How does it go? It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. From a run prevention standpoint, it works. I’m guessing that even during the good part, you were largely unsatisfied with the offensive performance. That’s totally fair. Not bothering to parse the offensive stats, they had four singles, drew two walks and stole a base (but also had a caught stealing.) It was a pedestrian, ineffective offensive performance.
But boy, was it fun to watch Cade Horton again, or what? For five innings,
he dominated the Braves. We’re witnessing the generic version of Jake Arrieta. The dominance is there, but there is a long way to go on the longevity to it. And, we have to wonder, at least a little bit, that the performance is being helped by controlled usage. Cade doesn’t generally face batters three times. He doesn’t have to set up pitches for that third time or have to keep things in the tank for the sixth, seventh or eighth innings.
Also, that’s the modern game in a nutshell. Go hard, be effective and get out of there. Though he is used more carefully than any Cub pitcher, it’s not like he’s a unicorn across baseball. Pitchers seeing the seventh inning are the unicorns. So many pitchers don’t even consistently finish six innings.
Regardless, it is the right strategy right now. These Cubs are a playoff team. These Cubs are probably going to be the top Wild Card. While these last weeks are about trying to get hot and get guys playing well, the eye is on getting them healthy to October. I didn’t expect him to throw the sixth and so I wasn’t even disappointed. I could sense the doom coming. But it was the right decision.
The strange reality is that the Brewers are maybe a special team. They’ve definitely been special the last few months. But we all know that the stamp of a team is getting the trophy at the end. Ironically, I just talked yesterday about a trophy not being the only mark of a successful season. What I mean here, today is that history only remembers this Brewers team as a “special” team if they get it done. They could set a new record for wins in a Brewer season. They won’t soon be forgotten. But there’s just a difference between statistically significant team and special team. The special ones do hoist the trophy.
Aside from the Brewers, the rest of the teams are in a clump. Someone will get hot and make a run. Maybe it is the Dodgers and all of the talent money can be. Maybe it’s Philly team that can get blisteringly hot. Not to steal the story from Scoreboard Watching further down, but check it out. Phillies: lose, Dodgers: lose, Padres: lose, Mets: lose, Reds: lose. Ignoring the Brewers who will almost certainly hang on to win the Central (or win it going away), everyone else lost. The Reds are now just .500 and have fallen behind the Giants. It’s September 4, and we know who the NL playoff teams will be and we’ve been pretty sure who they would be for months.
So yeah, get Horton healthy. Make sure Kyle Tucker’s calf is ok. October. That’s the focus. Figure out how to arrange the deck chairs for the pitching staff. They’ve simultaneously carried this team after the All-Star break and make you nervous. Do you hand a rookie the ball for game one of the playoffs? He’s definitely your most effective pitcher. Do you use him for four or five innings in the playoffs and have a second guy follow him to throw two or three?
This is all like an unusual spring training in a season that already had an early spring training, a trip to Japan, a return to spring training for awkward games and then the regular season. Now, this becomes a September of largely just marking time. Win winnable games. Get the top wild-card seed. Get people right in the head and right on the field and out of the infirmary.
Pitch Counts:
- Braves: 138, 32 BF
- Cubs: 156, 36 BF
Just two little pitches per inning. Not that much difference, right? The Cubs threw 17.33 pitches per inning, the Braves 15.33. Well, it was 15 even when Horton left. But Ben Brown and Drew Pomeranz threw 50 pitches over two innings. Right there, the game got away. Factually, but for Rasiel Iglesias’ adventure in the ninth, the Braves numbers would be even better. Through eight innings, the Cubs had just four hits and had drawn no walks. Iglesias walked two and then got to a full count before throwing a called third strike against Carlos Santana to end the game. The call looked fine.
With an off day Thursday, the Cubs bullpen gets to fully reset. Brown was the only one with a really high pitch count, but we see guys bounce back after two days on 33 pitches. The Cubs haven’t used Brown that way anyway. But they’ll be able to use him again the next time they are inclined to do so.
Three Stars:
- Cade Horton. Good luck finding a second choice. I’m not one to lobby for unanimous. But, this is a reasonable time to do so.
- Ian Happ reached base twice with a single and a walk. He scored the run. (wRC+ up to 112)
- Willi Castro drove in the one run with a single and stole a base.
Hey, the Cubs aren’t very good without a healthy Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Re-sign Tucker and keep the two of them together for years. That’s your 1 and 1A. They get there differently. Build around them.
Game 140, September 3: Braves 5, Cubs 1 (80-60)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Cade Horton (.283). 5 IP, 16 BF, BB, 6 K
- Hero: Willi Castro (.073). 1-3, RBI, SB
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.060). 1-3, BB, R
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Drew Pomeranz (-.508). 0.2 IP, 5 BF, 3 H, 2 ER, K (9th worst WPA game score of the season by a Cub player. Pomeranz’ worst outing by WPA.)
- Goat: Carlos Santana (-.092). 0-4
- Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.073). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Ha-Seong Kim’s three-run homer with two outs in the seventh was the game. If Pomeranz gets that out, maybe the Cubs finish the shutout and sweep. (.498)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s single and subsequent two-base error and Willi Castro’s two-out, RBI-single a couple of batters later tied. (.099)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Kyle Tucker received 176 of 198 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Shōta Imanaga +22
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +14.67
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Carson Kelly -18
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -27.33
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) lose (Cubs up 4). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 5). Giants win and pass the Reds who lost again (Cubs up 9; Giants need to go 19-3 to reach 90 wins.). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 14 with 22 to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers won again (Cubs down six). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: While the Cubs are off, the Brewers have a game with the Phillies. The rest of the teams we are following take the day off with the Cubs. This weekend, Cubs host Nationals, Reds host Mets, Giants are in St. Louis, and the Padres in Denver. Of the teams we are following for the Wild Card spots, the Mets have the hardest weekend. We’ll probably expect the WC contenders largely to win two of three this weekend. So who will lose more than one?
The Nationals come in at 56-83. The Cubs took two of three from them earlier in Washington. The only NL team to sweep the season series from the Nats was the Giants at 6-0. Largely due to the Brewers, the biggest issues for the Nats have been the NL Central (7-18) and the AL (18-27). They are actually 15-16 vs. the NL West. They were 9-19 in August, but have started September with a sweep of the Marlins.
Javier Assad (1-1, 4.05, 20 IP) makes his fifth start for the Cubs. Last time out he allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks in six innings. He picked up the win despite only striking out one. He allowed seven runs in 12 innings last year against the Nationals. He did pick up a win with a minimum qualification quality start last year in Washington.
28-year-old righty Jake Irvin (8-10, 5.42, 154.1 IP) makes his 29th start. Irvin was a fourth round pick for the Nationals back in 2018 (131 overall). He’s been struggling. He’s 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA over his last seven starts (34.2 IP). That last win was July 27. August was rough (0-5, 8.78, 1.95 WHIP). The Cubs beat him in June, though they only managed three runs in five innings. He allowed eight hits and two walks. The team was beating up on a lot of people back then and that isn’t too awful. A bit better at home (5.15 vs. 5.67) but much worse at night (6.17 vs. 4.41).
Bounce back. Start the weekend off right. It’ll be a charged weekend with Cub Hall of Fame inductees being honored and some extra former players around the park. Make it a weekend-long celebration.
