12. Gabriel Hughes (340 points, 18 ballots)
Hughes is now over two years removed from a Tommy John surgery that cut a promising first full professional season short for Colorado’s first pick in 2022 (10th overall with an under-slot $4 million bonus). The 24-year-old 6’4” right-hander was ranked more as a late-first rounder than a top-10 pick by national prospect watchers at the time, but the Rockies obviously liked the starter’s frame, feel for pitching and the three-pitch mix. The former two-way player has a fastball that sits in the low-mid
90s and a bulldog mentality that has been compared to Max Scherzer (you can see some of that in the video below).
Mid-season 2025 Rank: 11
High Ballot: 1 (1)
Mode Ballot: 12
Future Value: 40, starter depth
Contract Status: 2022 First Round, Gonzaga University, 40 Man Roster, three options remaining
MLB ETA: 2026
Hughes pitched well in High-A in his first full professional season in 2023. He threw 37 2⁄3 innings across eight starts with a 5.50 ERA (3.48 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 rate, and 3.6 BB/9 rate. The xFIP and high K/9 rate indicate better stuff than the raw results delivered, and the Rockies agreed by promoting Hughes to Double-A Hartford in early June. Hughes was 3.4 years younger than league average, but he mostly held his own, even if the ERA didn’t bear that out. In 29 innings over six starts, Hughes had a 7.14 ERA but a 4.06 xFIP with a 1.55 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate for Hartford. It was a good first full professional season for Hughes, but unfortunately it ended due to the injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in July.
Hughes rehabbed the injury throughout the 2024 season but was able to make Colorado’s Arizona Fall League roster. He started six games, throwing 17 1⁄3 innings with a 8.31 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 rate, and 5.2 BB/9 rate. The numbers weren’t impressive, but scouts at the AFL reported his stuff had largely returned post-surgery and he was working on developing his breaking balls.
In 2025, Hughes returned to Hartford, where he was still 1.7 years younger than average. In nine starts there, Hughes got good results in short bursts (he was limited to five innings per start), throwing 41 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 rate, and 1.8 BB/9 rate — earning him a late May promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque.
In the tough Pacific Coast League, Hughes faced an uphill climb. In 14 starts there, Hughes (as expected) posted worse run prevention numbers across the board (5.11 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 rate, 4.2 BB/9 rate) in 61 2/3 innings. These starts were interrupted by a month-long IL stint between mid June and late July (and a brief rehab start in the ACL). After returning, Hughes ramped up his pitch count (the highest was 96) and pitched into the sixth inning in three straight starts.
Though Hughes didn’t blow upper minors hitting away in 2025 or go super deep into games, his blended 4.19 ERA in 105 1/3 innings in 24 starts was an encouraging sign in his first full season post-Tommy John. It was enough for the Rockies to add Hughes to the 40 man roster this offseason.
Here’s some video on Hughes from 2024 instructs and the AFL courtesy of FanGraphs:
In the report accompanying the above video, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs grades Hughes as a 40 FV player (down from 45 preseason), 18th in the system with a 55 future grade on the changeup and a 50 future grade on command and slider:
Hughes attacks with a 93-94 mph fastball that often has a little bit of natural cut. His breaking stuff has plateaued; his 85-88 mph slider/cutter is average and lives off of his command, while his 79-82 mph curveball is well below average. Toss out Hughes’ surface-level AFL stats because he was clearly working on this curveball a ton during that stretch. His changeup, a tailing upper-80s offering, is getting better and might be his best pitch at peak. It often has enough tail to run off the front hip of lefty batters and back into the zone. Hughes’ prototypical size, athleticism, and arm action augur more changeup growth, as well as strikes and efficient innings. Hughes won’t be dominant, and I’m perhaps not appreciating how homer prone he’ll be sitting 93 in Colorado, but he should work efficiently and eat innings enough to be a team’s no. 4/5 starter during the regular season.
Keith Law of the Athletic recently listed Hughes 18th in the system:
Hughes’ stuff is down from pre-surgery, as he was sitting 90-92 in Triple A last year with fringe-average breaking stuff, bearing in mind that Albuquerque is about a mile high (with help from Walter White) and that may be contributing to Hughes’ problems. It was Hughes’ first year back post-surgery, so I want to believe the stuff will tick up with another year; as is, he’s a reliever, and probably would be better off in the majors than going back to pitch on the surface of a small Jovian moon again.
MLB Pipeline ranks Hughes 14th on the system list last year as a 45 FV player with a 55 slider grade to pair with 50 grades on the fastball, curveball, and control:
Hughes was able to use his 17 1/3 innings in the AFL to shake some of the rust off and the good news is that his stuff looked pretty much back to where it was pre-injury. His fastball averaged 93 mph and touched 96, thrown with good sink to frequently get ground-ball contact. His cutter-like slider was regularly in the mid 80s, a hard breaker that flashed plus in the past, and he has some feel to spin a slower 80-82 mph curve, though it’s behind the harder breaking ball. His upper-80s changeup is starting to improve as well.
Throw out Hughes’ surface numbers in the AFL given they came from his first post-surgery innings. He generally was around the zone previously, though his up-tempo delivery could get out of sync and cause timing issues, which in turn would lead to control problems. His ceiling might be somewhat limited, but once he really puts TJ behind him, he could be a big league back-end starter soon.
John Trupin of Baseball Prospectus ranked Hughes 15th last January:
At his healthiest, Hughes has looked like an efficient, mid-rotation workhorse, befitting his 10th overall selection in the 2022 draft. That’s meant low to mid-90s fastballs and a medley of off-speed that all plays up thanks to plus command. That all evaporated in mid-2023, as Hughes saw his velocity and stuff fall off, a sure sign of concerns that led ultimately to the surgeon’s table. Out recovering and rehabbing all of 2024, Hughes can hopefully return to the mound in full in 2025. He’ll have plenty of company in the rehabbing circuit, with several of the most promising arms in the system making their way back from TJ alongside him. His physicality and athleticism is encouraging in spite of the surgery, as the 6-foot-4 righty has the frame to flesh out a more durable existence.
Hughes is a starting pitcher prospect with pedigree and polish, though he probably won’t be a star, which is why I ranked him as a 40 FV player, 18th on my list. His 2025 Hartford performance and late-season run in Albuquerque was encouraging given how he’s working to fully trust his stuff post-surgery. As a 40-man roster spot holder, Hughes will be a candidate for the Rockies’ rotation this spring, though I expect him to be an up-and-down contributor to the team in 2026.
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