Happy Friday everyone. I hope you’ve had a good week and, if you haven’t, at least it’s almost over. Friday is also that time we post the replies to all the wonderful questions that come in from you, the loyal readers. This week we didn’t get anything about tomorrow’s UFC Shanghai. We didn’t get much about UFC Sacramento, either. But we did get plenty of other interesting and thought-provoking questions.
We were also asked, by Jim Allhill; What gives you the right and who do you think you are?
I can
answer those. My boss Tommy gives me the right. And I think I’m a pretty cool guy; that’s what my mum says anyways.
Scroll down to see what else we answered this week.
The Ones That Got Away
Question: With Couture/Fedor as an example of fights that never came to fruition, what is the MMA fight that should have happened that never did that disappointed you the most. (Adam Wagner)
Andrew Richardson: Tony vs. Khabib, Tony vs. Khabib, Tony vs. Khabib. The new fans who act like Tony was never good after his falloff irritate me to no end. There’s a reason we wanted that fight so badly in 2016!
Jesse Holland: Brock vs. Fedor. We got really close a couple of times and it was almost signed for Cowboys Stadium in 2012 – only to fall apart at the eleventh hour. It was such a bizarre matchup but could have significantly changed the face of UFC in such a unique way.
Anton Tabuena: The other examples they gave are good, but it’s easy to understand why it didn’t happen – freak injuries, different promotions, and far more complicated negotiations. UFC has zero excuse on Francis Ngannou vs. Jon Jones though (or even Tom Aspinall vs. Jon Jones), outside of just not wanting to pay them enough.
Alex Behunin: Brock vs. Fedor is definitely my number one, but others I wanted to see were Silva vs. GSP, Jones vs. Rumble, DJ vs. TJ, Shogun vs. Wandy.
Tim Edwards: Couture vs. Fedor is the ultimate what if. But I think Jones vs. Ngannou is a pretty close second. That one stings because it’s a rare situation of both men being in the same promotion and both seemingly being down to do it for the right price. It would have also answered huge questions about both men’s greatness. I also really wish Khabib vs. Tony happened, since I wish we knew what Tony had at his peak against an opponent like Khabib. There was also a lot of passion in that match-up. A more under the radar match-up I would have loved to see was Jose Aldo vs. prime Anthony Pettis.
We’re Going Streaking!
Q: Who’s the next guy talented enough to go on a 16 fight win streak? With the overall level of competition, do you think it’ll ever happen again? (cavemanoncomputer)
Andrew Richardson: Man, that’s such an impossible question! There are too many ways to lose. It can’t be someone like Umar or Usman Nurmagomedov (unless you count Usman’s PFL wins in the streak) because they’re already fighting such high-level guys. It’s some under-the-radar fighter who, like Islam, will win eight in a row before getting off the undercard.
Jesse Holland: No fighter in this generation will match Islam’s mark – and no active fighter is currently in the Top 10; meaning, you need 12 straight wins just to hit No. 10 and the more the sport evolves, the better the competition gets – and the harder it is to keep winning. Islam’s mark may turn out to be the Joe Dimaggio hit streak of UFC.
Ryan Harkness: It took 14 years for someone to come along and break Anderson Silva’s record. The competition in UFC is tougher than ever these days. I wouldn’t be surprised if Makhachev’s record stands for twenty plus years.
Tim Edwards: I find it hard to believe anyone in UFC goes on a streak like that. I think there’s more parity across the roster now than any other time. We’re seeing that right now with how often big favorites are getting beaten. If I’m going to throw a dart at a fighter who might go on an exceptional run, I’ll pick Ateba Gautier. He’s got the touch of death and is 5-0 and is, allegedly, only 24.
Scoring Snaffus
Q: I thought of this question while watching Makhachev and Garry. Does borrowing boxing’s scoring system (10 point rounds, winner of most rounds wins the fight) incentivize risk-averse fighting in MMA? Between Islam’s focus on positional control, and Garry focusing on maintaining technical control, I started to wonder (after a few Guinnesses) if there’s a better system. Can you imagine a better system? (The Sassing Machine)
Andrew Richardson: There is already the PRIDE/One-style scoring that’s based on the whole fight. Sometimes I like that better, because five minutes of real damage can feel more important than ten of stalling.
