The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-7 after Sunday’s 20-10 loss to the Houston Texans, which has the team teetering on the brink of postseason elimination. Now it faces four must-win games to close the season—
the first against an AFC West rival: the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here’s what I’ll be wondering as the Week 15 matchup gets underway.
1. What is the Chiefs’ spirit in this game?
Last Sunday, the body language from the Chiefs — the players, coaching staff, and even the fans — looked defeated. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce both lying on the ground in frustration was all you needed to see.
Going into the matchup with the Chargers, The Athletic gives the Chiefs a 12% chance to make the playoffs. It was around 16% before Los Angeles’ victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Now, the Chiefs are three games behind the Chargers, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars. With only four losses each and the tiebreaker, it will be nearly impossible to catch the Bills or Jaguars. It would be difficult to catch the Houston Texans as well, who are two games up with the tiebreaker. Kansas City’s only realistic chance of making the playoffs is winning out and hoping the Chargers collapse to finish the regular season.
That should be enough to get the Chiefs up for this game, but Week 14 felt different; it felt like the Chiefs’ last great effort. Defensive tackle Chris Jones and the defense as a whole registered an incredible performance. Considering all the injuries, the offense gave a great effort until the fourth quarter — but the disastrous finish to that game looms over this week.
Can Kansas City get off the mat and summon one more great performance? Can they somehow get some positive momentum going into the last four games? Or was this past Sunday’s effort everything they had? Playing hard does not guarantee a win, but it’s a requirement for them to have a chance.
2. Can the Chiefs’ defensive line wreck this game?
On “Monday Night Football,” the Eagles had seven sacks on Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert, despite some incredible scrambles by him. Herbert rushed for 66 yards over 10 attempts, and the Eagles caused all that disruption without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Herbert had a couple of designed runs, but there were still a handful of awesome scrambles after facing pressure.
With starting offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater out for the season, Los Angeles’ offensive line is arguably worse than Houston’s, which the Chiefs decimated for four quarters last week. This should provide another chance for Jones and company to wreck this game.
Granted, in the Week 1 matchup between these teams, Kansas City’s pass rush was terrible; Alt was in the lineup then. Jones is playing better football now than he did to start the year; that should boost the impact the defensive line has.
I would expect the Chiefs to rely on blitzes this week. Right now, Herbert can’t sit in the pocket and throw downfield much; they don’t have the protection to do that. I would be more willing to play man coverage this week, even if All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie doesn’t play. If Kansas City’s defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, can draw up a similar blitz package as last week, the Chiefs should get more opportunities to pick up sacks.
3. Does Rashee Rice have a bounce-back game?
Once again, wide receiver Rashee Rice got exposed against a team playing man coverage. This happened against the Denver Broncos earlier this year; Rice had just 35 receiving yards. Against the Texans, he earned 19 yards before garbage time.
When Rice has to beat man coverage, he shows his warts as a player. He struggles to separate on routes where he has to change directions. Rice also has poor ball skills when trying to catch through traffic. He’s great at beating zone coverage and incredible after the catch, but the weaknesses cap his ceiling.
To be fair to Rice, he had his best game of the season following the lowly performance in Denver. Rice produced eight catches and 141 yards in the 23-20 overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts. He was facing more zone coverage that game, which allowed Rice to find open throwing windows and accelerate upfield.
The Chargers’ defense is better than the Colts’, but it is a similar structure. The Chargers play shell zone coverage, keeping a lid on everything over the top. In other words, they’re willing to allow quick-hitting passes with the intent of tackling and limiting explosive plays after the catch.
That defensive setup is ideal for Rice. If he can rebound and lock back in, there will be catch-and-run opportunities. If Rice has a similar effort to the game against Indianapolis, I think the offense will look a lot better this week.
