He was good. Then he was disappointing. Then he got hurt.
One could also say that Alvarado’s injury was a major inflection point for the 2025 Phillies season and not really in the good way.
2025 stats
28 G, 26 IP, 7 SV, 28.1 K%, 6.1 BB%, 1.38 HR/9, 3.81 ERA (3.60 FIP), 0.3 fWAR
What went right
About the only positive thing to say about Jose Alvarado in 2025 is that his walk rate was one of the lowest in his career. Otherwise, he really, really messed up last year.
What went wrong
Pretty much everything.
Alvarado’s PED suspension hurt the team’s bullpen because he was pitching well and his absence forced everyone into a role they were not truly meant for when the team laid out its plans for the season. Without him at the end of games to lock down the ninth inning, they were forced to roll through different options in the spot, including the failure that was Jordan Romano.
One doesn’t want to think about flapping wings on butterflies and such, but consider the following questions if Alvarado is able to legally play the entire 2025 and was as effective as he was in the early part of the season:
- Is someone like Romano able to figure out his struggles in a lower leverage role?
- Are the other relievers as effective if they aren’t forced into roles they weren’t suited for?
- Does the team need to go get Jhoan Duran at the trade deadline?
The trade for Duran is probably something that does happen regardless of whether or not Alvarado was suspended or not. They loved having relievers that can throw hard in the playoffs and a Duran-Alvarado duo would have been something to behold.
However, Alvarado made a poor decision. Choosing to put something in his body that was considered by MLB to be illegal cost the team dearly. It may have cost him a multiyear deal as well.
The future with the Phillies
The team decided that picking up Alvarado’s 2026 option for $9 million was a wise decision and it’s hard to argue. The price of good relief pitching and only having to commit to Alvarado for one season is an easy choice. If he’s good, which he should be motivated to be after his missteps in 2025, then they can think about going beyond next season then. If he’s bad, they don’t have a ton of money flowing his way beyond the 2026 season.
There’s reason to think that he’ll be fine this coming season so long as his elbow issues are behind him. The fact that it was the dreaded “elbow inflammation” can sometimes portend doom, but maybe it was just being out of routine that caused it to flare up. The leash will probably be long for him, but really, should it be?
