Following the Week 7 blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Dan Quinn said the coaching staff would use the long week to make adjustments on both sides of the ball prior to the primetime meeting with Kansas City Chiefs.
Through the first half of the game, the adjustments seemed to be working, despite a few mistakes and lapses here and there. Going into the break, the score was tied 7-7, with the Commanders enjoying a greater than 4 minute lead in time of possession, with a 71.4% to 42.9% advantage in 3rd
down efficiency, and leading in total net yds (194 to 156) and net passing yards (152 to 86), with a +2 turnover differential.
After the half, Washington’s defense was unable to contain Patrick Mahomes and a resurgent Chiefs’ offense. The Chiefs scored three unanswered touchdowns, to punish the Commanders for failing to capitalize on their turnovers in the first half.
The third consecutive loss reduces Washington to the slimmest margin of error in the quest for a return to the playoffs. They will need to win 6 or 7 of the remaining 9 games to give themselves a reasonable chance to earn a Wild Card berth. That will be a challenge, with 5 of their upcoming games against teams with 5 or 6 wins.
But it’s not impossible. Teams have come back from worse starts to make the post-season and win playoff games.
To keep their playoff hopes alive, the Commanders will need to start finding ways to win tough contests soon. Despite the disappointing finish, there were some positive developments on Monday night which they might be able to build on. These included young players getting more opportunities and stepping up on offense and defense, and a few vets flashing reminders of their former all-star form.
One hopeful sign of improvement in Monday’s game was that the Commanders got the penalties under control. Washington players were called for five penalties, one on offense and four on defense. Of those, only three were accepted for 35 yards. That represents a sharp turnaround from the previous game in Dallas, when they were assessed a season high 118 penalty yards. It was the lowest number of accepted penalties on the Commanders this season (previous low 5 – CHI, GB), and the second lowest number of penalty yards (GB 30 yds).
Mistakes and mental errors have been a problem all season. If the low penalty count on Monday was the result of hard coaching, then they might just have a chance.
A Note on Stats Sources
Stats were sourced from the NFL, Pro Football Reference (PFR), Pro Football Focus (PFF), or ESPN. NFL official stats were used whenever available. When the source is not indicated, it means either than NFL official stats were used or that there was agreement between stats service.. The source is indicated when there was disagreement between services or if the stat is only available from one source (eg. PFF: stops, run stops, Y/RR, QB hurries). QBR is proprietary to ESPN.
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
Expected Points Added (EPA) quantifies the contribution of individual plays to a team’s scoring potential on a drive. These are all the plays with EPA > 1.99 or <-1.99.
Biggest Plays for Commanders
Q2, 1:04, 3rd and 10 at KAN 11: Marcus Mariota pass incomplete short right intended for Terry McLaurin Replay Assistant challenged the pass completion ruling, and the original play was overturned. Marcus Mariota pass complete short right to Terry McLaurin for 11 yards, touchdown. EPA 3.87
Q3, 1:59, 3rd and 7 at WAS 38: Marcus Mariota pass incomplete deep left intended for Terry McLaurin WAS challenged the pass completion ruling, and the original play was overturned. Marcus Mariota pass complete deep left to Terry McLaurin for 25 yards. EPA 2.69
Q2, 3:20 3rd and 5 at KAN 39: Marcus Mariota pass complete short left to Jeremy McNichols for 18 yards. EPA 2.09
Q1, 4:14, 3rd and 2 at WAS 15: Marcus Mariota pass complete short right to Jeremy McNichols for 24 yards. EPA 2.01
Q2, 5:17, 2nd and 10 at WAS 34: Marcus Mariota pass complete short left to Ben Sinnott for 22 yards. EPA 1.99
Q1, 5:40, 3rd and 10 at WAS 26: Patrick Mahomes pass deep left intended for Marquise Brown is intercepted by Marshon Lattimore at WAS-7 and returned for no gain. EPA -2.23
