The San Francisco 49ers travel to Naptown to take on the Indianapolis Colts. One team is surging and playing for the No. 1 seed, while the other is fighting for its playoff hopes.
The Niners are going to get the Colts’ best punch on Monday night. It’s a game Indy needs, so expect Shane Steichen — one of the brightest offensive minds in the game — to throw the kitchen sink at Kyle Shanahan on both sides of the ball.
Let’s dig into the matchup on both sides of the ball, starting with the area where the 49ers
make their hay, through the air.
49ers passing attack versus the Colts’ passing defense
The table above supports Kyle Shanahan as Coach of the Year. Despite playing a handful of games with a backup quarterback and not having Ricky Pearsall for six games — not to mention George Kittle missing time— the 49ers’ passing attack remained lethal.
This season, they’ve had three performances that have been below expectations. The argument of a soft schedule also doesn’t hold up, as you can see, the passing defenses are mostly stingy from an EPA perspective.
Here are some of the passing game rankings through 15 weeks:
- 2nd in passing success rate
- 4th in passing DVOA
- 4th in passing first down percentage
- 4th in passing yards per game
- 8th in dropback EPA
The Seattle Seahawks’ passing attack played like a team that wasn’t trying to lose last week’s game against the Colts. We saw Kyle Shanahan call plays that way in the second half against the Panthers in Week 12, but the last two weeks suggest he has the utmost confidence in his quarterback.
Darnold had 36 attempts against the Colts, and only two passes beyond 20 yards. Only eight of those passes went past 10 yards. And it’s not as if Darnold was heavily pressured. He only saw pressure on nine of his dropbacks.
That lack of pressure works in the 49ers’ favor. Against the Titans last week, Brock Purdy was pressured on 41.7 percent of his dropbacks. If that number seems high, it was 51.6 percent before the bye week against the Browns. Oddly enough, Purdy seems just as comfortable when the bullets are flying, and opposite colored jerseys are flashing around him.
One thing we can guarantee is that Purdy won’t be gun-shy about pushing the ball down the field. Purdy had three attempts beyond 20 yards against the Titans and another 11 at the intermediate level between 10 and 19 yards. That’s the area where Purdy wants to live, especially in the middle of the field. Last week, he went 5-for-6 for 95 yards between the hashes beyond ten yards. That’s Purdy’s wheelhouse.
We’re not saying the 49ers are as potent as the Rams’ passing attack, but when Matthew Stafford went against the Colts way back in Week 4, he was 4-for-4 over the middle of the field at the intermediate level with a touchdown. He also completed two other passes at that depth.
If that feels like cherry-picking, C.J. Stroud went 3-for-3 over the intermediate portion, but perhaps more importantly, 9-for-10 over the short middle in Week 13 against the Colts. The week prior, Patrick Mahomes was 9-for-11 over the short middle and 3-for-6 for 99 yards at the intermediate and deep portions. Before the bye week, the Colts went against the Falcons, who never throw the ball over the middle. Michael Penix went 3-for-4 for 45 yards in the intermediate portion.
Opposing offenses have avoided the Colts’ strong suit on the outside and attacked their linebackers. When the Seahawks began moving the ball late in the game last week, they threw it between the hashes. So, it’s no surprise to see the Colts allowing the fifth-most yards in the league to tight ends.
On the season, the Colts are 12th in DVOA against the pass, 14th in dropback EPA, and 21st in dropback success rate. Indy could potentially get back cornerback Sauce Gardner this week. They may also bring back an old friend of ours, DeForest Buckner.
Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has blitzed 27.7 percent of the time this year, good for the 13th-highest rate in the NFL. The Colts’ pressure rate is 34.2 percent, good for 17th in the league.
Indy has five players with at least 20 pressures. They’re led by 2024 first-round pick Laiatu Latu, who has cooled off a bit production-wise in recent weeks, but that likely coincides with Buckner’s absence. There are no “gimmes” up front. We can expect Anarumo to bring pressure off the edge and force Spencer Burford, Jake Brendel, and Dominick Puni to hold up 1-on-1. Blocking this front will be a challenge.
