Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 6 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Rice Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: Houston (-13.5)
- Over/under: 39.5
- All-time series: Houston leads, 34-12
- Last meeting: Houston 33, Rice 7 — September 14, 2024
- Current streak: Houston, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Two programs. One red, one blue. Forever separated by five miles and forever united by one bucket.
Houston and Rice first settled things on the football field in 1971, and three years later, the Touchdown Club of Houston decided to spice up the newly-established crosstown rivalry with a trophy — a 3-foot tall antique brass bucket hoisted on a wooden pedestal, which came to be known as the Bayou Bucket.
Houston and Rice have fought for this bucket for over five decades now, squaring off 46 times from
1971 to 2024. But the 47th meeting holds extra weight, because the victor will simply keep the Bayou Bucket in their facilities for the foreseeable. This is the last scheduled addition of this crosstown rivalry — one of many rivalries that fell victim to the 2020s wave of conference realignment.
Both schools hired new athletic directors within the past 26 months, so there remains hope the red and blue paths cross again in Houston. But for now, this is the final claim to gridiron superiority in the nation’s 4th-largest city. And for the first time in 47 meetings, both teams enter with undefeated records without the matchup serving as a season opener.
Houston Cougars outlook
For the first time since Week 1 of the 2023 season, Houston is above .500. The jump from the American to the Big 12 hasn’t been a smooth transition for the Cougars, but with head coach Willie Fritz entering year two on the sidelines, there is a new wave of hope throughout the city about what he can accomplish with his new roster.
One reason for that hope is the presence of quarterback Conner Weigman. The former 5-star recruit and Texas A&M transfer made his Cougar debut Thursday night of Week 1. He finished 15-of-24 for 159 passing yards and three touchdowns, becoming the first Cougar over 150 yards with three scores in a debut. After injuries served as his No. 1 obstacle at Texas A&M, Weigman enjoyed his healthiest offseason yet and that showed in the mobility department. The Cypress, TX native broke free for 39 yards on six attempts, registering Houston’s longest rush of the night in a 27-yard scamper.
Weigman provides an improvement for a group which ranked 133rd in scoring offense and 126th in passing production in 2024, but the offense is far from a finished product under new coordinator Slade Nagle. Houston managed just three touchdowns and punt seven times against FCS Stephen F. Austin, plagued by five three-and-outs. What the Cougars need to shore up most is the offensive line, where Fritz is currently rotating seven in hopes of settling on a five-man grouping. There were times when five transfers played together, and the head coach cited improved stamina as an area of progress for the position group going forward.
Houston couldn’t break long runs behind its line in Week 1, but the Cougars can feel comfortable about their depth at running back. Losing 2024 leading rusher Re’Shaun Sanford II due to a season-ending knee injury in 1 practice leading up to Week 1 was brutal, but Houston still totes several viable options. The lead back in Week 1 was Rice transfer Dean Connors, who will switch from blue to red after spending the last three Bayou Buckets with the Owls (contributing 130 scrimmage yards in Rice’s 2023 win). Connors will likely split time with Stacy Sneed and J’Marion Burnette, making a three-man grouping of capable runners and pass-catchers alike.
Running backs will likely play a large role in the passing game, but Houston needs to show a greater presence at wide receiver. Only six of the Cougars’ 16 Week 1 completions went in the direction of wide receivers. UAB transfer Amare Thomas led the group with three receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown. While that was a promising Houston debut, the Cougars expect more production from its returning receivers such as Stephon Johnson, Mekhi Mews, and Koby Young. However, the top candidate to lead the team in receptions hails from the tight end position.
Tanner Koziol finished sixth in the FBS with 94 receptions a year ago, and Koziol’s debut built on that with seven receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown. The 6’7”, 250 pounder is a matchup nightmare, and his catch radius makes overthrows and underthrows right in his wheelhouse.
Defensively, Houston delivered a dynamite performance in Week 1. Yes, it was an FCS opponent, but Stephen F. Austin never saw a sign of life against a Houston defense that lost seven starters and a coordinator in Shiel Wood. New DC Austin Armstrong guided a defense featuring six starting transfers to a shutout in its debut — Houston’s first in four seasons. The Cougars didn’t allow their opponent to cross the plus 34-yard line, allowing 144 yard at 2.5 per play.
Carlos Allen and Brandon Mack were the veterans bringing pressure up front, which will be needed against Rice’s option offense, but the majority of stars from the opener were 2024 reserves or incoming transfers. Weakside linebacker Jalen Garner set a career-high with six tackles as an efficient run-stopper, while defensive back transfers Marc Stampley II (Georgia Southern) and C.J. Douglas (FCS Samford) each logged an interception. Houston played at an impressive speed, consistently flying around to the ball. The team totaled seven pass deflections with new corners Will James and Zelmar Vedder making several spectacular plays on their assignments.
The other promising sign for the Cougars was special teams success. After faring 18-of-28 on field goals since joining the Big 12, Old Dominion transfer Ethan Sanchez sunk a pair of 40+ yard shots, giving Houston more comfort of scoring from distance.
