The Phillies went hog wild on Pitching in last year’s draft. Will they go back to that with a Razorback this year? Baseball America projected it, so may as well write this up and see what they’d be getting if they went back to an arms race this year (last pun, I promise). Hunter is a 6’6” 235 lbs Lefty with less than 2 inning pitched in college prior to 2026. He did pitch 11 VERY BAD innings in Cape Cod last summer, but those were essentially rehab starts after almost 2 years not pitching. Now that I’ve
freaked every reader out with a pile of red flags, lets get to the good stuff: Dietz has been very good this year with 13.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 over 85 and 2/3 innings. There are still some control worries, but he’s shown this year he can likely get to and stay at average control.
More to the red flags he missed time his Freshman year due to a stress fracture in his elbow his Freshman year and an ulna bone injury in recovery that delayed his return. Plus side is no tendon injuries, but man, those are both extremely adjacent to the UCL. He has a workhorse build, if he can stay healthy he could be a very solid mid-rotation to maybe even #2 Starter.
His pitch mix includes a mid-90’s 4-seam Fastball that he can get up to 98 mph. He has an over the top delivery and backspin, which creates a lot of carry. His delivery is a bit max effort and has lead to command problems with this pitch. He also throws a upper 70’s/low 80’s Curve that he’s shown good control and feel for and could be a second plus pitch. He recently added two other pitches a Slider/Cutter he throws in the upper 80’s, which shows good potential and plays well off the 4-seamer, and a Changeup, which exists. His overhand delivery also helps create really good heavy angle on the break of these pitches. Some reports list the Curve as his best secondary, some list the Slider/Cutter. The Changeup is going to be the key weapon that decides if his ceiling is Starter or high leverage BP option. He needs feel for the pitch and to match his fastball arm speed. He doesn’t need to get it to be plus, just to not be a potential meatball.
I’ll pop a video of Dietz in here and I’ll note that he looks like he’s having a light tossing session while throwing 95 mph Fastballs in there. One thing I don’t like is his stride is pretty short. Not much extension there, it’s an oddly rotational delivery. With hitters you often talk about linear and rotational swings. Not often do those words get used on Pitchers, but it fits here, he is a very rotational member of a rotation. I honestly have no idea if it’s good or bad, but given his injury track record it does make me curious. I looked at a dozen plus videos hoping for some video from around a First Base side camera, but games are all center field cameras, so I couldn’t find any. It’s hard to tell just how short the stride is, but his stuff seems to get good movement, he does have pretty poor command that come and goes. There may be a push to extend his stride to make use of his height and also to perhaps unlock average or better command.
The Phillies have taken guys in the past with short College track records in the hopes of unlocking ceilings not yet reached (Griff McGarry, Spencer Howard), so this does fit their MO, but Dombrowski/Preston Mattingly/Brian Barber have only drafted one College player in the First Round and that was last year. Additionally, Howard never found command of his stuff and Griff only vaguely has any idea where his pitches are going. So it may be their MO, but it hasn’t exactly worked out and even the supplemental part of Round 1 would be a surprising time to lean into the experiment. Dietz’s lack of a real Changeup and extensive injury log also creates a pretty sizeable reliever risk profile. While this stuff would probably play well in that role, it’s an underwhelming result for a top draft pick.
I will also admit I was trying not to write up Pitching this year after how heavy the team went on arms last year, however 2 straight BA mock drafts have had the Phillies selecting Dietz so I kind of felt like I should write this one up. While I like that there’s some untapped potential with Dietz, there are also so many red flags that I just can’t get excited about him. I wouldn’t be upset if the Phillies took him, but I’d be a bit underwhelmed.
