When we last checked in with the NL MVP race on September 6, it was too close to tell, with a four-way battle between Pete Crow-Armstrong, Shohei Ohtani, Geraldo Perdomo and Trea Turner and only 0.2 WAR separating them (in bWAR/fWAR average). Two weeks have passed since that point: how do things now stand? As before, I’ve taken the players who appear in the top ten either by bWAR or fWAR, and averaged out their production between the two metrics. That gives us 12 players as before, though we have lost
Ketel Marte, whose recent slump has dropped him out of the top ten by fWAR (he currently ranks 13th there). He has been replaced by Kyle Schwarber, who is tenth by fWAR.
With eight games left to play, it now appears to be a two-horse race with Turner having dropped back into the pack, and Crow-Armstrong somehow being half a win less valuable than he was two weeks ago. However, I’ve currently little doubt that it’ll go to Ohtani, and not undeservedly so. He’s on a team who will be going to the playoffs (an increasingly unlikely outcome for the D-backs), and has additional value as a pitcher. Plus he’s blatantly the media darling – to the point where it feels like there’s almost resentment against Schwarber for having had the temerity to overtake Shohei in home-runs.
But right now, it does feel like Perdomo deserves to make the final three, along with Ohtani and, I’d say, probably Trea Turner over Soto (it feels like voters put more stock in fWAR than bWAR generally). That last spot still might change over the final week. A surge from Corbin Carroll would be nice: I’m wondering when the last time was that the same team had two of the top three… Well, never mind: Aaron Judge and Soto fulfilled that for the Yankees last year. Going further back, the 1966 Orioles swept the podium, with Frank Robinson winning, while team-mates Brooks Robinson and Boog Powell finished second and third, respectively.
