I feel like it’s been a long time since I’ve written up a props article. Probably because it’s been a week and a half since the Bears faced the Patriots. We had a good week last week; 2 out of 3 ain’t bad, and that raised our season record to 10-11.
This week, the Bears have a massive game against the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams are looking to show they are one of the elite teams in the NFC and ready to push for the Super Bowl. The Bears made a huge impact move by trading for Jeffery Simmons this
past week, and he is expected to play. Let’s look at the prop plays for this week. As always, odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 99.5 Receiving Yards -113
You hate to lead off the prop plays with a Seattle over, but how do you not expect JSN to gain significant yardage? He’s gained over 100 yards in every game but one this year, and you can’t look at the Bears’ current crop of cornerbacks and think it’s a good matchup for Chicago. The only hope is that with Simmons in the mix, Dennis Allen blitzes less and Kyler Gordon has some success against him. Other than that, you have to expect at least 2 or 3 pretty sizable gains from JSN and another day over 100 yards receiving.
Luther Burden OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards -113
In the two games since Caleb Williams’ return, Burden has caught all 12 targets he’s gotten from Caleb for a total of 225 yards and a touchdown. Burden has easily taken over WR1 status in Chicago with Caleb back in the fold, and he should see some shallow crossers tonight with an opportunity to gain some yards after the catch similarly to what happened against New England.
Kalif Raymond OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards -113
This last one was between Raymond and Sam Roush. With Cole Kmet out for the year, there’s a hole, albeit a small one, in the Bears offense, and you have to try to figure out who is going to fill the role of a reliable dump-off guy. Roush makes sense, and his OU is only 8.5, but his role has been greatly reduced the last few weeks, and I just don’t know if Ben Johnson will suddenly trust him again due to an injury. Raymond’s role has also been reduced, but I think he’s the guy who sees an uptick in targets. 16.5 yards isn’t much. Raymond should be able to do that in just 1 or 2 catches, but he’s only gone over this total once in the last four weeks, and it was 18 yards. This is more a play that Raymond is on the field more and will see a couple more targets due to the Kmet injury.
BONUS: Jeffery Simmons 0.5 sacks or more +154
For the purposes of these articles, I only give straight 50-50 props and stopped dabbling in the plus-money waters a couple of years ago. But wanted to at least drop this one in as a bonus. I think Simmons plays at least 50% of the snaps tonight, and I just think big players like this always have that extra little bit of motivation to show up that first game in a new location. I go back to Khalil Mack’s first half against Green Bay in his debut. I think Simmons makes a couple of impact plays, so corralling San Darnold for a sack feels like a good wager to make.