Identifying the mark: The player under the Shanascope this week will likely be linebacker Zaire Franklin, who the Seahawks targeted seven times last week. Franklin allowed 84 yards on six receptions and gave up four first downs. Mahomes attacked Franklin six times and was rewarded with five receptions for 82 yards and three touchdowns.
If Monday night will be your first time watching the 49ers offense, they have a tight end who has yet to be stopped this season.
Player to know: One player who could give the Niners fits is Adetomiwa Adebawore, a defensive tackle who is a stellar athlete with a knack for causing chaos. While undersized, Adebawore’s quickness can be a pain in the you-know-what. Interior pressure tends to cause more havoc than from the edge. Despite only playing nine games, Buckner is still in the top 20 among defensive tackles in total pressures. Adebawore isn’t far behind with 25.
The Colts’ defensive tackle duo is more worrisome than their edge group, which is why quick passes and an effective run game will go a long way toward slowing them down.
Advantage: The 49ers have thrown the ball on seemingly everybody they’ve faced this season, save the team nobody throws it against (the Texans). While the Colts are bound to win their 1-on-1 matchups up front, they’re 25th against the pass without blitzing and 19th when they don’t get pressure. We’re talking about Shanahan’s scheme against a defense susceptible to passes over the middle of the field. That same scheme has led to the 49ers ranking No. 1 in sacks allowed and second in third-down efficiency. The Colts are 24th in both stats. Indy will make Brock Purdy beat them, but that will play into the Niners’ hands.
49ers rushing attack versus the Colts’ run defense
The Colts are 31st in passing yards per game, but are fifth in rushing yards per game. When you see stats like that, it’s generally a sign that teams don’t waste time doing one thing when they know they can succeed doing the other.
That’s not the case for the 49ers, who have Christian McCaffrey. Despite this, their running game hasn’t gotten off the mat this season. Still, relative to expectation, they’ve been better than expected:
Success rate has long been my favorite stat. It tells you how consistent a team is from down to down and whether they are effective in situational football. The 49ers’ rushing attack is far from explosive, but their success rate suggests they’ve done enough to keep the passing attack out of longer down and distance situations. That’s been the key to the offense this season.
The Colts are fourth in rushing EPA allowed. The 49ers’ schedule has prepared them well for this matchup, as they’ve faced each of the top seven defenses in rushing EPA allowed, excluding the Colts, and seven of the top 10. Like most defenses want to do, the Colts look to stall your ground game on early downs, get you into obvious passing situations, and look to create pressure looks from there.
Here’s how the Colts’ run defense has performed during the previous month:
- The Seahawks averaged 2.3 yards per carry on 22 attempts against the Colts, with the longest rush being 8 yards
- The Jaguars averaged 3.2 yards per carry on 32 attempts, with a long rush of 28 yards propping that total up
- The Texans averaged 3.2 yards per carry on 34 attempts, with a couple of rushes for 16 and 13 yards
- The Chiefs averaged 3.6 yards per carry on 41 attempts, with two 10+ rushes of 13 and 18 yards
It’s been tough sledding for everybody. But notice how many carries the Colts are allowing. Jason Aponte wrote that the Colts are closer to the middle of the pack in defending runs outside the tackles. The Colts are 22nd in yards per carry against outside zone runs, which the Niners are fourth in the NFL in frequency. It’s another area where the offense should be able to play keep away and possess the ball.
Out of the bye week, the 49ers predominantly ran behind Trent Williams and Dominick Puni. However, Christian McCaffrey’s longest rushes came when he ran behind Colton McKivitz. McCaffrey had five carries for 26 yards running to the right edge.
Sometimes, numbers are either inflated by specific instances or performances. That’s not the case for Indianapolis’s run defense, which has an argument that they are better than their 13th-ranked rush DVOA defense. The 49ers are 19th in rushing DVOA.