Jesse Holland: Keep the current system – but bring back the PRIDE yellow card.
Ryan Harkness: It’s not the scoring system and it’s not the scoring parameters. Technically, we have a ‘Just Bleed’ system already in place where damage dealt is superior to all other metrics. The problem is the risk-to-reward ratio generated by the UFC’s pay scale. Champions make several times more than non-champions. Without the belt, UFC fighters could fight 3-4 times and struggle to break a million after taxes. The champion makes multi-millions per bout. Of course guys are going to fight as conservatively as needed to maintain that pay.
Anton Tabuena: I’ve always thought it’s the judges (and the commission) that’s the bigger problem than the actual scoring. Most fights are judged on just three rounds, so mistakes are easier felt when most of them turn the 10-point must into a 10-9 must system.
Tim Edwards: The 10-9 must system is one of those things MMA has that has simply been grandfathered in from boxing, despite it not being a great fit. I think the perfect scoring system for MMA would be the computer scoring system we had in amateur boxing (including at the Olympics) between 1992 and 2012. In that system five judges have a button and the pressed it whenever they thought an opponent landed a clean scoring punch. If three of the five judges pressed close to the same time a point was given to the boxer. This scoring was also open. I think it would be great for corners and fighters to see their scores going up as they did score-worthy things, like landing punches, takedowns, passing guard, attempting/defending submissions, etc.
Engage!
Q: Are we all sick of fighters being so hesitant and unwilling to engage? Tired of boring co mains and main events. (Bootylam)
Jesse Holland: I was disgusted with Ian Garry at UFC 330 (no, I did not bet on him). The high fives and butt slaps between rounds were the most offense he scored all night. How do you expect to win a fight by throwing one punch/kick every 30 seconds? So frustrating. Yoel Romero was another one. He tried to beat Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title at UFC 248 and threw six punches in the first round, 14 in the second round, and another 14 in the third round – and didn’t attempt a single takedown until Round 4. Get the f–k outta here.
Ryan Harkness: I blame a system where most fighters struggle to crack a million per fight while champions make several times that much. Even when a champ loses, they often go right back down to that subpar pay. Given that, I’m not surprised a lot of championship fights are risk-adverse standoffs. I’m actually surprised more aren’t.
Andrew Richardson: I feel like I got really deep into the sport at a time where cage control and lay-and-pray were at their most valuable. Compared to 2008-2012, the average fight is much more engaging IMO.
Alex Behunin: Yes, it is absolutely brutal to watch. Thankfully it doesn’t happen too often … but when it does – it’s basically unwatchable.
Out Of Control (Time)
Q: Is dominating “control time” still being over valued when the position is not being used to cause damage either via strikes or submission attempts? (Sekatdab)
Andrew Richardson: I think so. Didn’t the judges just give round four to Islam when Garry clearly did all the damage? Perception has come a long way, but “takedown to steal the round” is still a lingering concept.
Jesse Holland: The numbers support it. Islam only threw 10 strikes in Round 4 at UFC 330 and landed just seven, but his two takedowns added up to 3:05 in control time. According to judges Mike Bell and Sal D’Amato, that outweighed Garry’s 41 of 49 strikes landed.
Alex Behunin: It feels like the judges are picking and choosing what they want to score nowadays. And while I do like that damage is the number one thing to score, being held down against your will must account for something at least.
Tim Edwards: It certainly feels like control time is swaying judges when it happens on the ground. I do think we’re seeing judges getting less swayed with control time on the feet, though. I feel like we’re seeing fighters losing rounds despite pushing someone into the fence for long periods of time (while not causing any damage).
Fluffy To Move Down?
Q: We’ve seen a few MW’s recently make the move to LHW, with Paulo Costa, Reinier de Ridder, and Robert Whittaker as recent examples, but Anthony Hernandez looked noticeably smaller than Gregory Rodrigues this weekend. Should Hernandez maybe consider a move down to WW to try and get his career on track? (Igl00Man)
Andrew Richardson: Hernandez only weighed two pounds less than Robocop per the official numbers released. I don’t know if Welterweight is in his future, but perhaps a better S&C routine and diet could improve his durability and size.
