Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS Sports Network
- Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, MD
- Spread: Navy (-14.5)
- Over/under: 44.5
- All-time series: Rice leads, 7-6
- Last meeting: Rice 24, Navy 10 — November 2, 2024
- Current streak: Rice, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Last year’s Rice-Navy game featured over five hours of weather delays and lasted over eight hours. Could this year’s game do the exact opposite and finish in under three hours? It’s certainly a possibility
considering for the first time ever, Navy vs. Rice is an option vs. option matchup.
The Midshipmen have employed varying option offenses for years, currently using a hybrid spread option offense that has adopted elements of the wing-T under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. Meanwhile, the Owls are new to the option game under first-year head coach Scott Abell, running a shotgun-style spread attack that features plenty of pre-snap motions and eye candy.
Expect plenty of ground utilization as the passing game takes a backseat in this American Conference clash.
Rice Owls outlook
Rice (3-1, 1-0 American) is off to its most prolific start since 2001. The Owls already notched road wins at Louisiana and at Charlotte, and they’ll look for a third-straight victory away from home in a matchup with Navy. The Owls bested the Midshipmen as significant underdogs last year in a funky matchup which featured five hours and six minutes of lightning delays. Rice managed to pull off the upset with a stellar run defense that limited Navy to 120 yards (less than half its 2024 average), while passing efficiently on the Midshipmen secondary.
The passing element isn’t exactly a focal point of this Rice offense, but it has improved the past two weeks after totaling just 95 yards in the first two outings. Quarterback Chase Jenkins completed his first seven passes against Charlotte, firing for an efficient 87 yards and a touchdown — oftentimes using the play action and the threat of the run to create downfield openings. While Rice must utilize the passing game from time-to-time, especially in third-and-long situations, the Owls primarily move through their option ground game. Last week, it was the three-headed monster of Jenkins and running backs Quinton Jackson and Daelen Alexander who produced 224 of the Owls’ 255 rushing yards.
Rice possesses plenty of speed in its backfield to make this run game dangerous to the point where it ranks 15th in the FBS with 246 yards per game. Other key components making the Rice gun choice option work are center Nate Bledsoe, who delivered several critical downfield blocks to assist the win over Charlotte and slot receiver Aaron Turner — a former WR1 at UConn turned into a jet sweep specialist under Abell’s staff (92 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 8.2 average).
As strong as Rice’s rushing attack has been, the strength of the Owls remains the defense under newly-promoted coordinator John Kay. Kay was the linebackers coach on staff when Rice stifled Navy to 10 points last November, and he’ll look to create similar advantages on the road Saturday. Last week, it was all about backfield pressure for the Owls. Rice attained six sacks and nine tackles for loss on Charlotte as defensive ends Michael Daley and Tony Anyanwu combined for 4.5 sacks with significant edge pressure. The linebacking tandem of Ty Morris and Andrew Awe has also been highly effective in all facets of the defense. In Week 1, that pressure forced Louisiana to finish 10-of-28 passing. In Week 4, Charlotte only averaged 2.3 yards per rushing attempt.
While Rice’s secondary has shown its talent, flying to the ball for frequents pass breakups, the defensive backs must take on a different role against Navy — especially Khary Crump and the cornerbacks, which must set the boundary and prevent breakaway runs to the outside.
Navy Midshipmen outlook
Navy (3-0, 2-0 American) is one of 30 remaining unbeatens in the FBS and one of three in the American. The Midshipmen already have a significant head-start in the conference title race with two American games under their belt and a potential at a third win on the horizon this weekend.
Navy’s first two conference matchups unfolded in similar fashion. Both Tulsa and UAB remained fairly even with Navy in the first half before the Midshipmen defense delivered the knockout blow in the second half. Brian Newberry’s team won the first halves in conference matchups 45-41 but dominated the second halves by a combined score of 35-6.
Rice will likely be the toughest defense the Midshipmen have faced to date, and the veteran offensive players dealt with many members of this unit last year in a 24-10 defeat. One of those offensive veterans is quarterback Blake Horvath who remains a lethal dual-threat quarterback after throwing for 1,353 and 13 touchdowns and running for 1,254 and 17 touchdowns during Navy’s successful 2024 campaign. Horvath is once again the focal point of the offense with an efficient 328 passing yards through three games, as well as 245 rushing yards on a 6.0 average.
The three main weapons outside of the quarterback in Drew Cronic’s option offense are also averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry. The leading rusher is currently fullback Alex Tecza, the most frequented first read as the up-the-gut option in Navy’s scheme. Other mainstays offensively include slot backs Brandon Chatman and Eli Heidenreich. Heidenreich is a frequent motion man who displays impressive explosiveness on jet sweeps, but he’s even more lethal as a downfield receiving threat. The senior Pittsburgh, PA native has roughly half the receptions on the roster this year, picking up 126 receiving yards in a run-oriented offense. He averages 17.3 yards per reception in his career, so when he runs routes, they are oftentimes well beyond the line of scrimmage.
Navy’s defense didn’t enjoy the most prolific first halves vs. UAB and Tulsa, surrendering a combined 41 points to their conference brethren. However, there are several elements of the Navy defense which have been commendable thus far. One is red zone defense which was a signature of the 2024 Midshipmen. This year, opponents have only notched four touchdowns and two field goals in nine trips inside the 20. Another impressive facet is turnover generation, as Navy collected five takeaways in its two conference outings.
One significant player to watch on this defense is Landon Robinson, who is arguably the best defender in the conference and a freak athlete with tremendous speed, strength, and vertical ability. The reigning first team all-conference defensive tackle already has 19 tackles, five tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks through three starts. But a newer face to monitor is inside linebacker MarcAnthony Parker who operated in a reserve role last year. Parker leads the Midshipmen with 20 tackles in addition to four tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and an interception. Both will play a significant role in limiting Rice’s new option offense.
Prediction
There shouldn’t be too many possessions in this expedited ground affair which should see a running clock at nearly all times. Thus, every offensive series is at a premium between these two option offenses. While Rice made necessary progress in its option attack in a 28-point outing vs. Charlotte last week, the Owls are going against a different animal in Navy’s front — which (1) is accustomed to stopping option concepts and (2) possesses Landon Robinson.
Navy’s defensive struggles have primarily been aerial-related this year, and it won’t have to worry about Rice throwing for 300. On the other side of the ball, Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen offense have scored at will most of the season as long as they aren’t committing turnovers. Navy will face its toughest test yet, but Brian Newberry and the Midshipmen get revenge on Rice this Saturday in Annapolis.
Prediction: Navy 28, Rice 14
