Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight rivals Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Jan. 31, 2026) inside Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, for UFC 325.
Tonight’s
main event is a tremendous example of how a fight can be both a great matchup and terrible booking. Obviously, I’m not going to fully turn my nose at an all-time great Featherweight champion versus one of the most exciting new additions of the last few years. Despite Dana White’s advice, not watching would be self-flagellation for any true fight fan.
This rematch is very likely to be a great fight.
Unfortunately, it’s not one that makes a lick of sense. Volkanovski hasn’t fought once since upsetting Lopes a year ago in a clear-cut victory that bolstered his legacy. There’s no such potential gain on the line for Volkanovski in the second dance, as he either beats up Lopes a second time for no clear reason or coughs up his title. In a division where deserving contenders like Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy very much exist, it’s a shame Volkanovski is forced to run laps.
All the same, let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Betting Odds
- Alexander Volkanovski victory: -148
- Alexander Volkanovski via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
- Alexander Volkanovski via submission: +1500
- Alexander Volkanovski via decision: +140
- Diego Lopes victory: +120
- Diego Lopes via TKO/KO/DQ: +310
- Diego Lopes via submission: +650
- Diego Lopes via decision: +650
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Volkanovski Wins
However you organize your personal Featherweight GOAT rankings, Volkanovski is one of the best fighters of the last decade and a real genius chameleon of a competitor. Volkanovski can pressure relentlessly, counter from the outside masterfully, break opponent’s down with low kicks, chain his wrestling, and deny takedowns with the absolute best of them.
Perhaps most importantly, he always brings the correct tool for the job.
Their first fight — which, again, was only 9 months ago — was a masterclass in footwork and lateral movement against a big hitter. Volkanovski consistently off-balanced and turned Lopes, never allowing him the opportunity to set his feet. As he followed, Volkanovski was chipping at him with jabs and low kicks, as well as planting with heavy combinations himself on his own initiative.
The game plan here remains the same, but I’d like to see Volkanovski work his wrestling more often. Lopes’ power means the margin for error on the feet is slim, and Volkanovski’s reactions have slowed a bit over the years. The one time he really committed to wrestling in the first fight, he pummeled Lopes without much issue, so that may be safer path to victory.
How Lopes Wins
Lopes is a massive Featherweight with a granite chin and major knockout power. He has sharp timing on his counter punches, creates brutal impacts in close range clinch exchanges, and has a heavy low kick too. On the canvas, Lopes is a very slick submission ace capable of scoring kick finishes.
Just four of his 27 career wins came via decision.
Lopes fought rather poorly in the first Volkanovksi matchup, and he still hurt the champion badly on two separate occasions. Imagine what could happen if he fought with a bit of tact?
In the first bout, Lopes was so badly hampered by his own footwork. He followed Volkanovski around while stuck in the mud, eating lots of punches and failing to cut off the cage. In fact, Lopes has the chin to be aggressive and take chances with his footwork by staying directly in front of Volkanovski. That exposes him to punches, but he was getting hit anyway — might as well give himself a better chance at landing too!
Generally, Lopes has to do a better job of closing distance with his shot selection. The one time he knocked Volkanovski down came off a double jab-right hand, and he could use a lot more of that. I’d also really like to see Lopes using his kicks to cut off the cage and making the Octagon feel smaller force Volkanovski, who across his entire career has shown issues with pulling straight back and getting hit along the fence.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Prediction
When the first fight happened last year, I backed Lopes to win via knockout largely largely because of his status as the younger, bigger athlete against the aging great. Volkanovski turned back the clock, Lopes fought poorly, and yet Lopes still badly hurt Volkanovski on two separate occasions.
Generally, it’s much easier to do better in the rematch as the losing fighter than the winner. For most of 25 minutes, Lopes’ flaws were carefully explained to him by the consistent teacher that is Volkanovski’s right hand. He’s a couple minor adjustments away from landing more often, and Volkanovski taught him well what those adjustments should be.
If Lopes accepts the lesson, it’ll make the difference. Volkanovski is the undeniably greater and better fighter, but age wins the day much more often than not.
Prediction: Lopes via knockout
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 325: “Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