Jesse Holland: Hernandez turns 33 in just a few weeks and already cuts a decent amount of weight to make 185, so I don’t think that’s in the cards for him at this point. I’m also not sure a change of scenery would yield different results. He’s just not well-rounded enough to make it to the promised land.
Alex Behunin: Fluffy actually addressed this during fight week – he can’t make WW. I just think he’s kind of hit his peak. If a fighter can target his body (and now his legs) and stuff his wrestling, he’s dead in the water.
Tim Edwards: The eye test would suggest that Fluffy has some pounds he could shed to get down to Welterweight. But I don’t know if it’s worth it. His too losses are to the best in the division and a guy who was a terrible match-up for him.
Royce 2000
Q: If prime Royce Gracie years were early 2000’s, Is he basically Demian Maia? Or am I slagging Maia? (gadgetsCA)
Andrew Richardson: If we assume prime Royce fights at 170 in the early 2000s, he’s still getting steamrolled by Matt Hughes, Frank Trigg, and many more. Maia fought for gold twice — I don’t think Royce achieves the same.
Jesse Holland: Maia worked really hard to improve his striking after getting obliterated by Nate Marquardt at UFC 102 and actually got it to a respectable level. I think people don’t realize that Royce Gracie was not exceptional at jiu-jitsu and he struggled in competitions in his native Brazil. Royce later found success in the United States, specifically UFC, where most fighters had little-to-no knowledge of jiu jitsu or how to defend against holds.
Anton Tabuena: Royce Gracie was basically from the stone age and the sport evolved so much even up to the early 2000s, that he wouldn’t really be competitive. Even if you ignore his absence of striking and have people take him on his strengths, he would still get easily outwrestled, subbed, or TKO’d by welterweights of that era. Maia was an elite world champion grappler, Royce isn’t. It’s just that his opponents didn’t know what ground fighting even meant. I wouldn’t even pick Royce against much smaller lightweights of that era – like BJ Penn, Matt Serra, Caol Uno, Jens Pulver or Din Thomas. Genki Sudo would dance his way to such an easy and embarrassing win that the Gracie family would disown him.
Alex Behunin: Yeah, Royce Gracie gets fucked up in the 2000’s. Still a legend though.
Why All The Finishes?
Q: Do you think recent run of finish-heavy events is just a statistical fluke or a matchmaking hot streak, or is there more to it, like a larger shift in approach? (FKA Pudge)
Andrew Richardson: I think it’s a combination of randomness and cards filled with lower-level talent. Really good guys don’t get finished that often even by other really good guys, but put two mediocre talents with no defense in the cage …
Jesse Holland: Andrew made a really good point and I’ll add to that. Top guys don’t typically get finished as much because they take fewer risks. Not only because they’re smarter, but also because they have a brand to protect. That’s why you see guys ripping up the regionals or cleaning house on “Contender Series” then once the big money comes in, it’s decision, decision, decision.
Alex Behunin: The Matchmakers are booking a bunch of squash matches full of UFC rookies and vets vs. cans, plus the roster is bloated as hell right now with fighters that would have never got signed in 2017.
Tim Edwards: UFC are looking to capitalize on our shortening attention spans. And if Dana is involved at all these days, I’m sure he’s wanting to Power Slap-ify the promotion and gear it towards social media impressions. Vierwership, when it comes to watch a card from home, is one of the least important metrics for these folks now. They care about ticket sales (thanks to their absurd prices), site fees, commercial partnerships and government contracts beyond all of that. This is why we’re having UFC Shanghai at 3 a.m. in the morning. I think social media impressions are probably more important to them, too. So they want five second clips that can go viral above all else. And it seems clear they are booking fights where they think they can get it. We see lopsided odds on every card now. And we see good fighters with more tedious styles left on the bench for longer and longer periods.
Catching Up
Q: What’s your approach when life intervenes and you can’t watch an event live? Watch replays/highlights/finishes? Check results or go in blind? (FKA Pudge)
Andrew Richardson: I almost never missed cards because my role here doesn’t allow that. If somebody is covering for me, however, I’ll still watch highlights and read discussions/recaps to stay informed.
Jesse Holland: I’ve been covering MMA for more than 20 years and very few fights excite me enough to watch spoiler-free replays if I miss them live, so I’ll usually just log onto Mania and see who did what.
