There are a lot of things to like about the way the Pittsburgh Penguins are playing right now. They are on a six-game winning streak that has put them right back into the thick of the Eastern Conference
playoff race, they are getting key players back and there is not much to suggest the recent success is a fluke. They seem to have worked through their third period issues — at least for now — and have rebounded incredibly well from that ugly losing streak that could have let things slip away from them this season. They are not only winning and producing good results, they are playing extremely well and have a good process in place behind those good results.
The forward depth is coming together. The power play is still clicking. The penalty kill and fourth-line look completely different with Blake Lizotte back in the lineup. They look good across the board.
The one thing that is really sticking out to me, however, is that the Penguins overall defensive play is rapidly improving, and the numbers paint a pretty telling picture of that.
When the Penguins were winning their games early in the season there was something of a smoke-and-mirror element to it. Goaltending was driving a lot of the success, as was an offense that was able to simply generate more than they gave up (thanks also in large part to the power play success). They were also giving up a lot. Especially through the first 10-20 games of the season.
That is starting to change over the past 10-25 games. The Penguins are still generating a lot of offense and chances, but they are also doing a significantly better job locking things down on the defensive side. It might be the most encouraging development of the winning streak. This was also happening to a degree before the winning streak started. They were only doing it for 55 minutes instead of 60 minutes during that stretch. Now they are getting more of the 60-minute process.
The table below looks at the Penguins 5-on-5 defensive metrics over various stretches of games, including the first 10, 20, 30, 40 and current games, as well as the past 25 and 10 games.
We are looking at shot attempts against per 60 minutes, expected goals against per 60 minutes, high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes, expected goals share percentage and actual goals against per 60 minutes.
Look at how the rankings steadily improve with each segment of games. Then look at how good they have been over the most recent stretches of games.
It would be premature to say the Penguins are a good defensive team, or that all of their defensive concerns are suddenly gone. Their overall numbers for the season are still hovering around the middle of the pack, and that is still the largest sampling of games that we have. It is, however, fair to say that they are getting better, and have been playing very well defensively over their most recent stretches of games and are trending in the right direction.
The eye test seems to back this up. You do not see as many odd-man rushes going back the other way. They are not getting stuck in their own zone for extended periods of time.
If the Penguins are going to be a playoff team, and then have any chance of doing anything if/when they get to the playoffs, that improvement is going to have to continue. They also might still need to add some help somewhere on the defensive side if they are looking to add something before the trade deadline. The Penguins should not necessarily be in the market of trading future assets for short-term rentals, but if they can find a young, NHL defenseman with team control that should be high on their shopping wish list.
They are getting better. There is still some room to grow. The progress is still encouraging. It is also playing a significant role in their recent success.