Q2, 13:12, 3rd and 4 at WAS 48: Patrick Mahomes pass short middle intended for Travis Kelce is intercepted by Bobby Wagner at WAS-40 and returned for 1 yard. EPA -3.21
Biggest Plays for the Chiefs
Q3, 10:19, 4th and 2 at WAS 2: Patrick Mahomes pass complete short right to Kareem Hunt for 2 yards, touchdown. EPA 3.75
Q4, 7:59, 2nd and 8 at WAS 18: Patrick Mahomes pass complete short left to Rashee Rice for 18 yards, touchdown. EPA 3.04
Q3, 12:49, 1st and 10 at WAS 47: Patrick Mahomes pass complete short right to Travis Kelce for 38 yards. EPA 2.68
Q1, 7:41, 4th and 1 at KAN 41: Kareem Hunt up the middle for 5 yards. EPA 2.64
Q3, 3:26, 2nd and 6 at WAS 10: Patrick Mahomes pass complete short right to Travis Kelce for 10 yards, touchdown. EPA 2.29
Q1, 6:31, 2nd and 9 at KAN 47: Patrick Mahomes pass complete deep right to Xavier Worthy for 27 yards. EPA 2.25
Q2, 8:33, 1st and 10 at KAN 47: Patrick Mahomes pass complete deep right to Travis Kelce for 31 yards. EPA 2.05
Q2, 10:35, 4th and 1 at KAN 28: Marcus Mariota pass incomplete deep left intended for Terry McLaurin. EPA -2.53
Q4, 0:24, 1st and 10 at WAS 43: Marcus Mariota pass short left intended for Zach Ertz is intercepted by Jack Cochrane at 50 and returned for no gain. EPA -4.06
Q1, 9:55, 1st and 10 at KAN 18: Marcus Mariota pass short left intended for Deebo Samuel is intercepted by Michael Danna at KC-22 and returned for 10 yards. EPA -5.44
OFFENSE
In his third start of the season filling in for an injured Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota completed 21/30 passes (70%) for 213 yds and 1 TD with 2 INT. According to PFF, he was pressured on He took 2 sacks for 13 yds and was pressured on 42.9% of dropbacks and took 2 sacks for 13 yds (13.3% Pressure to Sack Rate). His receivers dropped 3 of his catchable throws (12.5% Drop Rate).
Mariota led the Commanders in rushing with 8 attempts for 28 yds (3.5 Y/A), 1 first down and 1 fumble, out of bounds (Success Rate 37.5%). Mariota’s effort was good for a 61.4 Total QBR, which tied him at 14th in the league in Week 8 with his opponent, Patrick Mahomes.
Bill Croskey-Merritt was second on the team in rushing yards, with 9 attempts for 25 yds (2.8 Y/A) and 2 first downs (Success Rate 55.6%). He had 1 passing target and no catches.
According to PFR, Bill averaged just 1.3 YBC/att, and gained 13 of his total 25 yards after contact. He has not averaged more than 1.9 YBC/att in the last three games.
Jeremy McNichols had one carry for 4 yds and a first down, with just 1 YBC. He led the team in receiving yards, catching 5/6 tgts (83.3%, ADOT -1.0 yd) for 64 yds and 3 first downs. He was second in receiving Success Rate (66.7%) and first in receiving productivity (3.76 Y/RR) and YAC/Rec (13.0 yds) among Commanders with more than 1 target.
Chris Rodriguez had 1 rushing attempt for 2 yds.
Terry McLaurin made his return from the quad injury suffered in the Week 3 win over the Raiders. He led the WRs with 54 receiving yards and 1 spectacular touchdown (3 rec/4 tgt, ADOT 20.5 yds). He was the Commanders’ second most productive receiver with multiple targets at 3.38 Y/RR, and led that group in Success Rate at 75%. He caught his only contested target.
Luke McCaffrey was second to Terry, catching 3/3 targets (ADOT 4.3 yds) for 24 yds and 1 first down (66.7% Success Rate). He has not dropped a pass this season.
Deebo Samuel caught 3/6 targets for 11 yds (50% rec, ADOT 4.8 yds). He had 1 concentration drop which resulted in an interception. His 33.3% receiving Success Rate was, surprisingly, only the third lowest among Commanders with multiple targets. His receiving productivity was second lowest on the team at 0.42 Y/RR. He had 1 rushing attempt for 1 yd.
Jaylin Lane caught 1/2 targets for 0 yds, with 1 dropped pass (0% Success Rate).
Chris Moore was not targeted.
Ben Sinnott and John Bates had identical stat lines. They jointly led the TEs in receiving yards, each catching 1/1 targets for 22 yds. Sinnott was by far the most productive receiver on the team at 11.0 Y/RR, by virtue of only running 2 routes and being targeted on one of them. Bates was not bad at 2.44 Y/RR.
