The Los Angeles Rams are the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2026. At +600 odds, they have an implied probability of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at roughly 14%
.By the very nature of 14%, the Rams probably will not win the Super Bowl this year.
Saying this is not a knock against the team or any of its coaches or players. It’s very difficult to win an NFL championship.
While the Rams may hold bragging rights to the best roster on paper today, there will likely be changes by the time the postseason
rolls around. Attrition is already setting in given the recent drama surrounding Alaric Jackson’s reported legal troubles and it’s a certainty that more will be lost over training camp and when the games begin. This is not a concern that is specific to LA. Each team must manage injuries; however, it often feels like the teams that go the furthest in the playoffs are the ones that stayed the most healthy.
With that said, the Rams are again a top-heavy roster. Losing any of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Myles Garrett, Trent McDuffie, Kobie Turner, etc. dramatically changes the outlook for the team. It’s a similar dynamic to the 2021 champion version of the franchise and the same group was mostly able to overcome a rash of injuries at positions like running back and tight end.
Since 1995, only four preseason Super Bowl favorites have seen through their ambitions. The 2006 Colts, 2016 & 2018 Patriots, and 2023 Chiefs were quarterbacked by Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes, respectively. Fortunately for the Rams, Matthew Stafford is freshly returning from his MVP campaign a season ago. The addition of rookie Ty Simpson should also alleviate his training camp and practice workload in the backend of his career.
This is my only point:
While the Rams are the most likely team to win the Super Bowl in 2026, it is still not a likely outcome. Each franchise enters the season 0-0. No one cares that LA reached its NFC Championship game a year ago and only improved their roster. Each must start fresh and roll the ball back to the top of the mountaintop.
So before we anoint the Rams as Super Bowl champs before the season even begins, let’s appreciate the fact that it is a very difficult thing to accomplish. We can credit Sean McVay and Les Snead for leaving no stone unturned to maximize the remaining window of Stafford’s career. These efforts alone are still not enough. There is much more work that must be done.
