Tyler O’Neill’s debut season in Baltimore was a disaster. The 30-year-old was placed on the IL three times for three different ailments. He had neck inflammation in April, a left shoulder impingement in May, and right wrist inflammation in August. That limited him to just 54 games and a .684 OPS. One season into his three-year, $49.5 million deal, it’s was looking like a bad investment by the Orioles front office.
But the team won’t be ready to move on after one poor campaign. O’Neill is back and
expected to play a major role on a team looking for an offensive rebound. He has the potential to be a significant factor in whether or not that happens. The reason the Orioles were willing to pay him so much going into 2025 was his impressive showing with the Red Sox, where he had an .847 OPS with 31 home runs in just 113 games during the 2024 season.
Here’s the Orioles’ current outfield picture: Taylor Ward was brought in to start everyday in left field and provide reliable pop. Colton Cowser is penciled in as the center fielder day in and day out. O’Neill is expected to share right field with Dylan Beavers and likely get some at-bats as the team’s DH as well. Leody Taveras is looking like the “fourth outfielder” that can backup everywhere, but particularly in center. Heston Kjerstad is lurking in the background, likely bound for Norfolk to begin the year, where he can prove if he is past the health struggles he dealt with last summer.
O’Neill’s path to “everyday” at-bats is a bit muddier than it was a year ago, when he came in as the highly-paid key addition. There’s pressure on this team to win a lot of games and make a playoff run. If that includes O’Neill as the right fielder most days, then that is where he will be. If it means taking him out of the lineup more frequently to keep him fresh, then so be it.
Here is what two prominent projection systems expect for O’Neill in 2026:
- ZiPS: 349 PA, .238/.321/.456, 18 HR, 13 2B, 49 RBI
- BRef: 352 PA, .230/.316/.447, 17 HR, 14 2B, 41 RBI
The two projections are nearly identical. The 350-ish plate appearances they expect is particularly noteworthy. That would peg O’Neill at playing in 90 or so games. Looking at his career numbers, that feels like a fair estimate, basically baking in an IL stint or two.
More importantly, they do expect O’Neill to bounceback at the plate and produce right around his career average numbers (.242/.320/.463). That would be an acceptable outcome from the Orioles’ perspective. Getting around 20 home runs and a .770 OPS from a part-time outfielder probably means the offensive overall has taken a nice step forward.
And although the sample size for 2025 is small, there is evidence that O’Neill played better than his topline numbers suggest. According to Baseball Savant, his expected slugging percentage was .523, and his expected wOBA was .360. Both numbers would have been in the top 20% of MLB if he qualified. So maybe we aren’t too far away from an O’Neill breakout in Baltimore.
What do you think of these projections? Do you think O’Neill will stay healthy enough to make an impact in 2026? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section.
