As the calendar prepares to roll over to July, it is officially time to start diving into trade rumors and focusing some energy on how to fortify the roster. Before the season began, and after the “hot” stove this past winter, the Yankees front office repeatedly pushed the narrative that they approached last year’s trade deadline looking not only to add the missing pieces for the 2025 club that fell short of a championship, but also to build the foundation for this year’s roster.
Soon we will find
out what Brian Cashman makes of this edition of the team after another half season of data. Predicting trades is always just a best guess because so many factors go into the equation, none more important than the fact that we have no idea how other executives truly value the Yankees’ prospects. Making a deal involves finding a dance partner who not only fits your needs, but also likes what you have to bring to the table. So without getting to far into the weeds, what will the Yankees’ priorities be at this upcoming trade deadline?
Before taking a deep dive into splits, performances to date, and how those data points compare to league averages, a few things stand out to the naked eye. The first is the Yankees’ depth at starting pitcher.
Max Fried is still on the injured list, but he is making his way back and, knocking on wood, the rest of the rotation has either remained healthy or worked its way back as well. Starting pitching simply does not appear to be a priority. That is not to say the Yankees would not add a starter if the price were right, but it feels much more like a cherry-on-top scenario than an organizational need.
The other thing that stands out is the injured list. Cashman has long believed that getting an injured player back can be just as valuable as making a trade. Using that logic, the Yankees, in addition to a starter in Fried, will eventually be adding a right fielder, a center fielder, and a designated hitter over the course of the summer.
Between that and the inexpensive production they have received from Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones as the next men up, the Yankees are probably out of the outfield market unless someone unexpectedly falls into their lap or another injury, or bad recovery news, changes the equation.
It should also be assumed that most positions addressed either at last year’s deadline or this past offseason are viewed as lower priorities. Whether fans agree or not, that likely includes third base with Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario, and left field with Cody Bellinger. I also have to think the idea of José Caballero spending more time at third base, once some of the banged-up outfielders return, has crossed the minds of the executives making these calls.
So what are the priorities? Diving into the numbers, outside of health, the Yankees currently have two Achilles’ heels: catcher and the bullpen, particularly its effectiveness against left-handed hitters.
Entering Sunday, Yankees catchers owned a .510 OPS. The major league average for catchers sits at .674. I like to think of OPS as the closest thing baseball has to a report card for hitters. Essentially, Yankees catchers are getting about a 51 on the test, while the rest of the league is averaging a D+. Neither of these are great, but if the Yankees could simply get the league average from this spot it would only further aid one of the better offenses in baseball.
Catcher, however, is one of the most difficult positions to address at the trade deadline. Half of the job is handling the pitching staff, so acquiring a catcher assumes he can quickly build chemistry with a new group of pitchers while continuing to produce offensively. It is not easy.
Unless you have been living under a rock, you know the Yankees have been heavily linked to Ryan Jeffers all season long. In this case, many of the concerns about acquiring a catcher are somewhat eased because Jeffers developed under current Yankees catching coach Tanner Swanson. In theory, that familiarity should help smooth the transition, but like an ogre there are extra layers to adding a catcher.
That brings us to the bullpen. As beloved as Tim Hill is, and despite Brent Headrick putting together a career year, the Yankees sit squarely in the middle of the pack when it comes to retiring left-handed hitters once the game reaches the bullpen.
The writing on the wall is that when Fried returns, either Ryan Weathers or Will Warren could move into a relief role. However, neither has been particularly dominant against left-handed hitters this season, allowing OPS figures of .741 and .731, respectively.
Unfortunately, the Yankees also rank among the league leaders in blown saves. Does more need to be said? Then again, when was the last time a legitimate contender did not spend the summer looking for bullpen help? The bullpen is far from bad, but it is clearly an area where an upgrade is both needed and realistically attainable at different cost points each season.
This deadline should be a fascinating one. Will the Yankees push all of their chips into the middle of the table? What would that even look like given the current state of the farm system? My expectation is that Cashman will prioritize a move that addresses the catcher and the bullpen at once or toss several stones at bullpen arms hoping a wide net yields the desired catch. Only time will tell what deals are made and, more importantly, whether those moves ultimately bring the Yankees to the goal of a championship. What do you have as the priority?
