In last week’s fan survey, Brady asked which of these three Giants were most likely to be moved by this year’s August 3rd trade deadline: Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, or Willy Adames?
This was based on Buster Posey’s comments that the entire roster, save Logan Webb, could be had in trade. As Brady pointed out,
That’s easier said than done: Devers is having a huge down year on offense, and owed an ungodly sum of money, while Adames and Chapman are both having down years at the plate, while possessing
no-trade clauses.
I am curious to know how Posey’s statement impacted the clubhouse. We could infer from the quality of play this season that most of the clubhouse didn’t really care, but at the end of the day, even if this is one of the worst Giants teams in our lifetimes, I think a group of professionals will feel the sting of being labeled “expendable.”
Still, Major League Baseball is a business and teams ought to be trying to improve at every opportunity. Trading some proven talent for unproven talent is tradition, and it would be a huge mistake if the Giants didn’t take this opportunity to make at least one big move with their roster.
So, given those names, here’s where respondents landed:
The majority selects Matt Chapman as the Giants most likely to be traded. To do that, Buster Posey would need to convince Chapman to waive his no trade clause. Well, first, to do that, he’d need to put together a deal worth doing. Is such a deal possible?
If the Giants were to move him at the very last moment — Sunday/Monday, August 2nd or 3rd, before their 113th game, that’d give the receiving team just 50 games with Chapman this season, a cost 2026 cost of $7,767,489.81. After this season, Chapman is contracted for 4 more seasons for a total of $100.7 million ($100.668 to be exact). The $25.167 average annual value would be the competitive balance tax number, too, which would be a healthy chunk of any team’s payroll. Yes, we don’t know what the tax situation will be in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and so that makes the projection of a trade even more difficult. The rules are in the midst of changing. Add to that Chapman’s age over the next 4 seasons — 34, 35, 36, 37 — and you’ve got an expensive player setup to decline and possibly eat up precious payroll space.
At the tail end of May I looked at Chapman’s season to that point and came away from the analysis concluding that it wasn’t the age that was catching up to him, it was (probably) his circumstances. With a new coaching staff installed and a new baby on the way in his personal life, the hitting metrics suggested that it was more focus than ability that was causing his down numbers.
I still think that’s the case! Here in June, he’s hitting .250/.365/.500 (.865 OPS) in 104 plate appearances with 5 home runs, 3 doubles, and 14 walks against 25 strikeouts — and, his defense continues to be Gold Glove caliber. As of SABR’s June 7th drop of their Defensive Index rankings (a component of the Gold Glove voting), Chapman was the second-best defender in the National League behind Pete Crow-Armstrong. Matt Chapman has been MATT CHAPMAN here in June.
But, he’s also 4-for-his-last-43 (50 PA)! This is the rollercoaster experience any team could expect when acquiring him. Given market rates, that could still be a $25+ million a year player, but the moment that defense starts to go his value plummets immediately. Maybe sticking him in a better lineup and in a more favorable hitters’ park could extend some of his hot streaks and reduce the cold spells, but prior to his Giants tenure he was a Blue Jay hitting in the Rogers Centre, which at the time he played there was in the range of 11th-14th in park factor. So, if we were to let the numbers guide us to a plausible deal, let’s consider the following criteria:
- a really favorable hitters park or, barring that,
- a better lineup than the one he’s presently in so he wouldn’t have to carry the weight; and,
- where his defense could really make a difference.
Let’s see if we can figure out a list of teams just from these factors.
Here are the top 10 hitters parks in 2026:
- Coors Field, 112 Park Factor
- Chase Field, 104
- Target Field, 103
- Camden Yards, 103
- Yankee Stadium, 102
- Fenway Park, 102
- Great American Ball Park, 102
- Citizens Bank Park, 102
- Nationals Park, 102
- Rogers Centre, 102
The Rockies (bad), Diamondbacks (Nolan Arenado / same division), and Twins (Royce Lewis? Kinda-sorta rebuilding?) are out on Chapman. The Blue Jays didn’t re-sign him when they had the chance but did drop some money on Kazuma Okamoto in the offseason and he’s been fine at third (+1.3 Defensive Runs Above Average — 1.9 fWAR overall). So, that leaves us with six teams. Let’s see what happens with the next criteria.
Here are the top 10 lineups right now:
- Dodgers, 119 wRC+
- Pirates, 110
- Yankees, 108
- Cubs, 108
- White Sox, 106
- Brewers, 105
- Nationals, 105
- Twins, 104
- Rays, 104
- Athletics, 103
… 14. Giants, 102
Out: Dodgers, Twins, White Sox (Murakami), Cubs (Bregman), Rays (Junior Caminero & payroll restrictions).
Okay, last consideration:
Here are the 10 worst teams for defense at third base:
- Rays, -5.3 Defensive Runs Above Average
- Mariners, -4.9
- Orioles, -4.6
- Angels, -3.4
- Nationals, -2.6
- Athletics, -2.5
- Tigers, -2.3
- Astros, -0.9
- Atlanta, -0.4
- Pirates, -0.3
Out: Rays (Junior Caminero & payroll restrictions), Mariners (he’d basically be in the same situation in Seattle as he is in SF wrt ballpark & lineup), Angels (bad), Athletics (money, rivalry), Astros (payroll restrictions, already have Carlos Correa slated to play there long-term), Tigers (payroll restrictions & bad ballpark), Atlanta (committed to younger, cheaper Austin Riley long-term).
