It ends the way it began. Well, not exactly. The Cubs did manage six hits and drew three walks on Sunday. So that’s better than Thursday went. But the net result was the same. A strong pitching performance
and a loss. Jameson Taillon allowed one run over seven. That’s a throwback performance and should end in a win. It’s crazy to me that just before this series I’d made a comment about losing 1-0 and that the Cubs hadn’t been on the wrong side of any. And now they’ve lost two of them in four days.
Not only that, I was one of many people who had been pointing out that the Cubs hadn’t lost four straight all year. Now they’ve lost four straight to the same team. A four-game sweep. We are so far outside of the expectations for this team. It’s hard not to watch this series and draw the conclusion that, home or away, this team is heading to a two and out series. Something has to change or this team isn’t going to make any mark whatsoever on the postseason. What a shame that feels like for a team that was so good for so much of the year.
All is not lost. Not yet. This team has 88 wins with six to play. They need four wins in six games for 92 wins and home field advantage in the Wild Card series. There are other scenarios, but that is the guaranteed scenario. They open a series Tuesday night after a night off against the Mets. The Mets have been in free fall for a very long time. The Mets are terrible on the road. So Tuesday night will find two teams heading in the wrong direction.
Before we can get there though, we have to dissect this lose. It is what it is. It’s funny, if this team had been 13-18 at the end of April (rather than 18-13), and were 75-50 to close out the season, there would be a lot of enthusiasm about this team. A team that had a rough start against a tough schedule, but finished with a rush behind the rookie seasons of Cade Horton and Matt Shaw. That could have been the story.
That’s the thing. It’s the thing across sports, but particularly in baseball. The season is so long. You will usually get to see a team through a hot streak where they look like champions. Through cold streaks where they look non-competitive. Everything between the two polar extremes. There is so much variability. So what is real? All of it. This team can play like a champion. And they could get bounced in two simple games.
I have no disagreement with the odds sitting right now on Baseball Reference. They have the Cubs just shy of a coin flip to reach the NLDS. That is, winning the opening series. That feels about right. They have about 1 in 6 chance of reaching the NLCS. Again, just about right. If this team were to get hot… I can see it. About 1 in 14 to reach the World Series. Not out of this world. And about 33 to 1 to win a World Series. Sure. A puncher’s chance.
It’s easy to say now that you think they’ll run into good pitching and bounce out. As I’ve said for a long time, I don’t particularly want to see left-handed starters. I don’t feel like doing the deep dive, but I feel like the 19-22 record against lefty starters includes multiple wins against lefty openers. Might it include losses against lefty openers? Yeah, I’ll concede that too. Sum total, this team has done some damage against lefty pitchers, more early in the year than late, but even when things were good they weren’t great against lefty starters. But hey, that first round match is close to being guaranteed to be against the Padres and that is not one of their strengths.
All is not lost, not even after the worst weekend of the season.
This team HAS to get a healthy Kyle Tucker back on the field, though. This team is MUCH further from excellence without Tucker. I understand the challenge ahead with him in the offseason. But they need to know they are going to need multiple kids to develop positively if Tucker isn’t here and still find value in free agency.
But that’s all a conversation for a day over a month from now.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 93, 29 BF (8 IP)
- Reds: 160, 36 BF
Ouch. The Cubs are well into the green zone. 11.625 pitches per inning. That’s going to work. You’re going to win more often than not down there. Unsurprising that this saw a starter go seven innings. If this is a game with a big lead and a healthy pitcher, you might let him go eight or even try to finish it. Complete games are rare, but Jameson Taillon threw a dominant game. On the other side, the Reds were flashing yellow. Not great. 17.77 pitches per inning. Only three walks and only six strikeouts by Reds pitchers. This is a lot of pitches for a shutout. I’m going to normally expect to see three or four runs with that kind of output.
This is a weird one. No runners lost on the bases. No double plays. Just the Cubs leaving nine on base and 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Painful. The Cub pitchers faced just five batters over the minimum. The Reds face a full nine over the minimum. The Cubs only allowed five hits and no walks. There were two extra base hits, both were for the Reds and both came in the third inning. So sequencing works against the Cubs. This is just a bad result. Hat tip, I guess, for Reds pitchers working out of trouble. But basically, just a case of the Cubs failing over and over again when the game was on the line.