Rice Owls outlook
Rice endured 10 consecutive losing seasons and decided to experiment with something new. The Owls hired Scott Abell in November, bringing on a head coach that transformed other academic powers such as Washington and Lee (Division III) and Davidson (FCS) into consistent football winners.
Abell has his own methods of building these programs, installing a spread option offense to make it all work. At Rice, it’s called the “Rice gun choice,” which is a spread up-tempo shotgun that utilizes plenty of pre-snap eye candy and motions to throw defenses off. Abell’s offense ranked atop the FCS in rushing offense last year, while featuring top-11 ranks in fewest turnovers committed, scoring offense, and total offense.
At Rice, the success is already showing. The Owls stormed into the newly-renovated house of the reigning Sun Belt West champions and pulled off an upset as double-digit underdogs. Rice defeated Louisiana 14-12 last Saturday to secure its first 1-0 record in seven years.
The option attack certainly caught the Ragin’ Cajuns off-guard from the jump. Rice produced both touchdowns in the first half, and the second score was a 17-yard right-to-left reverse to UConn and Cincinnati transfer Aaron Turner. The reason that play worked? Louisiana’s high safety bit on a fake jet sweep to the other slot receiver Drayden Dickmann, who ran left-to-right as one of two decoy ball-carriers in the play.
That play demonstrated the amount of eye discipline a defense needs when containing this option offense, which uses a blocking strategy focused on exploiting gaps and relying on skill position speed. Rice wound up gashing Louisiana with 206 rushing yards in the season opener, excelling with a one-two punch of Quinton Jackson and Daelen Alexander at running back. Jackson produced a career-high 119 yards as the Owls’ new feature back while Alexander (who scored three touchdowns in Rice’s 2024 win over Houston), also set a personal-best with 74.
One element of Rice’s offense which needs progress is the passing game. Quarterback Chase Jenkins completed an efficient 7-of-9 passes in his first start, but those passes traveled a grand total of 45 yards. He only connected on one throw past the sticks, a 23-yard completion to Dickmann who had 44 of the team’s 45 receiving yards. As Louisiana demonstrated in the second half when Rice punted on four-straight drives (three three-and-outs), the Owls struggled on third and longs and obvious passing situations. Abell’s offense stretches the field horizontally well, but this unit can take another level once that vertical element is present.
The main focus of Rice’s opener was the new offensive scheme, but the Owls survived a trip to Louisiana thanks to a relentless defense. Louisiana scored one late third quarter touchdown and sunk lengthy field goals of 47 and 52 yards, as the Owls consistently produced stops. The effort was very defensive line-led as 6’3”, 341 pound nose tackle Blake Boenisch commanded significant attention and blew up the Cajuns’ front. Boenisch hopped on a fumble while his defensive ends Michael Daley (the deflector of Louisiana’s final 4th and 10 pass) and Joseph Mutombo wreaked havoc with 2.5 combined tackles for loss.
Rice also exhibits established talent at linebacker with longtime staples Ty Morris and Andrew Awe returning to the fold. Morris ranked second on the Owls in tackles (56) and tackles for loss (8) in 2024, while the sixth-year senior Awe shined with a team-best seven tackles in Week 1. The unit was challenged against Louisiana by a sharp running back duo a mobile quarterback but still held firm with just 151 rushing yards allowed.
Meanwhile, the passing defense was electrifying by surrendering just 88 yards on a 10-of-28 showing. This is the Owls’ most transformed group with three starting transfers, while no transfers started at defensive line or linebacker. Oregon State transfer Jack Kane snatched a deep ball interception in his Rice debut while new corners Omari Porter and Khary Crump had their assignments locked down.
Lastly, the kicking game remains a bit of an unknown for Rice after zero field goal attempts in the opener. Enock Gota handled both extra points and looks to improve the Owls’ recent kicking track record, which includes 12-straight seasons with a field goal percentage at 75.0 or lower.
Prediction
Week 1 made it very clear that the Cougars and Owls are defensive-driven teams alike. Houston’s defense played a nearly perfect ballgame against Stephen F. Austin amidst plenty of moving parts, while Rice shut down Louisiana’s offense with 12 points on the road.
To what extent will Rice’s option offense challenge Houston? The Cougars didn’t miss many tackles in Week 1 and have plenty of hats flying to the ball on most plays. Houston needs to react quickly to the Owls’ series of fake handoffs and fake jet sweeps and not get lost in bad reads. Forcing Rice into long distance situations on third downs could be a detriment to its offense in the early weeks of the season.
For Rice to win, it must solve its passing attack and keep Houston’s defense on its toes. The Cougar offense proved vulnerable against an FCS opponent with seven punts and five three-and-outs, and the Owls offer enough talent and discipline on the defensive line and linebacker to win matchups against Houston’s newly-assembled o-line.
Defenses will prevail in what’s expected to be the most packed matchup at Rice Stadium in quite some time, but Houston wins bragging rights for the city and can display the Bayou Bucket in its facilities for the foreseeable future.
Prediction: Houston 24, Rice 7