Alex Behunin: The last card I missed live was UFC 278 because I was at a concert with my wife. Before that was in 2012 when I was in rehab.
Tim Edwards: I’m the play-by-play guy, I gotta catch all this stuff live. I’ve missed three shows in two years. In those situations, I read what my colleagues wrote about them and only watched them later — while watching tape for whatever betting post I was writing featuring those fighters.
Quick hits
Q: My question is for Andrew – Why’d you stop doing the fighter on fighter breakdowns before the numbered ufc events? It used to be one of my most anticipated articles. (FightFan)
Andrew Richardson: Sadly, the juice was rarely worth the squeeze in terms of my energy put in versus the amount of people reading them. Also, there are almost no new stars, so I end up recycling the same handful of fighters who main event numbered cards. For example, I last wrote a breakdown of Alex Pereira in Nov. 2023, and if I were to write another ahead of his next fight … How could it be that different? He’s been fighting forever and his style is written in stone.
Q: Given that LHW is pretty awful right now, how high is the ceiling for Whittaker? (cavemanoncomputer)
Andrew Richardson: I think Whittaker could beat Khalil or Blachowicz on his best night but would struggle with Ankalaev, Jiri, and Ulberg.
Jesse Holland: I’m not sure his trajectory looks any different than it did at middleweight. I think beats the crap out of the fighters ranked from 5-15, loses to everyone seated at 1-4 (as well as the champion).
Thomas Myers: He would need to seriously add about 10 pounds of muscle, probably more, if he wanted to really compete with the top of the division at 205. I don’t see him doing that at this stage of his career. RDR is a really large Middleweight and I remember Rob looked so small despite winning. I can’t imagine him going up against someone like Alex Pereira and thinking he has a legitimate chance to win. Whittaker vs. Rountree sounds like a great match up … would love to see that.
Ryan Harkness: Bobby Knuckles can give anyone a fight, but I’m not expecting anything but a good time out of his LHW run. Let’s hope UFC matchmakers book it accordingly.
Alex Behunin: I completely agree with Andrew
Anton Tabuena: Light heavyweight sucks, and he can climb the ladder with proper matchmaking. He’d beat most lower ranked guys, and maybe a Jiri fight could be chaotic and entertaining, but Ankalaev and Pereira might be too big for him. I think Whittaker has a better shot at beating Strickland, so he should probably try getting a middleweight title fight instead.
Q: I always read your fight prediction articles for UFC cards. Why are they (mostly) limited to UFC cards? There is often media commentary bemoaning the UFCs dominance of MMA. Predictions of other promotion fight cards would lift the promotion and athlete profiles. Never going to knock the UFC off but it will create interest outside of that bubble. (ugottafireimgunna)
Jesse Holland: We tried that for a while but nobody clicked on them. They are very time consuming and just not worth it.
Q: So MMA finally finds its way into the Olympics and most countries including Russia are participating.Which teams would you bet on to take home Gold, Silver, and Bronze? (AceSpade37)
Anton Tabuena: Similar to Olympic tallying, Russia would probably be #1 with the most gold medals, followed by Brazil and USA. Nigeria would probably do well with a couple of bronze or silver medals too if key UFC stars choose to represent them.
Tim Edwards: Russia, USA, Brazil. If they do amatuer rules, though, I think a lot of European nations have a chance to get the podium (the IMMAF scene is pretty vibrant there).
Q: Does Jake Paul try to stage cross-promotional championship fights with other well-known global promotions (i.e. Rizin, ONE, KSW, etc) to bring more “legitimacy” to the level of competition? Does he team up with Scott Coker’s new promotion?(Ryan Hall v. Khabib)
Andrew Richardson: Taking a page from boxing’s playbook with cross-promotional bookings would be an interesting way to generate hype and legitimacy. I don’t know if it happens, but there could be some bidding wars in the future?
Jesse Holland: I would all but guarantee cross-promoting with Scott Coker, who was known for that sorta thing back in the day (ie Fedor and M-1). KSW and ONE have nothing to offer and Rizin would probably only entertain the idea for its New Year’s Eve supershow.
Alex Behunin: I sure hope so.