The 49ers should be able to keep Adebawore at bay, as he’s more of a pass rusher. The Colts shouldn’t pose many 1-on-1 issues for the 49ers in the running game, although DeForest Buckner will have a say in that. Where Indy’s defense excels is its secondary, all of whom contribute against the run. They are truly a team defense.
Player to watch: Nick Cross is the player the 49ers have to handle. The wide receiver blocking has improved significantly with Ricky Pearsall returning to the lineup. Cross is a nuisance.
He’s the kind of player who will make you regret using a receiver to block him. Cross will line up at the apex of the formation between the tackle and the receiver in a condensed split. He will test the 49ers’ physicality. If the tight ends and wideouts can block No. 20, San Francisco’s running game should continue to trend in the right direction.
Advantage: Push. When the 49ers need to run the ball, they can. They are much better situationally than many might think, and have fared better than expectation in most of their games. The Colts are stingy on the ground and aren’t the type of unit that gives up much of anything against the run. I don’t see many advantages for either side in this one.
What to make of the Colts offense under Philip Rivers against the 49ers defense
There’s no sense in going over season-long numbers for the Colts because they just signed a quarterback and have only played one game with him under center.
During the season, the Colts rank fourth in deep passing but 20th in quick passing. But with one game of Philip Rivers, only two of his 28 attempts were over two yards. He threw more passes behind the line of scrimmage (9) than he did between 0-9 yards (8) and at the intermediate level between 10-19 yards (6).
Here’s the conundrum with Rivers. Are things going to get better the more he plays and gets comfortable with the receivers around him, or will more film on Rivers lead to a precipitous decline for a player fresh out of retirement?
There’s also a significant difference in opponent. Teams aren’t scheming against the 49ers’ defense the same way they do against the Seahawks. Last week, Rivers’ 2.36-second average time to throw was the 9th-quickest by any quarterback in a game this season. Teams are averaging 2.83 seconds to throw against the Niners’ defense this year. The dichotomy between Seattle and San Francisco’s defense couldn’t be greater.
On paper, the matchup advantage on the perimeter goes to the Colts. Michael Pittman, at 6’4″, 220 pounds, and Alec Pierce, at 6’3″, 211 pounds, are difficult matchups for anybody. That escalates when you factor in Deommodore Lenoir’s stature at 5’10”. Renardo Green was ruled out, and that means Darrell Luter Jr. will get another start.
Pittman does most of his damage on in-breaking routes. He has caught the fourth-most passes (37) on in-breakers. Pierce is their downfield threat. Pierce has been targeted beyond ten air yards on 79.4 percent of his targets, which is the highest in the NFL. So it’s no surprise to see Pierce having the fourth most yardage (693 yards) on those targets.
Does a talent like Pierce become obsolete with Rivers under center? He only had one target last week, but it was a big one. Pittman wasn’t exactly lighting it up last week, with 26 yards on five targets. Slot receiver Josh Downs had 13 yards on five targets, while rookie tight end Tyler Warren had six targets but only 19 yards.
The 49ers are 25th in passing DVOA, 24th in dropback EPA, and 24th in dropback success rate. They are 31st in quarterback pressure rate. Robert Saleh’s plan has been to take away the No. 1 receiver and tight end, while the other pass catchers are how you are going to beat the 49ers. San Francisco ranks 11th at defending the No. 1 wide receiver and eighth at tight ends in DVOA, but falls to 27th and 30th defending the No. 2 and No. 3 receiver, respectively.
Stylistically, Josh Downs couldn’t be a better matchup for Upton Stout in the slot. It’s impossible to predict Eric Kendricks’ usage or how the Colts will alter which areas they attack the Niners, if at all.
The Colts only used play-action on three of Rivers’ 28 dropbacks last week. He went 2-for-2 for two yards. Play-action passes are generally drawn up to take shots down the field. Expecting a 44-year-old to be comfortable turning his back on the defense and scanning the field for routes 15+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage doesn’t sound like something that’ll be in the game plan.
