At the NFL League Meetings this week, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn made a prediction for which player is set to break out for the Jets in 2026.
This made me wonder a bit about how good Taylor’s rookie year was.
To be honest, I was a bit underwhelmed by Taylor’s performance. I didn’t see much downfield ability or dynamic playmaking after the catch. I also wasn’t terribly impressed with his blocking.
But let’s talk about context.
Did Taylor do well for a rookie?
To answer this question, I decided to take a look at how Taylor’s rookie production compared with all tight ends picked in the second round since 2010.
The results were a tad surprising to me. Taylor’s 44 receptions rated third among second round rookie tight ends in this era. His 369 yards ranked sixth. And his 52.3 percent success rate on targets was tenth (if we throw out Troy Niklas who was seldom used as a rookie and produced a 100 percent success rate on three targets).
The reality is tight end is a difficult position to transition to. Expectations should be limited for rookies, particularly those picked outside the first round.
I’m sure some people who have already made a decision on Taylor will respond to this. People who are high on Taylor will say the numbers sell him short because of his quarterback play. People who are low on Taylor will note the lack of competition for targets.
The truth is no two players are ever in an identical situation, and there are limits to what box score scouting can tell us. More than anything, I have found searching through numbers like this to be better for spotting warning signs than an indicator of future success. Solid rookie production doesn’t guarantee a player will have a successful career, but a lack of it should set off alarm bells.
In Taylor’s case I don’t think there is obvious cause for alarm.
The other players in the top ten in this stretch are Sam LaPorta, Rob Gronkowski, Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Luke Musgrave, Jace Amaro, Dallas Goedert, and Irv Smith, Jr.
Almost all of those players aside from Smith and Amaro have had succesful careers to a degree. We can probably rule out a LaPorta type career arc. We can certainly rule out a Gronkowski level career. But it seems like after year one that Taylor is right on track for a successful career.
Now there is a valid question to be had about whether a quality tight end is really worth the 42nd pick in the Draft. At the time they picked Taylor, my feeling was that it was not. I still think I feel that way. It’s a high second round pick, and it’s still a spot where you can reasonably add an impact player. Most of the players in this class are solid, but aside from Gronkowski, LaPorta, and maybe a prime Ertz I don’t think you have guys who make a massive difference in a team’s success or failure. You more or less have guys who do their jobs well.
Short of Taylor displaying a previously unseen ability to get open downfield or make plays after the catch, I think his most likely good outcome is being that sort of functional quality tight end. That wouldn’t make him a bust, but it could make him a bit of a reach/overdraft. I’m sure that’s an unsatisfying conclusion. We tend to like it when our players fit into neat categories like massive successes or historic busts. A decent player who was selected a tad too high is tough to get emotional over.
But maybe Aaron Glenn is onto something. Maybe he’s got insider information that Taylor is ready to break out. All we can do is hope the coach is right.
