The World Cup began on June 11, and over 17 days, 48 teams play 3 games each to complete the Group Stage. Today, we begin the next phase of the greatest event in sports. Of the 48 teams, 32 have advanced to the Knockout Stage for a 5-round single-elimination tournament. The round of 32 begins today with a single game, followed by five straight days of three games apiece.
I want to take a look back on what happened in the Group Stage and then glance ahead to what is still to come. In my World Cup preview,
I laid out the favorites, discussed the American team’s chances, and shared my prediction. Let’s see how things have gone so far.
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How are the favorites doing?
Here again are the top ten pre-tournament odds:
All of those ten teams advanced out of their group. The team with the best pre-Cup odds that did not qualify for the Knockout Rounds was Uruguay, who were 15th. For the top ten teams above, only France and Argentina swept their group games. Aside from them, Mexico was the only other team to go 3-0-0, though it should be worth mentioning that the other 3 nations in Mexico’s group were seemingly trying to not advance, with all three scoring just two goals apiece across their group games.
Just because all the top teams advanced, it doesn’t mean they have looked the part of a favorite. Spain only scoring five goals in 3 games probably has their supporters concerned, and there still may be some lingering questions about Lamine Yamal’s recovery from a recent leg injury. England went three straight halves without scoring until ending their drought in the 2nd half of their last match against Panama. Portugal only won one game while settling for a pair of draws, and Belgium did the same. Germany took a loss to Ecuador. Norway did lose to France, but they were already secured of a spot in the next stage, so they were resting virtually all their starters. The Norse should be feeling good right now, as should the Dutch.
Who have been the best players so far?
I mentioned several names to know ahead of the tournament. No surprise that from those names are the players who have scored the most goals. Argentina’s Lionel Messi opened the tournament with a hat trick to move into a tie for all-time World Cup goals scored (16). He then scored two more in the second game to claim the record for himself with 18. With the group already clinched, Messi did not start the third game. He entered at the 60-minute mark and shortly thereafter scored his 6th of the tournament and 19th career World Cup goal.
Kylian Mbappe scored two goals in each of France’s first two games before settling for a pair of assists in game 3. He now sits at 15 career World Cup goals. His teammate, Ousmane Dembele, also has 4 goals thus far including a hat trick in game 3 against Norway to clinch the group for France.
Brazil’s Vinicius Junior and Norway’s Erling Haaland (who did not play in their third game) also have scored four goals apiece.
How are the Americans doing?
Team USA opened their group games with an emphatic 4-1 victory over Paraguay, and the game was even more lopsided than the score indicated. The Americans played with historic levels of ball control and time spent in the opponent’s penalty area. Suddenly, sports journalists all over the country were drinking the Kool-Aid and talking about a deep run.
In their second game, Team USA looked dominant again in the first half, as they bounced out to a 2-0 lead at the break. But in the second half, Australia looked like the stronger side, though they never were able to crack the scoreboard and it was a second win for the Americans. Later that day, Paraguay defeated Turkey in their game, which meant that Team USA clinched 1st place in the group.
With nothing to play for in the 3rd game against Turkey, Team USA made a number of changes to their starting XI. Even so, they jumped out to an early lead, scoring just three minutes in. Turkey, who was already eliminated from advancing to the Knockout Stage, would score a couple of 1st half goals to hold a lead at halftime. In the 2nd, the Americans notched an early goal to tie the game. As both teams made their substitutions throughout the second half, the speed increased with both teams having chances to score. The Turks did not want to go home without a win, and the American hosts were trying to sweep through the group. In the end, more than seven minutes into the 2nd half stoppage time and with just seconds to go until the final whistle, Turkey scored a tap-in when a cross-goal pass snuck past the U.S. goaltender and a pair of defenders to the foot of a streaking Turk attacker. Turkey got the 3-2 win.
No worries though. The U.S.A. clearly was not concerned about getting the win.
Any Cinderellas?
With the expansion from 32 to 48 teams for this edition of the World Cup, it meant that 1 out of every 3 teams in the field would not have even qualified 4 years ago. Or, in other words, there was 1.33 teams in each group who was only included because this year’s version was supersized. As a result, there were a number of games that were highly uncompetitive. Germany beat Curacao, 7-1. Canada shutout Qatar, 6-0. Spain did the same to Saudi Arabia, 4-0. Portugal and Senegal each put up 5 unanswered against Uzbekistan and Iraq, respectively. Iraq and Tunisia each gave up 12 goals on their way to losing all three group games and having the tournament’s worst goal differentials.