According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers are 10th against play-action this season, but 26th versus no play-action. Saleh’s unit fares better the closer the passes are to the line of scrimmage. They are 29th against deep passes, 14th against intermediate passes, and 13th against short passes.
I’m reluctant to give the Colts the edge here because their wide receivers are not the kind that win in the quick game. Pierce and Pittman are long striders that take time to build speed, and aren’t great at changing direction. That’s why the Colts are 20th in quick passing. It’s not as if the 49ers are good at defending those passes, ranking 23rd, but it’s enough to offset the matchup, especially with the Colts ruling out starting left tackle Bernhard Raimann.
Advantage: Push
Player to watch: Rookie tight end Tyler Warren in the red zone. It’s an area where the 49ers must limit the Colts to field goals. Warrent as the 10th-highest red zone target share in the NFL. The Colts will move Warren around the formation. While the 49ers have done well at limiting tight ends between the 20s, that’s not the case in the red zone. The Niners have allowed opposing tight ends to catch 81.3 percent (5th-highest) of their targets and have given up six red zone touchdowns to the position in the red zone this season, which is the fourth-most.
Warren, after the catch, could be the Colts’ second-biggest weapon on Monday night. He has the second-most yards after the catch at 450. That total is the second-highest since 2016. Saleh should be more concerned about Warren on screen passes than the wide receivers down the field.
Can the 49ers show up against the run and slow down Jonathan Taylor?
The Colts are third in rushing DVOA and rushing success rate, and lead the league in rushing EPA. The offensive line ranks 17th in yards before contact, which suggests the running back is decent.
Most rushes where you reached 20 miles per hour this season? Jonathan Taylor. League leader in yards after contact? Jonathan Taylor, at 1,095. Taylor is two behind the league lead of 10+ yard carries and second in most carries for over 15 yards, and forced missed tackles.
The 49ers have used nickel personnel on 79.3 percent of their defensive snaps this year, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Taylor averages 5.8 yards per carry against nickel personnel this season, and has scored a league high nine touchdowns against nickel.
Furthermore, in shotgun situations where Taylor has taken 52.2 percent of his carries, he leads the league with 684 rushing yards, 214 more than the next closest player. Taylor averaged 4.8 yards per carry in these situations, while the 49ers’ defense gives up the second-most yards per carry at 5.3 and the second-highest success rate at 48.9 percent.
If the 49ers don’t tackle, they don’t have a prayer. Taylor doesn’t make it easy, either. He’s forcing a missed tackle rate of 29.8 percent, which leads the league.
Not having the left tackle that’s been there for every game should help the 49ers. Having Sam Okuayinonu as a run defender instead of Bryce Huff at one edge will go a long way, as should Jordan Elliott over Kevin Givens at defensive tackle.
These are the games why you draft Alfred Collins. These are the games where you go down swinging with Stout in the slot and trust him against the run, as opposed to your big nickel packages. The 49ers’ defense with Tatum Bethune at linebacker compared to Curtis Robinson looks vastly different.
Before Rivers, I would have told you that we could expect plenty of two tight end sets from the Colts. Indy runs 12 personnel at the 13th-highest rate in the league, where they averaged 7 yards per play, the second-most in the league, with a league-high 54.8 percent success rate. They also find ways to generate the second-highest explosive play rate at 18.7 percent.
But a second tight end only played 14 of the 60 snaps for the Colts last week, while Downs played 43 of the 60. It’s also worth noting that the Niners have defended 12 personnel teams better than just about any other personnel, limiting them to the fifth-fewest yards per play and a league-low 6.8 explosive rate. Will the 49ers’ base defense look different if Kendricks plays, or will they continue to roll out Luke Gifford? That’s something to keep an eye on.
Player to watch: Luke Tenuta is the backup left tackle. Before last week, Tenuta had not played in a game since 2022. Huff needs to make Tenuta pay in pass protection, but the 49ers can make this matchup less lopsided if they force the Colts to run the ball in only one direction.
Advantage: Colts. They have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, and are at the top at both big plays and on a down-to-down basis. If Indy wins, it’ll be because Taylor runs wild.