Zach Ertz picked up the rear, catching 4/6 targets for 16 yds (16.7% Success Rate) and 1 dropped pass. He was the third least productive among receivers who were targeted at 0.64 Y/RR.
Brandon Coleman filled in at LT for starter Laremy Tunsil, who left the game twice with a hamstring injury. According to PFF, he allowed 3 QB hurries on 30 snaps in pass protection (10% Pressure Rate). That’s about twice the rate of pressure allowed that we’d like to see at OT, but it was a small sample size, in his first game at OT this season. PFF gave him the highest run block grade on the team at 75.8.
LG Chris Paul had a solid game in pass protection, allowing just 1 QB hurry in 36 snaps (2.8% Pressure Rate). He earned the lowest PFF run blocking grade on the team, but was still above average at 56.0.
C Tyler Biadasz allowed 2 hurries in 36 pass blocking snaps (5.6% Pressure Rate). He earned a solid 62.5 run blocking grade.
RG Sam Cosmi allowed 1 hurry and 1 sack, the latter on an apparent blown assignment (Pressure Rate 5.6%). He earned a 63.8 run blocking grade.
Rookie RT Josh Conerly Jr had another rough outing, allowing 1 sack and 4 hurries (13.9% Pressure Rate). He rated much better as a run blocker, with a 64.1 grade. Conerly also Committed Washington’s only penalty on offense – a false start flag for 5 yards.
Laremy Tunsil was limited 13 offensive snaps by a hamstring injury. He allowed 1 hurry before going down (16.7% Pressure Rate). He earned a 57.3 run blocking grade.
DEFENSE
Jacob Martin led the Commanders in sacks (2) and total QB pressures. NFL official stats credit him with 3 QB hits, in addition to the sacks. Using those stats, he led the edge rushers with a 15.6% Pressure Rate. He also recorded 2 TFL, to bring him up to 4 defensive stops, and had 1 missed tackle.
Jalyn Holmes had a good game in run defense. According to PFF, he led the team in total run stops (4) and run stop rate (30.8), both by a factor of 2. The NFL recorded 2 tackles and 2 assists, all of which PFF counted as stops. Holmes also generated 1 QB hurry on 10 pass rush snaps (10% Pressure Rate).
Von Miller only generated 1 QB hurry on 15 pass rush snaps (6.7% Pressure Rate).
Preston Smith kept a clean stat sheet.
Javon Kinlaw made 1 tackle and 2 assists, for 2 stops, with 2 missed tackles. He generated 1 QB hit in the pass rush and, according to PFF also forced 2 hurries (11.1% Pressure Rate).
Johnny Newton was arguably the most impactful interior defender, and certainly the most productive on a down to down basis. The NFL credits Newton with 2 tackles and 2 assists, 1 sack for 11 yds, 2 QB hits and 1 forced fumble (recovered by Chiefs). Based on official stats, Newton generated pressure on an amazing 37.5% of pass rush attempts. PFF credits him with 2 defensive stops.
Newton picked up his first penalty of the season, an unnecessary roughness infraction for 15 yards following his sack of Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter. It was his fourth penalty as a Commander.
Daron Payne made 1 tackle for a stop, and generated 2 QB hurries in the pass rush per PFF.
Eddie Goldman had 1 tackle assist, and generated 1 QB hurry on just 10 pass rush attempts.
The league credits Sheldon Day with 1 tackle. PFF counted the tackle as a stop and added 1 QB hurry in the pass rush.
Bobby Wagner was the Commanders’ second most prolific tackler this week, after Quan Martin. Wagner made 7 tackles and 3 assists, with 1 interception and 1 PBU according to the NFL. He made 1 stop, per PFF, and missed 1 tackle.
In coverage, he allowed 3 rec/4 tgt for 29 yds and 1 TD, in addition to the INT and the PBU.
Frankie Luvu was used predominantly as an edge defender. He generated 1 QB hit and 1 hurry in 28 pass rush snaps (7.1% Pressure Rate). Luvu made 1 tackle and 2 assists, with 1 stop.
According to PFF, he allowed 1 rec/1 tgt for 25 yds in coverage. PFR credited the reception to another defender.
Jordan Magee played a full-time starter’s load for the first time in his career. He made 3 tackles and 1 assist, with no stops and 1 missed tackle per PFR (0 misses per PFF). According to PFF, he had 4 targets in coverage, allowing 3 rec for 57 yds. PFR counted 2 rec for 26 yds.