Brad Keller was the only reliever who threw. Just 11 pitches for his one inning of work. The Cubs are off Monday. They’ll have a full house for the final homestand of the season. Aaron Civale (who threw Saturday) and isn’t an experienced reliever is the one guy with any concerns, and I guarantee you he’ll be ready to go Tuesday night if Craig Counsell wants to call his number.
Three Stars:
- Jameson Taillon throws seven innings allowing five hits and no walks. Terrific outing.
- Brad Keller, a perfect eighth inning of work. One strikeout.
- Michael Busch with a single and a walk.
Game 156, September 21: Reds 1, Cubs 0 (88-68)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Jameson Taillon (.246). 7 IP, 26 BF, 5 H, 0 BB, ER, 4 K (L 10-7)
- Hero: Moisés Ballesteros (.088). 0-1, BB
- Sidekick: Brad Keller (.035). IP, 3 BF, K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.168). 0-2
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.161). 0-4 (.299)
- Kid: Justin Turner (-.129). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Tony Santillan faced Pete Crow-Armstrong with runners on first and second with two outs in the ninth. He struck out PCA to end the game. (.146)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Moisés Ballesteros drew a walk to start the ninth inning. (.115)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Reese McGuire (59 of 64 votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Jameson Taillon +22
- Cade Horton +18
- Shōta Imanaga/Matthew Boyd +17
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -20.33
- Carson Kelly -23
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason. We will no longer monitor any of the teams who can no longer catch the Cubs. The only other team that matters in any way at this point is the Padres. Padres (WC 2) win (Cubs up 3). The Cubs magic number relative to the Padres is 4. The Cubs can still clinch by winning four of their last six and any losses by the Padres nudge that forward too.
Interestingly, by losing all weekend, the Mets and Reds are now tied. The Mets, after having led basically wire to wire, are now in a six-game shootout for the last spot. The Diamondbacks sit one game behind that. So they aren’t out of it either. A wild finish for the last spot. And now, the Mets will be as desperate as the Reds were this week. Wild.
Up Next: The Mets are 80-76 and have lost six of 10. 7-12 in September. 11-17 in August. 12-15 in June. 40-53 since June 1. They took two of three from the Cubs a long time ago. As I remember, Jose Lindor was just coming off of the IL and had a pretty good series. A side note, the Padres series with the Brewers is in San Diego and starts Monday night. Hopefully, these next three days aren’t the time for the Brewers to stumble after being red hot for months.
Cade Horton makes what I anticipate will be his final start of the regular season. Cade is 11-4 with a 2.66 ERA over 115 innings. He’s 5-1 with a 1.51 ERA over his last seven starts. He’s been terrific. His one career relief appearance was against the Mets in his major league debut. He won. He allowed three runs over four innings. But was credited with the one win in the series. Cade is going to be a finalist for NL Rookie of the Year and realistically could receive some Cy Young votes. One more big start Tuesday night. Then, he would be lined up for a do or die Sunday. But also for a Game 1 start. I’ll roll my eyes while some assume any of those words are an accident and that Craig Counsell hasn’t been using six healthy starters to manipulate where the pitchers land. The team’s best pitcher is available for the next humongous game this team plays.
Hey, how about a left-handed starter with a first round pedigree for the first game of the series? David Peterson was the 20th overall pick in the 2017 draft by the Mets. He is 9-6 with a 3.98 ERA in 167.1 innings and will be making his 30th start of the year. The 30-year-old from Denver, Colorado is at a career high for starts and innings pitched. Over his last seven starts, he is just 2-1 with a 7.86 ERA (34.1 IP). Last time out, the Padres tagged him for six runs in just five innings of work. He didn’t face the Cubs in the earlier series. He last faced the Cubs in August of 2023 when he allowed two runs over 3.2 IP.
Nothing is going to be easy about any of this. Win behind your best pitcher.
