The trade deadline is only a couple of days away, and the Cardinals are bracing for yet another shakeup. Assuming Dustin May, Ryne Stanek, JoJo Romero, and possibly Pedro Pages are dealt, the team is going to look significantly different down the stretch. Best-case scenario, the Cardinals pull a 2024 Tigers move and sell at the deadline and make a playoff run anyway. Even if the team does fade out of contention, there will be plenty of exciting storylines to follow and opportunities for players to step
up. The Cardinals need to be hyper-focused on giving runway to players who could turn into long-term solutions, not on players who can get them from 76 to 78 wins this year.
There is not a significant 40-man roster crunch looming for this offseason, but it is still worthwhile to check in on the current state. The 40-man is currently full with two players, Max Rajcic and Ramon Urias, on the 60-day IL. That gives the Cardinals 42 players with four pending free agents bringing the total to 38. Looking at the players who will need to be added in the offseason to avoid Rule 5 Draft exposure, I count eight players who are locks to be added or should be given serious consideration: Quinn Mathews, Cade Winquest, Jesus Baez, Ixan Henderson, Jacob Odle, Chase Davis, Chen-Wei Lin, and Won-Bin Cho.
Even if the Cardinals felt the need to protect every one of these players, there are plenty of marginal players on the back end of the roster who could be removed. Tink Hence, Max Rajcic, Peter Strzelecki, Nolan Gorman, Cesar Prieto, and Nelson Velazquez are the most obvious players who could be at risk of losing their spots.
All that to say, I do not think that any trade deadline moves will be made specifically because of a need to clear space on the 40-man. The more interesting question to me is whether and how the Cardinals reshape the roster to provide maximum playing time for players who could have the biggest long-term impact on the organization.
Starting Pitchers
40-man (8): Hunter Dobbins, Kyle Leahy, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Dustin May, Cooper Hjerpe
40-man IL: Richard Fitts, Tekoah Roby
How the Cardinals manage the starting rotation down the stretch appears to be pretty simple to me. May will be traded and Hjerpe seems more likely to debut as a reliever if he gets a cameo at some point. That leaves six pitchers to fight for innings down the stretch. McGreevy and Pallante are both fully built up as starters and will need 50+ innings apiece. The rest of the rotation has a bit more nuance, but I would argue they should all get consistent starts.
Kyle Leahy has been a resounding success in his move to the rotation. After a shaky start, he has posted a 2.65 ERA since the beginning of May. His FIP over that stretch has been excellent at 3.37 and his xFIP has been solid at 3.91. He really has been pitching more like a mid-rotation starter than a back-of-the-rotation guy for the last three months. Leahy has thrown 107.1 innings thus far, which is his most since 2022 and already more than the 88 innings he threw out of the bullpen last season. It seems reasonable that the Cardinals would try to get him into the 130 to 140 range.
Hunter Dobbins is in a similar position as Leahy on the workload front. He pitched 88.2 innings last year and has thrown 96.1 so far in 2026. Dobbins isn’t the highest ceiling guy in the world, but he looks like he belongs in a major league rotation.
Quinn Mathews’ long-awaited debut is finally here! Mathews threw 143.1 innings in his breakout 2024 and 99 last season. Coming into his start today, he is at 92 innings pitched on the season, so innings limitations would not seem to be a huge factor down the stretch for him. Barring a complete lack of effectiveness, Mathews will be penciled into the rotation for the remainder of the year.
Finally, Liberatore… I think the Cardinals should and will give Libby the remainder of the season to sort things out in the big league rotation. Yes, he has had a rough go of it in 2026, but he still might possess the most upside of any member of the current rotation. I don’t want to get into a full autopsy of Liberatore’s season because it has been bad, but you can’t give up on a guy who has his durability and ability to spin the ball.
With the potential innings limits for Dobbins and Leahy, the Cardinals can easily get all six of these guys regular starts by going to a six-man rotation, skipping a start here and there, or employing some piggybacking. It has quietly been an awesome season for the starting staff and a strong finish will provide much more clarity heading into 2027.
Relief Pitchers
40-man (12): Ryan Fernandez, Luis Gastelum, Brycen Mautz, George Soriano, Matt Svanson, Justin Bruihl, Gordon Graceffo, Riley O’Brien, JoJo Romero, Ryan Stanek, Peter Strzelecki, Tink Hence
40-man IL: Max Rajcic
I actually think the relief corps could be quite interesting the rest of the way. In addition to the twelve healthy pitchers already on the 40-man (depending on what is going on with Tink Hence), the Cardinals will still need to add Cade Winquest at some point. Cooper Hjerpe also seems like a logical guy to bring up later in the year, contingent on performance.
With only seven to nine bullpen spots available, there will need to be some serious prioritization done. I want to give as many innings as possible to pitchers who have a chance to be impact relievers, even if they aren’t pitching well now or aren’t quite ready.
