kentucky puts itself in a hole with turnovers. Mark Pope has said it, turnovers are a great indicator for this team. When keeping turnovers in the single digits, Kentucky is 11-2; when that number rises to 10 or more, it is just 3-9 against power opponent teams.
Take care of the ball.
Players to watch
Thomas Haugh 6-9, 215 lbs
- 17.1 PPG
- 6.0 RPG
- 17 points and 8 rebounds vs UK on 2/14/26
Reuben Chinyelu 6-10, 265 lbs
- 11.3 PPG
- 11.8 RPG
- 58.6% FG
Xavian Lee 6-4, 180 lbs
- 11.7 PPG
- 4.1 APG
- 22 points, 4-7 3P vs UK on 2/14/26
Kentucky Basketball vs. Florida Gators
- Time: 4:00 PM ET on March 7th
- Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, KY
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, and Dick Vitale will call the action.
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and the ESPN network (check local listings)
- Rosters: UK | UF
- Stats to Know: UK | UF
- KenPom: UK | UF
- Team Sheet: UK | UF
- Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game, so please check back later for those. The analytics have Kentucky as the underdog, giving them anywhere between a 1-3 and 1-4 chance. ESPN is the most positive in Kentucky’s chances, at a 37.2% chance to win. EvanMiya (32.3%), KenPom (29%), and BartTorvik (27%) trail behind, all within five percent of each other.
- Predictions: The analytics show the most favorable scenario is a five-point loss, with Haslametrics (80-75) and EvanMiya (81-76) projecting that. BartTorvik and KenPom are both in agreement with a seven-point loss, 81-74. Florida is playing like a title contender, riding a 10-game win streak, while Kentucky is struggling to string back-to-back wins. With Florida’s higher level of play, I am taking them to win 85-76.
Sound off in the comments section on how you think this matchup will go.
And Go Cats!!
