No, seriously.
I get it. Penn State is only 4-6 with a 1-6 conference record – but just snapped a 6-game losing streak which included three losses against teams currently in the top 10 and just-nudged-out
Iowa. They just narrowly missed a huge upset against Indiana and handled a Michigan State team from which Nebraska pulled away late.
And then there’s the intangibles – such as Nebraska playing on the road in always-tough Happy Valley – and in a night game (more on that below). Penn State has to win out in their last two games to get bowl eligible – but is that motivation enough for their fans to work themselves into a lather at the end of a season which began with national title dreams?
My answer is yes, especially when they will have all day to work themselves into said lather by drinking from cans, bottles and the famous red cups, some of which will surely contain white lightning cooked in the local mountains. Those effects are not imaginary – bookies getting ready to release a -7 1/2 line in favor of Penn State boosted it to -10 1/2 once the switch to an evening kickoff was announced last Saturday night. And bookies don’t set lines from places of emotion.
The line has since dipped down to around -8 1/2 possibly propelled by bettors doing a double take after seeing the teams’ current records. But regardless of the spread, this one feels like a good ol’ Big 10 ground battle given the choice of the teams saddling three top running backs vs. a pair of freshman QB’s.
So, here’s a few thoughts about what’s gone on and what’s coming tomorrow.
- This is only the second true night game against Penn State in the modern era. You may remember the first, a 40-7 shellacking in which they ran the ball successfully, but Jamaal Lord suffered a 76-yard 3-INT performance in which their doors were blown off 27-0 in the second half in front of a frenzied crowd. After a 3-0 start, that spurred a 4-7 finish and the beginning of the end of the Solich regime.
- Since that time, the Huskers have gone 5-1 against Penn State.
- The 6pm kickoff time was only set last Saturday night after what is called a “6-day hold” where game results determine the TV slots. Given Nebraska and Penn State’s records, this game didn’t really seem like even close to one where the results would make a difference, especially given Nebraska wasn’t even playing. But – Penn State winning out WOULD make them bowl eligible meaning more money for the conference. Nebraska was a non-factor already being locked in. Not saying this is the usual Big 10 dirty pool at all – giving Penn Sate a boost with a night game was only logical from a cash standpoint.
- And as Matt Rhule said when asked about it? “I love it.”
- In what looked to be a relatively drama-free week, Dayton Raiola re-opened his recruitment after a visit from Rhule, which seemed a indicate a mutual decision. Obviously, the decommitment of a 3-star recruit from a loaded QB room would’ve been a non-issue except for the last name. And the howlers were there with all of the Raiola family conspiracy theories.
- Yes, Donovan Raiola is being fired, Dylan Raiola is 100% transferring (after already 100% transferring last season) and Matt Rhule – in the phrase being bandied about these days – is “cutting ties” with the family. (Does that mean they have to weld Dominic’s name off the stadium?) In truth, Donovan’s injury-riddled line has only allowed 2 sacks in the last three games and the lead running back is in Heisman, All-American, Maxwell and Doak conversations, so the run-blocking is sort of OK. Before his injury, Dylan had thrown for 2,000 yards in a little over 8 1/2 games at a 72.4% completion clip with an 18/6 TD/INT ratio, which isn’t bad for a “failed experiment”.
- We may never know the real reason for Dayton’s decision, but it’s not like brothers are locked at the hip in their choices. And it took Dylan a couple of decommits to realize where his he wanted to be. I mean, Donovan Jones younger brother Darion committed to Iowa of all places and the earth didn’t implode upon itself.
- Dayton’s name never came up in Rhule’s Thursday presser, only Penn State.
- Speaking of which, how does the Huskers offense stand up in general to Penn State’s defense. For the season, the Huskers average 163.6 on the ground and 248.2 through the air. But as Dana Holgorsen said prior to UCLA, “We’re a run-first offense now.” And with Penn State’s pass rush, that probably isn’t changing. Might Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee get a couple drives to try and get a few more carries over Emmett Johnson’s heavy workload with T.J. Lateef hitting the slashes and screens with the occasional keeper to keep PSU honest.
- On the Penn State side, they are a team whose offense has swerved more run-heavy as well following Drew Allar’s season-ending injury. And with Nebraska allowing 161 per on the ground and only 135 through the air, the Lions will almost surely lean as hard as they can on their two running backs as last week with Penn State running it 50 times against Michigan State.
- Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton have combined for 1363 yards through 10 games in 2025. And keep in mind both running backs topped the 1000-yard mark in 2024. Stopping, or at least containing, these two is likely the key to victory tomorrow.
- And don’t forget special teams, lest you find Mike Ekeler battering your door in to beat you about the front yard like Nebraska assistant coaches following a Kenneth Williams kickoff return. Nothing would quiet a wound-up Beaver Stadium night crowd more than Williams or Jacory Barney housing a kickoff/punt return.
- Just sayin’.
- Go Big Red