O’Brien and Soriano are immediate and obvious locks. Gastelum is a lock as well. Sure, it has been a rough start, but you aren’t giving up on one of the best relievers in the minor leagues after ten innings. Cade Winquest is my next lock. All of his underlying metrics point to a dominant performance in Triple-A. Brycen Mautz has had a disappointing season as a starter, but his fastball is playing up since his move to the pen. He has a chance to be a weapon in shorter stints. Matt Svanson and Ryan Fernandez have not lived up to the standards they set in their respective rookie seasons, but both have shown the ability to be impact relievers. I would rather give these guys a chance than fill in with waiver-wire claims or strike-throwers that cannot miss bats.
Trade Stanek and Romero. Trade Bruihl if you can get anything for him. Trade or demote Graceffo. If any of Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, or Ixan Henderson gets hot, give them a shot.
Outfield
40-man Roster (9): Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Nathan Church, Victor Scott, Joshua Baez, Jose Fermin, Bryan Torres, Thomas Saggese, Nelson Velazquez
There were moments this year when you felt really good about the outfield, but as the season winds towards a close, the Cardinals are back in familiar territory with one of the worst units in baseball. Jordan Walker has posted 2.3 fWAR as an outfielder this year. The rest of the outfielders have contributed exactly 0.0 combined WAR.
I really like Jose Fermin and Bryan Torres, but they seem pretty maxed out as utility players. Nathan Church is fine, but he is closing in on 300 plate appearances and has not been able to figure out major league pitching. It is not the end of the world if he continues to soak up playing time, but he is looking like a bench bat on the next contending team. I think Scott gets another chance at some point, but he will have to show something in Memphis first. Saggese has a roughly league-average line in Memphis since his demotion, but he is also looking like a utility bat long-term. Velazquez isn’t really an outfielder. I understand why he has stayed on the roster to help against left-handed pitching, but he should not be getting at-bats if the Cardinals fall further out of contention.
So, how do the Cardinals optimize playing time down the stretch? You have Walker entrenched in right field, Nootbaar with only one year of control remaining, and one real prospect in Joshua Baez. Given the lack of internal options ready for outfield playing time, the Cardinals can be very selective about their required return in a Nootbaar trade. If they don’t get the package they want, he really won’t be blocking anyone even if they do plan to trade him in the offseason.
Joshua Baez should absolutely get a chance to play full-time down the stretch. The Cardinals can deploy the Masyn Winn program and keep him rookie-eligible for 2027 while letting him get his feet wet. I understand that some people want to see him cut down on his strikeout rate more before promoting him, but that is overthinking it. Six weeks in the majors is not going to damage his development, even if he does flop.
If the Cardinals can turn some combination of May, Nootbaar, Pages, or whoever else they are willing to part with into an upper level outfield prospect, they should do so. If they are stuck giving playing time to stopgap and utility players, it would be a huge wasted opportunity.
Infield
40-man Roster (7): Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, Blaze Jordan, Nolan Gorman, Ramon Urias, Cesar Prieto
The infield is relatively straightforward compared with the outfield. Unless there is a shocking trade, Burleson, Wetherholt, and Winn will be written in pen. At third base, Jordan is the exact type of player that should be prioritized down the stretch. The fact that his defense has looked playable has been a huge win thus far. While his batting line is downright terrible, his underlying metrics provide plenty of reasons for optimism. He has cut his chase rate from 38% in Triple-A to 34.8% with the Cardinals. He is still making a ridiculous amount of contact for a player with his power potential. I would write his name in the lineup every day and see what you have at the end of the season.
Gorman and Urias may both have negative trade value despite their low salaries, but if there is any interest, they should be flipped just to clear out roster space and save a little money.
Catcher
40-man Roster (4): Ivan Herrera, Jimmy Crooks, Pedro Pages, Leo Bernal
Ah, the catcher conversation that keeps on giving. If the Cardinals still feel that Herrera has a chance to improve his throwing enough to stick at catcher for a few years, you might as well let him finish out the season. Trading Pages to pave the way for a September callup for Bernal would be my ideal outcome. This would allow even more playing time for Crooks in the meantime and provide room for Bernal to get his bearings.
Conclusion
I focused on the roster if the Cardinals make the obvious moves. Of course, there are plenty of rumors circulating about Herrera, O’Brien, and other controllable players. I don’t think it is inherently wrong to explore those talks, but I also think that you can get a lot of value out of just cleaning up the roster and promoting the remaining upper-level prospects.
If the Cardinals take this aggressive approach with their roster construction, there might be some growing pains, but it is the right thing to do for the long-term vision. Give Liberatore, Crooks, and Blaze Jordan time to figure things out. Let Mathews, Bernal, Baez, Winquest, and Mautz take their shots. Now is not the time for half measures and risk mitigation. Let’s see what the kids can do.