Marshon Lattimore played his best game as a Commander, effectively shutting down receivers in his coverage and making plays on the ball. In 43 coverage snaps, PFR counted 1 rec/2 tgt for 25 yds (0.58 Y/Cov Snap). PFF counted 1 tgt and 0 rec (0 Y/Cov Snap). He also made 1 interception and 1 PBU.
Rookie Trey Amos had another lockdown performance as well, with the possible exception of allowing 1 TD. PFR credits him with allowing 2 rec/4 tgt for 8 yds and 1 TD (0.19 Y/Cov Snap); while PFF counted 1 rec/3 tgt for 6 yds, without the TD. The NFL recorded 1 PBU. This was his 6th game this season allowing less than 0.7 Y/Cov Snp, which places him in the “lockdown” corner range. According to PFR, he is leading the rookie CB class with 6 PBU. PFF places him 2nd in class with 4. PFR’s figure agrees with official NFL stats.
In addition, Trey made 2 tackle assists with 1 stop and either 1 (PFR) or 2 (PFF) missed tackles.
One contributing factor to the shutdown coverage by the outside CBs might be that Mike Sainristil drew target shares from them. According to PFR, he allowed 5 rec/6 tgt for 56 yds in 33 coverage snaps (1.70 Y/Cov Snap). PFF saw it even worse, with 6 rec/7 tgt for 100 yds (3.03 Y/Cov Snp). Either way, it was his worst game in coverage this season.
Mikey also contributed 3 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 missed tackle and 0 stops.
Quan Martin was the Commanders’ leading tackler this week with 10 tackles and 4 assists, with 1 stop. PFF credits him with a missed tackle, but not PFR.
The two stats services saw very different things in coverage. PFF counted 3 rec/3 tgt for 16 yds. PFR, on the other hand, recorded 7 rec/7 tgt for 107 yds.
Quan was penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness in the third quarter. It was his third penalty as a pro.
Jeremy Reaves was productive, with 5 tackles and 1 assist, 2 TFL and 3 stops. According to PFF, he allowed 3 rec/3 tgt in 22 coverage snaps for just 6 receiving yards. PFR counted 4 rec/4 tgt for 16 yds. Either way, he was effective in coverage.
Reaves was called for defensive holding in the 3rd quarter, but the penalty was declined.
Tyler Owens played the most defensive snaps of his career. He was ramping up his defensive playing time through the first three weeks, then got a break until Monday night. Owens made 2 tackles and 1 assist with 1 defensive stop. He allowed 1 rec/1 target in 15 coverage snaps for a 2 yd TD by Kareem Hunt, per PFF. PFR counted 2 rec/2 tgt for 49 yds, including the TD.
Darnell Savage made 2 tackles and 1 forced fumble which was recovered by the Chiefs. In 17 coverage snaps, PFF recorded 4 rec/4 tgt for 58 yds and 1 TD by Travis Kelce. PFR saw 3 rec/3 tgt for 49 yds and the TD.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Luke McCaffrey continued to impress with 1 return for 37 yds and 0 fair catches. He currently ranks 2nd in return average at 30 YPA behind Seattle’s Dareke Young (32.2 YPA) among players with a minimum of 10 kick returns.
Filling in for injured Matt Gay, K Matthew Wright was 1/1 on extra points and did not get an opportunity to attempt a field goal.
Tress Way booted 3 punts for 142 yds (long 59), with 2 returned for 13 yds (47.3 YPA, 43.0 Net YPA), and 1 downed inside the Chiefs’ 20 yd line.
Tyler Ott snapped 4 times without incident.
Jaylin Lane had 1 punt return for 14 yards, to bring his season average up to 13.9 YPA, which ranks 4th highest among players with a minimum of 10 returns. However, he is the only player within the top 10 punt returners with 2 or more muffed catches.
Lane’s first attempt at kick returns did not go as well. He attempted 3 returns, running 1 back for 30 yds, getting stopped for 0 yds on another, and fumbling the third out of bounds at the WAS 2 yard line, rather than allowing the ball to bounce into the end zone for a touchback.
Percy Butler and Jeremy Reaves made tackles on returns. Luke McCaffrey and Nick Bellore joined forces on one as well.
Bellore, John Bates and Antonio Hamilton had one missed tackle apiece.
There were no penalties on the Commanders’ special teams units.