And with the expansion, we had four nations making their debuts in a World Cup. Three of those nations – Curacao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan – finished last in their group. But there was one little upstart. A small island country off the west coast of Africa, a country with a population of just over a half-million (smaller than Detroit), was playing the role of “The Little Engine That Could”. In their opening game, Cabo Verde shocked the world by holding tournament favorite Spain to a 0-0 tie. They followed that up with another draw, 2-2 against Uruguay. Going into the final group game, they were tied for 2nd in the group along with Uruguay. But the way things were going elsewhere in the field, this group was unlikely to see its 3rd place team advance, so Cabo Verde would need a better result than Uruguay. Spain did the island nation a favor by defeating Uruguay, 1-0. Cabo, thus, just needed to get a tie against Saudi Arabia to advance. The Saudis, for their part, could have advanced with a win of their own, so they were all-in. The game was played at a frenetic pace, especially late, as both sides were looking for the winning goal. In the end, neither could crack the opposing net. But the scoreless draw meant Cabo Verde secured a third point to take 2nd place and advance to the Knockout Stage.
What are the best games in the round of 32?
This will be the largest bracket for the knockout stages of the World Cup. It had only been a 4-round, 16-team field since the 1986 competition. Even with the extra round, fans don’t have to worry about diluted talent as there will be a few games featuring intriguing matchups. I am most anticipating a number of games featuring African teams. Morocco, a semifinalist in 2022 (best ever result for an African team) and the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations winner takes on a tough Netherlands team. Ghana only surrendered two goals in group, including keeping England off the sheet; they will take on an inconsistent Colombia squad. And, while highly unlikely that they can continue their fairytale run going against defending champion Argentina, Cabo Verde is worth watching.
Aside from those, the United States has an interesting challenge. As group winners, they will be facing a third-place team, Bosnia-Herzegovina. While the USMNT is the more talented team, B-H is massive; they are the tallest team in the tournament so if the Americans try to rely on set pieces and lobs into the box, they could find scoring to be particularly infuriating.
Updated Predictions?
I will begin with my expectations for the U.S.A. Before the games began, I predicted a win in the round of 32 for the Americans, but then a loss in the round of 16. I do believe a victory over Bosnia-Herzegovina is written in the stars. That would put Team USA up against the winner of Belgium vs. Senegal. I’ll go ahead and predict Belgium to come out of that game to take on the Americans.
If that ends up being the matchup, it would be the 3rd time the two nations have gone against each other in a World Cup. The first was at the inaugural 1930 event when the US won a Group Stage game. More recently, Belgium knocked out the Americans in the round of 16 in 2014. It could easily be argued that the US has looked better than the Belgian team through three group games. This potential game would be on American soil, in Seattle. I feel much better about this matchup than I would about facing a number of other teams that should still be alive in the second round. I will say if this is the game we see, I think the USMNT could win that.
If America can reach the quarterfinal round, the possible opponents would be Spain, Portugal, Croatia, or Austria. Most likely, we will see a round of 16 contest between neighbors Spain and Portugal. You know I am picking Spain there, which would end the World Cup career of Cristiano Ronaldo. If we do see USA vs. Spain, which would take place in Los Angeles, there is no way I would be able to pick the home team. So I will say best case scenario is two wins and an appearance in the quarterfinals.
My pre-tournament pick was for Spain to win it all in an all-European final. I believed that the other finalist would be France or England. Of the 32 advancing teams, 13 are from Europe. Only three teams went through Group with a perfect 3-0 record: France, Argentina, and Mexico. Mexico achieved that mark without allowing a single goal. France, Germany, and the Netherlands have drummed up the most offense, each scoring 10 goals in phase one.
Have I seen anything to make me change my mind about Spain? Well, Spain has played large stretches without their biggest star, Lamine Yamal. Against Cabo Verde, he only came on in the 71st minute. Against, Saudi Arabia, he only played in the 1st half. And against Uruguay, he was subbed out after 76 minutes. In effect, he has only played half of Spain’s minutes. It feels like a safe assumption that Spain would have generated more offense had Yamal played more. It also feels safe to say that his minutes will not be restricted moving forward as it is win-or-go-home time. Hopefully, his leg is 100%.
The two teams that have impressed me most, relative to my initial expectations, and that have me reconsidering their chances to win it all are Argentina and Netherlands. Lionel Messi certainly does not look like someone who turned 39 a few days ago as he leads all scorers. And the Dutch are getting strong contributions from all over their roster, veterans and newcomers, forwards and midfielders and defensemen.
While France deserves credit for their group sweep, an asterisk has to go next to the Norway match since the Norse did not put out their normal starting lineup. And Senegal and Iraq do not exactly count as impressive wins. England has star power but may have an issue with staying focused and sharp for 90 minutes.
I will say I am less sure of Spain than I was three weeks ago when I wrote the previous World Cup article. I will consider them as one of five teams I could realistically see winning it all, along with Argentina, England, France, and the Netherlands. The Spanish, though, are still the ones I am cheering for, so I will maintain my pick of them winning their second World Cup trophy, but if I had to pick a different team, I would say that Argentina will defend its title.
Enjoy the next three weeks.
