There are tiny samples, small samples, and large samples. The first two are not to be trusted and the last one takes a while to kick in. In between you get the “medium samples” of a half season, that point where you can argue the significance but folks start to rightly say that what you see is what you’re getting.
As a team the A’s are right around a .500 team and that’s what they have been all season. Perhaps they are due to collectively come together, get healthier, and surge and maybe they are due to lose
contact with the .500 mark and plummet to the depths of their run differential and team ERA.
What seems more clear than the team data is some individual data. Beware of 1/2 season data: it led to optimism around Zack Gelof that was shattered for the next 2 seasons and it got Lawrence Butler a big contract extension that looked like a miscalculation for the next 1.5 years.
But some medium sized data is accurate, especially when it simply confirms what you already saw in the days leading up to it…
Max Muncy, 3B
All the wish-casting in the world won’t make Muncy a viable candidate to start games at 3B. Not to kick a man when he is down — Muncy’s error last night, which was incorrectly ruled a hit, gave the Angels a late lead they rode to victory — but it’s not a one play or one game thing.
In just 316.2 innings (the equivalent of about 35 full games), Muncy has a major league high (or low) -10 DRS and a terrible -5 oAA. It leaves Muncy at -8 career OAA at 3B in 567.1 innings (about 63 full games).
At the plate, Muncy continues to be a “dangerous” hitter and coming into last night’s game he actually had 13 RBI in 14 games since returning from the IL. But that is distinct from his being a good hitter who makes up for terrible defense with a potent bat. Muncy stands at .232/.297/.413, 92 wRC+, 32.3% K rate, for the season due to his consistently bad swing decisions.
This is not Muncy-bashing as he may well have a useful role as an infielder who can play 2B/SS/3B and might thrive in more of a platoon role. But this 1/2 season has simply corroborated that if you play him at 3B you make your team worse. Luckily this problem should solve itself when Gelof comes off the IL and with Jacob Wilson presumably back at SS Muncy can vie with Jeff McNeil and Alika Williams for one spot on the diamond.
Starting Rotation
The projection systems were unkind to the A’s rotation pre-season and they were not wrong. The emergence of Gage Jump has certainly, well, jump-started the group’s ascent but even Jump and JT Ginn cannot mask that the A’s rotation is a weakness.
Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale have settled into mediocrity at the back of the rotation, Jack Perkins has been consistently inconsistent, while younger hopefuls Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales have been unmitigated disasters forcing new and less talented blood into the mix. Luis Severino’s injury didn’t help but he was a #1 SP only in name anyway.
More than anything, the A’s pitchers have proven they simply cannot pitch at Sutter Health Park — no one finds it easy but A’s opponents keep things from getting out of hand better than the home team does, which is why the A’s are a ghastly 14-21 in their “home” park. The A’s home ERA of 6.11 is MLB’s worst, hands down.
Sadly here, help is not on the way as top prospect Wei-En Lin will undergo Tommy John surgery instead of rising to the big leagues in 2026 and other top prospect Jamie Arnold hasn’t been quite the “fast mover” the A’s had hoped. Kade Morris is a “back end SP” type who won’t move the needle in any meaningful way.
So until further notice, e.g., a trade, the A’s will have win despite their rotation more than because of it.
Nick Kurtz
On the positive side, despite a slow start and recent slump, Kurtz has proven that 2025 was no fluke and that in fact he is, hands down, one of MLB’s premier hitters period. Putting all his ups and downs together, Kurtz is batting a gaudy .280/.424/.527, 160 wRC+ for the season.
Although…a look under the hood does suggest Kurtz’ stats would look quite different if he didn’t play his home games in a launching pad. Did you know that on the road Kurtz is batting a far more pedestrian .253/.385/.422, 127 wRC+? In Sacramento he is a “first ballot HOFer” .308/.463/.637, 192 wRC.
But Kurtz’ 17.6% BB rate even on the road reflects that wherever he bats he is one of the most feared hitters in the game. And at 23, only now in his first full season, Kurtz is not done improving and adjusting to become the best hitter he can be.
Jacob Wilson
For good reason, the A’s and we fans can’t wait for Wilson’s return to SS. He has been sorely missed and the news he could return as soon as today is most welcome.
That being said, Wilson’s weaknesses are catching up to him and as of June, 2026 Fidgety Guy is not “starting SS in the All-Star game” good — not even close.
Wilson’s .134 ISO in 2025 was a revelation and until his hand injury sapped his hitting he was batting around .350. But Wilson continues to chase most everything, under the false premise that just because he can, physically, make contact with a pitch he should try to put it in play.
Wilson’s chase rate ranks in the 5th percentile in MLB and he has routinely gotten out swinging at pitches that were, quite literally, a foot out of the strike zone. The result is an ISO of just .109 in a very uninspiring .277/.310/.386 batting line, with an expected BA of just .262 and expected slugging but .335.
Fortunately, as Wilson’s hitting has taken a big step back his defense has taken a big step forward (+6 OAA compared to -3 OAA last season). He remains a valuable player overall, but until he figures out how to hunt strikes instead of just “any pitch I can reach,” he is not more than a “solid complementary piece” as demonstrated by his tepid 1.1 fWAR after about half a season.
Summary
Once upon a time, there was going to be a mid-season burst of talent infused into the 2026 team. So even if “what you see is what you get” for the first half, the second half was going to be different thanks to the additions of several truly talented players.
One of them was Jump and we have seen how much a gifted player can help a team. Others were supposed to Braden Nett, Wei-En Lin, Henry Baez, and even Leo De Vries, but injuries stalled each and every one of them and none is on the cusp of contributing any time soon.
This leaves the A’s 2026 season in a bit of a holding pattern, almost literally two steps forward and two steps back. This is about a .500 team that seems closer to teetering and falling than it is to surging. And yet…
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander and if the A’s “are who they are” after 1/2 a season then so is the rest of the AL West and so is the rest of the AL wild card. Seattle is also a .500 team, the Rangers and Astros are flawed, the Blue Jays can’t gain any momentum and the Guardians aren’t “all that”.
All of which is to say that the A’s are highly flawed with no immediate help on the way anymore but so is the rest of the division and league. Which should keep the last 79 games meaningful — if often frustrating.
