I need to put together my predictions for the Cleveland Guardians in 2026 and I am at a loss.
Inside me are two wolves: One wolf fiercely believes in this manager, this organization’s ability to get the most out of a little, in Jose Ramirez, and in Austin Hedges. The other wolf knows that projections doubt this starting pitching staff and the offense, which was 28th in wRC+ last season, will be relying almost entirely on internal improvements and prospect graduations to improve.
See, if David Fry can
get back to being a 120 wRC+ bat against LHP and take late-inning at-bats from Austin Hedges (and Bo Naylor against tough southpaw relievers) and work his way back into right field reps, this team looks a lot better. But, if Fry is the 75 wRC+ hitter he has been since June 2024… not so much.
See, if Gabriel Arias can just manage a 90 wRC+ and play gold glove level shortstop defense, and if Brayan Rocchio is the 100 wRC+ and sparkling defender at second base he was from July-October, this middle infield would be suddenly competent. But, if both are the 75 wRC+ hitters, no amount of glove work is going to make up for that.
Now, if Arias and/or Rocchio flop, the Guardians do have Juan Brito and Travis Bazzana ready to play second base, potentially. Brito has elite pulled fly ball abilities and a good eye at the plate, and Bazzana has shown some signs of being an electric performer both at the plate and, surprisingly, in the field. But, also, Brito’s defense has looked incredibly shaky at times, he lacks elite exit velocity and has shown some contact issues in Spring Training at times. Bazzana, meanwhile, has flashes of brilliance at the plate, but also still seems far too passive and there are still questions if he will realize his potential.
See, if Kyle Manzardo can build on his 2025 and increase his home run and walk output, we can have a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter! But, he still has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game and his defense at first base this spring has looked somehow even worse than last season’s efforts.
See, if Rhys Hoskins is the 120 wRC+ hitter he has been for his career, a lot of the Guardians’ issues are solved! Especially if he’s 130 wRC+ or more against LHP! But, he could also be more like a league average bat unable to punish fastballs as effectively now that he has entered his 30’s.
See, if Bo Naylor has made some needed adjustments, he could be the #5 hitter the Guardians need and that he looked to be in September of 2025 and through most of this spring! But, if he is the mediocre defender and 85 wRC+ hitter he was for most of last season… the team will be hoping for Cooper Ingle to figure things out behind the plate QUICKLY.
See, if Chase DeLauter and George Valera can just be healt… well, you know the fears here.
See, if Steven Kwan can hold up playing centerfield, and either Stuart Fairchild or Angel Martinez can manage a 110-120 wRC+ against LHP… but none of that is at all a sure (or likely?) thing.
I feel very good about the Guardians’ bullpen, but Hunter Gaddis’s forearm scare has reminded me that the depth behind Smith, Armstrong, Gaddis and Sabrowski isn’t necessarily amazing…
Finally, the Guardians’ rotation… this group was a top 5 rotation to end the season and I truly think they have potential to be that, or at least top ten. But, is it the Arizona climate that has made Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo look shaky, or is it some projections being unsure about them showing up? Is Slade Cecconi hurt, why isn’t he starting today? Are they really going to start Logan Allen over Parker Messick?
I don’t know why but I can’t remember feeling so conflicted about what to expect from a Cleveland Guardians’ team going into a season. I know what I will be rooting for, of course… another Hall of Fame season from Jose Ramirez, huge steps from the organization’s many exciting young potential stars, more accolades for Carl Willis as he leads another amazing season from the many exciting young arms on this team. And, a little extra joy for me each and every day I get to hear Tom Hamilton on the radio, see our boys light up my TV screen, pick out which of my dozen Guardians’ hats I’m going to wear to help them find all the luck they need, and I learn, yet again, to live and die with every pitch, every swing, and every new ballgame.
