Welcome to the most important football game of the Missouri 2026 football season (so far).
Missouri is ranked in all three polls and has only suffered two losses against the state of Mississippi. Win out and the Tigers are in the Playoff. Lose any of the next four and it’s extremely unlikely they are considered for the 12-team format.
Should Mizzou triumph this week it would be the best data point on their resume…with the understanding that beating them would also lessen the prestige of the win. So
it goes. But with Oklahoma free falling (and firing their offensive coordinator) and Kentucky remaining “Kentucky” in the eyes of Playoff decision makers, the next two weeks offer prime pelts for Missouri to point to when it comes to the kabuki dance known as “the Playoff Selection committee decision making matrix”.
Win this week and we can discuss the urgency of beating Georgia for only the second time this millennium. But that’s not today’s exercise.
This week’s opponent: Steve Sarkisian, Arch Manning, and the Texas Longhorns. Preseason darling for the Heisman, SEC, and National Title contenders, the Longhorns were dealt two bloody noses in back-to-back weeks, sparking discourse around Sarkisian, Manning, and their validity of all the praise heaped on them this offseason.
I have some bad news though: for all the talk of their downfall, Texas is still really freaking good.
They won a coin-flip game in their comeback against Ohio State but have only played below a 93% postgame win expectancy twice: 54% against the Buckeyes, 83% in their loss against Florida.
Yes, you read that correctly: the way Texas played against Florida they would win 83% of the time. It just so happens that game was one of the 17%.
It gets better though! Their postgame win expectancy against Oklahoma was 93%!
Is Arch Manning the third god-tier Manning quarterback on Planet Earth? Not right now, no. Does the Texas offense have some obvious holes? Sure do! Is the Longhorn defense one of the nastiest units playing at the moment. Oh absolutely yes.
The Longhorns are super banged up but don’t take this team lightly. Missouri will need to be locked in and deliver an A-level effort to take these guys down.
Here’s how I see it.
When Missouri Has the Ball
Will Muschamp might not be able to coach a full football team to any sort of consistent success, but he can coach the shit out of a defense. His 2026 Longhorn defense is one of the best in the country and, folks, it’s going to make Missouri look consistently stupid.
There are essentially no weaknesses! 4th in overall success rate, 23rd against explosive plays, 8th against the run, 2nd against the pass, 11th on Standard Downs, 5th on Passing Downs, 12th-high havoc rate in the country. What can you do against that?
The answer: what you do best. And hope that something, somewhere, clicks enough to put up some points. So, with that said, let’s run through Missouri’s 2026 blueprint to success
Generate Explosives
Jamal Roberts is the best source of explosives but Texas is also the best against the run. The passing game can be explosive but Caleb Goodie goes weeks without catching the ball and Cayden Lee will most likely be double teamed all day. Missouri will need at least 6explosive plays generated, I’m not sure how they will get them but that’s the requirement.
Convert Third Downs
Given the caliber of opponent I’d say even a 40% success rate on 3rd-down will be a win here. Missouri doesn’t need to play keep away but they do need to sustain drives long enough to minimize the number of possessions each team has and diminish Texas’ talent advantage.
Finish Your Dang Drives
Texas is allowing 2.9 points per scoring opportunity. That’s insane. And, appropriately, ranks 2nd in the nation. LESS THAN A FIELD GOAL EVERY TIME YOU CROSS THE 40. Boy this game is going to suck to watch. Let’s hope Mizzou can average at least 4 points per scoring opportunity. Please?
When Texas Has the Ball
I’m not a quarterback or a coach but, based on the surprising amount of Texas football I’ve watched this year, I think the issue with Arch Manning and Steve Sarkisian is that Arch is a vibes-based quarterback and Steve is a proccess-based coordinator (yes, Steve still calls plays and no, he’s not going to stop. Ruh roh!)
People much smarter than me have pointed out that Manning doesn’t make any checks at the line, alter protections, or really do any of that “field general” stuff that NFL-type quarterbacks (and certainly his uncles) do. Others have surmised that he doesn’t make the full reads of the play, and tends to check the first two before winging it. So when Sarkisian forces Manning to play within the system, Arch tends to not trust what he sees and plays like he has a restrictor plate on. But when he’s freed to let it rip and improvise – like he was in the 4th quarter against Ohio State – his talents really shine.
I’m not sure how much any of that is actually true but I’m sure Corey Batoon has figured it out by now. So if you start seeing more elaborate defensive schemes, stunts, and combo coverage, you know that Batoon thinks his guys can confuse Manning into some shenanigans. Let’s hope that’s the case!
Limit Explosives
Like any good blue blood program Texas is chock full of elite talent at the skill positions. Which makes the fact that they rank 71st in rushing, 66th in passing, and 72nd in overall success a true puzzler. They’re strength is finishing drives with points and making safe passes but everything else is extremely underwhelming. Manning relies on his 5-star receivers to make the easy catch and then create big plays afterwards and it will be on the back seven of Missouri’s defense to limit that damage. Let’s set the expectations of 7 explosive plays or fewer.
Win On 3rd Down
Texas ranks 91st in standard downs offense, meaning the majority of the 3rd-down attempts are in obvious passing down situations. Stop that, stop Manning, stop the offense, win the game. The Longhorns are currently averaging a 39.6% success rate on 3rd-down. Sounds good to me.
Conclusion
This is why Missouri joined the SEC: to play the best. Texas wasn’t part of the conversation when Mizzou made the move but they are part of it now and worthy of taking down.
If…IF…there is a 3-win team to make it into the Playoff it will probably hail from the SEC. I’m not sure if our Tigers have the name brand to cut through the Committee’s selection BS but, you know what, who cares?
Eli Drinkwitz has never played Texas. It would be rad as hell if he could take down the Horns at home in his first try and keep this outside chance at a Playoff run alive for another week.
If you think this game isn’t winnable it’s because you’ve seen that, even in their losses, Texas played well enough to win. They have the talent, they have the history, they have the logo, and teams like Missouri don’t beat teams like Texas. Especially when you’re Eli Drinkwitz.
If you think this game IS winnable it’s because you know that Texas is beat up and (potentially) missing a lot of contributors. And that Arch Manning isn’t a reliable passer. And Texas is not nearly as deep as they used to be. And that the trip to Columbia is only the SECOND true road game the Longhorns have gone on this season.
Practice your “horns down” this week and get ready for a gross, defensive-forward game.
