Entering 2024, there were high expectations for Jose Ferrer and the kind of breakout he could have after a strong 2024 season where he posted a 3.38 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 32 innings. While his season didn’t get off to the best of starts, posting an ERA over 5 in the first half of 2025, he was showing signs of turning it around, such as a 3.26 FIP and elite strike-throwing ability. He did indeed find another gear in the back half of the year, posting an ERA of 2.16 in July and 1.46 in August, finishing
the second half with a FIP of 2.64 and an ERA of 3.54 after a few rocky outings in September.
The loss of Kyle Finnegan at the trade deadline was a rough blow for the Nats’ bullpen as a whole, but when it came to just the closer position, Ferrer held down the spot admirably, saving 11 games and blowing just one in the 2 months after the trade deadline. The end result in 2025 was a 4.48 ERA and 1.4 fWAR for Ferrer, not quite where fans were hoping he’d end up, but once again with impressive underlying numbers, such as a 3.03 FIP and walks per 9 under 2 for the second straight year.
There are many reasons I believe 2026 is the year Jose Ferrer turns himself from a shaky reliever with great stuff into one of the most dominant closers in baseball. For starters, the stuff he has is pure filth, such as his sinker, which he sits 97 MPH with and can run into the triple digits, as well as a changeup with similar movement but a whole 10 MPH slower.
Ferrer’s sinker is the reason he is one of the best pitchers in baseball at keeping the ball on the ground, as his 64.3% groundball rate was in the 99th percentile in MLB. Part of the reason Ferrer’s FIP is continually lower than his ERA is that he’s had incredibly sloppy infield defense behind him his whole career, something that will hopefully be improved by new field coordinator Tyler Smarslok, who took the Marlins from 29th to 14th in infield defense in one year in Miami.
Another reason I am so high on Ferrer is his ability to limit free passes, as he ranked in the 90th percentile or better in walk rate for the second straight season in 2025. Ferrer doesn’t get a crazy amount of chases on his pitches, sitting in the 51st percentile in that department, making it more impressive that someone with his stuff can control it and throw it for strikes as often as he does. Relievers can be extremely volatile, especially those that give up lots of fly balls and walks, but Ferrer is able to limit both of those at exceptional rates, giving him a very high floor for a reliever and just as high a ceiling.
The third reason, and perhaps the most important one, that I’m so high on Ferrer entering 2026 is that he has a new pitching coach that can fully maximize his potential in Simon Mathews. While Jim Hickey is not a bad baseball mind and certainly played a role in getting Ferrer to where he is now, Mathews brings knowledge to this organization that no one has before, and can help Ferrer reach that next level that he’s so close to.
So, what does Ferrer need to work on to reach his full potential next season? While it may be a little backward thinking, I think throwing fewer strikes would actually be beneficial to Ferrer’s success. By throwing more balls and risking more walks, Ferrer would see benefits such as increased strikeout numbers and less hard contact, as hitters can’t be in full attack mode knowing Ferrer is going to pound the zone.
Ferrer currently throws his sinker way more than his changeup and slider, 71% of the time in 2025, and while it’s a devastating pitch, it makes him somewhat predictable to hit against, especially for right-handed hitters, who hit .323 against him as compared to left-handed hitters, who hit .186. An increase in usage of Ferrer’s slider and changeup, both great chase pitches, each with whiff rates over 40%, would keep hitters more off balance against him, thereby raising his strikeout numbers and bumping down his hard hit rate.
Overall, while 2025 wasn’t quite the Ferrer breakout year we thought it would be, the ingredients of one of the best closers in baseball are still there, and with a new coaching staff in town, it just might be unlocked in 2026. With any luck, there will be lots of leads to protect and games to win for Ferrer as the Nationals’ closer next season.