When I started this analysis, I had thought that the Red Sox and Yankees would be natural fits for Chapman. Buster Posey already has a trade relationship with both teams. The deal that saw the Red Sox walk away from Kyle Harrison — after having walked away from Alex Bregman — in order to land Caleb Durbin to play a solid third base always seemed too clever by half, but it has worked out for Boston from a defensive perspective (+4.2 Def — 7th). Durbin is hitting just .231/.286/.393 (83 wRC+), but he’s picked it up in June: .325/.360/.614 (162 wRC+ in 89 PA), so, Boston would probably want to commit its dollars elsewhere if they’re looking to improve their roster. Same with the Yankees, who are getting about league average performance from Jose Caballero there right now and otherwise platoon him with Ryan McMahon.
Phillies*
I also thought the Phillies would be a great place, too, and maybe that’s still the case. I can’t believe Alec Bohm is still there, but I also can’t believe that the Phillies’ defense at third base hasn’t been a total disaster. Bohm is rated by SABR as the worst defender at the position (-3.8 SDI) but the FanGraphs’ rating puts the team in the middle of the pack. So, maybe if we allow that FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average isn’t the arbiter of success here, then there’s a possibility; but this would almost have to be a desperation move on the Phillies’ part, and I can’t totally see them doing it.
They have a $285 million payroll for 2026 (projected end of year, per Cot’s) with $216 million committed already for 2027. Just to balance the money on their end, maybe the Giants could take on Alec Bohm & Adolis Garcia’s expiring contracts ($20.2 million AAV) and pay some of Chapman’s deal for the remainder of this season, but is pure salary relief enough for Buster Posey? I don’t think it should be. And in terms of prospect capital, Philadelphia doesn’t have much to offer from a depth perspective, meaning they’d want to hold on to their few great ones, especially if they’d be taking on another veteran on the downside of 30. So, I’ll keep them in the back of my mind, but discount that possibility for now.
Instead, the best fit for Chapman — which may or may not lead to the best deal for the Giants, if they were to convince him that a trade is in his best interest — might be one of these teams:
Orioles
Coby Mayo and Blaze Alexander are holding it down at the hot corner right now, but Alexander’s 119 wRC+ is more indicative of his status as a part-timer than as evidence of a breakout in his age-27 season. Both he and Mayo’s defense have been approaching -10 runs of value and according to SABR, Mayo has been worse than Alec Bohm (-4.9 SDI). He’s still just 24 and a once-heralded prospect, but maybe that just makes him expendable in a trade for a different player after acquiring Chapman from the Giants?
Baltimore has a new owner and the team upped its payroll commitments significantly this offseason, with a projected year-end amount of $167.6 million. Next year, they have just $67.8 committed, so, Chapman wouldn’t put them in a tough spot even if there were to be a salary cap. The Orioles have a lot of interesting position players throughout their organization. But could Chapman be convinced to waive his NTC to move to Maryland?
Nationals
They’re probably 2 years too “early” in terms of their next competitive window and they don’t have enough pitching to be competitive in the postseason, but imagine if their brand new, ultra young, and McCovey Chronicles-inspired front office said, “Y’know what? Let’s give it a shot?”
But could Chapman be convinced to waive his NTC to move to Maryland?
Pirates
Anecdotally, Pittsburgh Pirates fans seem to be driving most of the “MLB NEEDS A SALARY CAP” frenzy and so it would be a great irony if they made it to the postseason thanks to an offseason uptick in spending coupled with a major trade at the deadline to upgrade a position of need.
Nick Gonzales has been the second-worst third baseman in the NL behind Alec Bohm (-2.9 SDI) and while the 27-year old has managed to hold it down well enough (103 wRC+, +0.2 Def, +1.2 fWAR), Chapman would be a quality veteran upgrade for a team trying to really make some noise. They’re just 2 games out of a Wild Card spot as of publication.
Additionally, Pittsburgh’s payroll commitments for next season are just $63.411 million after things like the player health care benefits (~$18.5 million) and mandatory contribution to the pre-arbitration bonus pool ($1.67 million), so, Chapman wouldn’t hurt them at all and set them up to get closer to a minimum salary floor should the owners win and impose a cap but also improve their team a great deal at least for this season. He’d also continue a trend of former Giants going over to Pittsburgh and helping out.
PNC Park’s park factor of 101 is 12th this season which is, of course, much better than Oracle Park’s (97 — 26th). But could Chapman be convinced to waive his NTC to move to Maryland Pittsburgh?
But what do you think? Do any of these teams make sense to you or do you think that a trade would be with a team not on this list?
Would you even bet that the Giants will trade Matt Chapman this season? Sure, Casey Schmitt could slide right in to the third base job and there’d be a decent chance we could let Chapman’s memory fade more easily than, say, Matt Duffy’s — but you could also put Schmitt at short or second base following a trade of either of those guys.
Personally, I’m not convinced that trading Matt Chapman would be a net positive for the team. Same with Willy Adames. And, I just think that moving Rafael Devers is danged near impossible. But, yeah, the Giants have got to do something. Winning answers a lot of questions that losing raises, but so do trades. They just might not always be the most tension-relieving responses.
