Betting Line: Ohio State -10.5 | O/U 47.5
Despite losing consecutive games for the first time in the regular season since 2011, the Ohio State Buckeyes have somehow opened up as double-digit favorites for Saturday’s matchup against Northwestern. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Ohio State has been installed as a 10.5-point favorite for a pretty anticlimactic Big Noon showdown at Ohio Stadium on Saturday. The over/under is currently set at 47.5 points, suggesting that oddsmakers expect the Buckeyes to get
back on track with a relatively comfortable victory following Saturday’s demoralizing 41-28 loss to Oregon.
Now, I certainly understand that Northwestern is also coming off a pair of losses, and is not exactly a college football powerhouse. But, after watching Ohio State stumble its way haphazardly through the past two weeks, I am genuinely struggling to understand how anyone could confidently predict that this version of the Buckeyes is 11 points better than just about anybody, let alone a Northwestern team that has been considerably better than many expected this season.
The Buckeyes enter the week at 6-3 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten play, with their College Football Playoff hopes essentially gone. Sure, if every team with a number by its name somehow loses out, maybe they sneak in through the backdoor, but I’d give that a 0.005% chance of happening at this point, and that might be generous.
After falling 30-18 to USC on Halloween, Ohio State had an opportunity to right the ship against Oregon on Saturday, as everything still remained within their own control. Instead, the Buckeyes squandered an early 14-0 lead, surrendered 38 unanswered points, and suffered another frustrating defeat in a game that once again raised serious questions about the team’s preparation, execution, and coaching.
Meanwhile, Northwestern sits at 6-3 overall and 3-3 in conference play under head coach David Braun. The Wildcats had won four straight games before dropping consecutive contests to Oregon and Iowa, but their season has included a convincing 34-13 victory over Penn State, a 42-14 win against Rutgers, and a competitive 29-23 loss on the road against Indiana. While Saturday’s 24-10 loss to the Hawkeyes was certainly a setback, this is not a Northwestern team that Ohio State should expect to simply roll over because the Buckeyes supposedly have superior talent; at this point, I’m not even sure how much that presumed talent advantage is worth.
And, of course, there is another rather frustrating and concerning wrinkle to Saturday’s matchup: Chip Kelly is coming back to Columbus.
The offensive coordinator who helped guide Ohio State to the 2024 national championship is now running Northwestern’s offense, having joined Braun’s staff following a brief stint with the Las Vegas Raiders. Kelly’s return will undoubtedly add an extra layer of intrigue to a game that already carries considerable significance for both programs. Not only does the former Buckeye assistant have an intimate familiarity with Ryan Day and Ohio State’s offensive philosophy, but he also has an opportunity to exploit the weaknesses of a Buckeye defense that just surrendered 41 points to Oregon.
Historically, Ohio State has dominated this matchup, owning a 66-14-1 all-time record against Northwestern and winning the past 11 meetings between the programs. The Buckeyes have won 35 of the teams’ previous 36 matchups dating back to 1971, including a 31-7 victory at Wrigley Field in 2024. Northwestern’s last win in the series came in 2004, when the Wildcats stunned the Buckeyes 33-27 in overtime in Evanston.
Obviously, history is firmly on the Buckeyes’ side, as is the supposed talent disparity between the two rosters. And with Northwestern having lost two straight games of its own, there are legitimate reasons to believe that Ohio State can — and perhaps should — win this game, but winning and covering a double-digit point spread are two very different things.
At this point, I’m certainly not going to predict that Ohio State is going to lose to Northwestern, but I’m also not going to predict that they’ll win either. I just don’t know what this team has done over the past month to inspire the sort of confidence that a 10.5-point spread would seem to suggest, even against Northwestern. The Buckeyes have repeatedly struggled with penalties, countless questionable coaching decisions, inconsistent execution, and an inability to capitalize on opportunities when games are there for the taking. Those aren’t exactly the hallmarks of a team I would feel comfortable expecting to win by multiple scores.
I certainly hope they find a way to get it done, but until this team shows me any legitimate sign of life, I don’t know how anyone could feel comfortable laying points at all, let alone 10.5 against a team with a winning record.
Let us know what you think in the comments below, and be sure to check the latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook before Saturday’s matchup.
