Another day, another loss. In August, the Cubs were 15-14 and the narrative around social media was that the team was collapsing. The Cubs in no way collapsed, though the Brewers did pass them like they
were standing still. That was a testament to how well the Brewers played way more than anything particularly derogatory having to do with the Cubs. Was their August a bit disappointing? Absolutely. But I don’t think we should extend the definition of collapse to include teams that have a winning record. There is going to be a playoff team with 86 or fewer wins. A 15-14 month plays out to about 84 wins. While I’m fine with aiming higher than snagging the last spot in the playoffs I reject the idea that a 15-14 month is any great disaster.
To be clear, through Tuesday night’s loss, the September record is 10-10. A little worse, not final. But right now, the team does appear to be going through some form of collapse. I don’t we need to put on life jackets just yet or head for the life boats. But the ship does appear to be taking on water as the team loses its fifth straight game. For the first time in weeks, maybe months, the first Wild Card spot actually appears in some trouble. The Cubs would now have to win four of their last five to lock down that spot on their own. To be fair, the Padres have four remaining opportunities to lose. Four total Cub wins or Padre losses nails the top spot and home games at Wrigley Field down. I’d still favor the Cubs for that spot, but a week ago I’d have told you it was a near lock.
In modern day conversation, we throw phrases like perfect storm around fairly casually. But, I think, at least anecdotally it was the collision of three circumstances that led to the designation of the Perfect Storm. At least the one that was the subject of a book and movie. In regular conversation, I think the bar is lower. I’ll leave it for you to decide if this game can be labelled as a perfect storm. The Cubs were sailing in this one, leading 6-1 through four innings. But, a little earlier their rookie star, Cade Horton, left the game early reporting a back issue that the team understandably wanted to be careful with.
Horton leaving the game after three innings was the first element of the turnaround. The second was a play that Dansby Swanson couldn’t make in the fifth inning. He appeared to aggressively charge a grounder looking to turn a double play that would have ended the inning. But he came up empty and rather than a double play, the runners ended up at second and third and still only one out. The Mets went on to score five runs in the inning. You can’t assume sequencing remains the same. However, if you turn that play into an out, the next play ends up being the third out. No runs score. Flips to five runs scored.
The Cubs battled for the remainder of the game, but ultimately their bullpen just wasn’t up to the task. The Cubs bullpen ended up allowing eight runs in six innings of work. That only three of those runs were unearned is no consolation on a night when a fifth straight loss stacked up. Pointing fingers doesn’t help. But there’s plenty of blame to pass around as the losses pile up.
Things need to turn — and turn quickly — or the Cubs will be trying to win a postseason series in San Diego.
Pitch Counts:
- Mets: 174, 42 BF
- Cubs: 131, 41 BF
Well, this is odd. The Mets pitchers throw over 19 pitches per inning (flashing yellow light) and the Cubs throw 14.55 pitches per inning (weak green light). That looks like a Cub win. What the heck? 15 extra batters and 14 extra batters is about even. Cade Horton was super efficient for his three innings of work at under 10 pitches per inning. This game unraveled pretty quickly on the Cubs. None of the Cub relievers other than Andrew Kittredge were particularly efficient. But in total, Cub pitchers were efficient. But with 11 hits allowed, maybe they needed a little less efficiency? Three of those hits left the yard.
Meanwhile, that Met number is a borderline disaster. And yet, after the disaster that was their starter throwing 42 pitches to record four outs, they only allowed two runs, one earned over 7.2 innings of work. The primary offenders of that pitch count were the starter David Peterson and relievers Ryne Stanek and Tyler Rogers. Stanek threw a scoreless inning on a whopping 25 pitches. Not to be outdone, Rogers followed a bit later with three outs on 31 pitches.
In all, the Cubs took 11 at bats with runners in scoring position, notching a respectable four hits. The Cubs left eight, but it’s hard to fault seven runs. When you score seven, you should win. The Mets used four relievers for 25 or more pitches. Even coming out of an off day, it isn’t clear how many of the six Met relievers who were used will be available tomorrow. You know this time of the year, guys are saying they are available. But you have to wonder how some of these guys would even bounce back. On the Cubs side, Michael Soroka was the only one who threw more than even 20 pitches. He threw 33. He has been a starter this year. I don’t pretend to know the biomechanics of pitching, but I’m not sure he can just flip a switch and be a reliever, despite his very strong year as a reliever last year. Everyone else should be good.
Three Stars:
- Nico Hoerner had three hits (.302), drove in a run and scored four.
- Carlos Santana had a two-run double in his only plate appearance.
- Ian Happ had a double and a walk and drove in two runs.
Game 157, September 24: Mets 9, Cubs 7 (88-69)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Carlos Santana (.183). 1-1, 2B, 2 RBI
- Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.123). 1-5, RBI
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.113). 1-4, 2B, BB, 2 RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Caleb Thielbar (-.344). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, 2 ER (L 3-4)
- Goat: Taylor Rogers (-.257). IP, 5 BF, 2H, 2 ER
- Kid: Drew Pomeranz (-.136). 0.1 IP, 3 BF, H, BB, K
WPA Play of the Game: The decisive two-out, two-run homer by Francisco Alvarez in the eighth inning, breaking a tie game. (.378)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s two-out, RBI-single in the sixth inning tied the game. (.188)
Previous Winner: Jameson Taillon received 118 of 122 votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Jameson Taillon +22
- Cade Horton +18
- Shōta Imanaga/Matthew Boyd +17
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -20.33
- Carson Kelly -23
- Seiya Suzuki -28
Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs have clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason. We will no longer monitor any of the teams who can no longer catch the Cubs. The only other team that matters in any way at this point is the Padres. Padres (WC 2) win (Cubs up 1.5). The Cubs magic number relative to the Padres is 4. The Cubs can still clinch by winning four of their last five and any losses by the Padres nudge that forward too.
The Mets win and Reds lose. The Diamondbacks win. In a season of weird things, the Miami Marlins have won seven straight to stay mathematically alive. The Cardinals beat the Giants in a wild one. Too little, too late, the Braves have won 10 straight. They would only have 79 wins if they win out, so the Braves are cooked, but they are making life miserable for everyone else. With two teams at 80 wins (DBacks/Reds) and the Mets at 81, it’s pretty much a three-team race for one wild card spot. It’s kept me from keeping an eye on the AL where the Tigers have a realistic opportunity to miss the postseason (and could still win the Central).
Up Next: Matthew Boyd (13-8, 3.20, 174.1 IP) will make his 31st start of the year. We’ve talked about it endlessly, but this is the most number of starts he’s made since 2019. In September, he’s 1-1 with a 6.o0 over three starts. Let’s hang our wishful thinking on 11-1 with a 2.45 ERA over 84.1 home innings for Boyd. Boyd faced the Mets in May and allowed two runs over six innings.
Jonah Tong (2-2, 5.94, 16.2 IP) is a right-handed rookie pitcher for the Mets. He just held the Padres to one unearned run in five innings, allowing four hits, no walks and striking out eight. Tong was a seventh round pick of the Mets in 2022 (209th overall). There’s not a ton of sample here. The start before the Padre start, he allowed six runs while only recording two outs. A few growing pains. He has 21 strikeouts already. But he’s allowed 17 hits and seven walks. So very much a mixed bag.
