Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, September 18 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium — Charlotte, NC
- Spread: Rice (-2.5)
- Over/under: 42.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 3-3
- Last meeting: Charlotte 21, Rice 20 — September 28, 2024
- Current streak: Charlotte, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Two programs over 1,000 miles apart by driving distance have shared an on-field bond that’s spanned over two conferences. This marks the fifth-consecutive year Rice and Charlotte collide on the gridiron and history puts the two on a level playing field, with the 49ers taking three of the six matchups and the Owls claiming the other three.
But this particular Charlotte vs. Rice matchup is placed on a higher pedestal than the previous installments. It’s a Thursday night nationally televised game on ESPN’s
flagship network, pitting two new head coaches — Tim Albin and Scott Abell — against each other in an American Conference opener.
Charlotte 49ers outlook
Charlotte (1-2, 0-0 American) picked up the first victory of the Tim Albin era in Week 3 but really had to work cut to slide past Monmouth of the FCS. The 49ers trailed by a touchdown in the third quarter and needed a touchdown with 90 seconds remaining in the fourth to improve to 1-2.
Getting involved in a 42-35 shootout was beneficial for Charlotte’s offense which was in severe need of a pick-me-up after generating one touchdown and 14 total points through its first two weeks. However, allowing 410 passing yards and 35 points to an FCS team demonstrates the 49ers have plenty to shore up on the defensive side heading into the conference opener.
Quarterback Conner Harrell enjoyed the best game of his collegiate career, firing for 382 passing yards and three touchdowns on an efficient 26-of-30 showing while adding two additional scores as a rusher. That game should work wonders for Harrell’s confidence as he hopes to replicate the performance in the same venue five days later. Harrell established a lethal connection with E. Jai Mason during the Monmouth game, hitting the premier receiver 10 times on 10 targets for 228 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Mason’s 228 receiving yards are the most by a 49er since their 2015 move to the FBS and most by any FBS player this season.
Saturday presented a nice boost for the passing offense, but Charlotte’s rushing attack remains a struggle. The 49ers are 127th nationally averaging under 93 rushing yards per game, operating as one of 10 teams below 3.0 yards per carry this season. And to contextualize the rushing struggles – it’s not even sack-driven. The 49ers are tied for 15th in the country with just two sacks surrendered as the Jonny King-led pass protection remains one of the better components of the team.
Merging the offensive and defensive outputs together, Charlotte’s turnover margin sits at a -6 which is tied for fourth-worst in the nation. Ja’Qurious Conley’s touchdown-saving forced fumble on the 1-yard line against Appalachian State stands as the defense’s lone takeaway, and they’ll look to hunt more against Rice’s option offense.
Conley is certainly a hub for turnover creation as one of the team’s strongest hitters. He ranks atop the 49ers with 20 tackles in addition to having a forced fumble and fumble recovery in the young season. Other key Charlotte defenders include linebackers Reid Williford and Shay Taylor. Williford racked up seven tackles in the win over Rice last September and the longtime 49er currently leads his team with two sacks. Taylor, a transfer who followed Albin from Ohio, brings MAC championship experience and execution to the unit with 19 tackles and two tackles for loss on the year.
The biggest improvement Charlotte seeks defensively is within its own 20-yard line. Opponents have cashed in points on all 11 red zone trips against the 49ers this year, scoring touchdowns on nine of them. Charlotte must do a better job in coverage with its back against the wall, turning 7-point trips into 3-point trips or 0-points if it can get the turnover game going.
Rice Owls outlook
Rice (2-1, 0-0 American) is off to a strong start to the Scott Abell era. The Owls took a flyer on a unique offensive scheme when hiring the former Davidson head coach, who led some of the best rushing attacks at the FCS level. Through three contests, it’s clearly working considering Rice pulled off a road win as double-digit underdogs to Louisiana and currently ranks 14th nationally in rushing yards per game.
There are motions on every play, and there’s tons of pre-snap eye candy that can mix up defenders the second the ball is snapped. The average game sees nine different ball-carriers, ranging from the quarterback Chase Jenkins to the primary running backs Quinton Jackson and Daelen Alexander to the slots and receivers motioning for jet sweeps. Rice earned a clean 347 rushing yards against its FCS opponent, but it inflicted 206 yards of damage on Louisiana in Week 1 — showing the potency of this new scheme.
The three aforementioned rushers are over 140 yards on the year. Jackson leads the charge as the feature back, while Jenkins is fresh off his best collegiate game ever with 124 rushing yards and a touchdown against Prairie View. There is also Aaron Turner, who formerly served as UConn’s leading receiver in 2022. In a brand new role, Turner provides explosiveness to the offense, averaging 11.1 yards per carry and scoring twice on just eight jet sweep attempts.
The main burden of Rice’s offense is a lack of explosiveness in the passing game. If teams stop the option on the initial downs, the Owls need to prove they’re equipped to handle third-and-long situations. Rice ranks 96th nationally with a 36.6 third down conversion percentage, but it is second-to-last in the FBS with 70.0 passing yards per game. Progress was shown last week when Jenkins threw for 87 yards after combining for 95 in his first two starts. Similar to the service academies, passing isn’t the bread and butter of Rice’s shotgun option offense, but the Owls will need a stronger aerial presence to succeed.
Defensively, Rice has been excellent outside of the second half vs. Houston. The Owls let up one touchdown to Louisiana in Week 1 and held a shutout against the Cougars for 29 minutes and 20 seconds of action. With former linebackers coach Jon Kay rising to defensive coordinator, the scheme remains similar to prior years and the linebacking corps is the heart of the unit. Ty Morris and Andrew Awe combine for 38 tackles, five tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks as the chief disruptors.
The secondary features a handful of newcomers including Khary Crump (Michigan State) and Jack Kane (Oregon State), concocting a potent passing defense which ranks 24th nationally in fewest yards allowed. Opponents have completed just 48.7 percent of passes on the Owls — as Rice ranks fourth in the FBS in that category. The defense is quite aggressive at the line of scrimmage and subject to the occasional breakaway run, but otherwise, it’s a unit that can alone keep games within striking distance even if the offense stutters.
Prediction
Charlotte got the taste of a high-scoring barnburner last week against Monmouth, but this week should see a return to a lower-scoring game where the defenses reign supreme. Rice has that effect on opponents and can muddy up the game with its defense and its clock control. If the Owls run the ball the way they did in the first three weeks, there should be a severe lack of possessions in this one, so each one counts that much more.
The 49ers feature the more explosive offense considering what Conner Harrell and E. Jai Mason proved a week ago, but Rice’s passing defense is an effective counter. Meanwhile, the Owl option offense provides just enough production to secure their first 3-1 start since 2001.
Prediction: Rice 17, Charlotte 16
