A major league baseball lineup needs to be structured to maximize the ability of the offense to score runs. Having previously outlined what many of the accepted guidelines are for this structure, we discussed possible different placements for different players in the batting order.
Lineup strategy
While it seems obvious that Fernando Tatis Jr. is a great leadoff hitter due to his ability to get on base as well as his speed and base-stealing skills, this is a good spot for him with his 21 home runs
so that he can drive in the successful hitters at the bottom of the order.
The second spot in the order should be a player that also excels at getting on base. With only 15 games left to play in the regular season, it isn’t a stretch to say that this is not the spot that best fits Luis Arraez. Although he has been successful in the past, 2025 has been his worst season as a full-time player and he is hurting the team by manning this spot in the batting order.
Switching Arraez and Cronenworth
At this point in the year, the best OBP on the Padres belongs to Jake Cronenworth. His .370 OBP narrowly beats Tatis at .366 and Ramón Laureano is a close third at .360. Arraez has an OBP of .317 and does not walk as much as a second hole hitter should if he is not hitting and Arraez is not hitting as he has in the past. His average this season, sitting at .282, is the lowest of his career since he became a regular player and he is primarily a singles hitter. Of his 159 hits (second most in baseball), all but 40 of them are singles. Because he has minimal slug (.385) and isn’t hitting like he has in the past, he is a liability in the two-hole.
Freddy Fermin has been a major upgrade for the Padres as the everyday catcher. His offensive numbers have suffered since he began catching approximately 80% of the time. His role as the nine hitter is both appropriate and provides a boost when he is able to be successful with the bat. But that is not his most important job and everyone knows it. Despite that, he is hitting .261/.301/.364 with a .665 OPS. It is possible those would be significantly better if he had a backup catcher that could be used more often.
The value of Arraez
Arraez would almost certainly be a better fit for the seven- or eight-hole in the batting order. Cronenworth has been hitting in the bottom third since the trade deadline and it can’t be disputed that he has thrived in that role. It could be argued moving him to the two-spot could disrupt his role, but switching the two would exchange two left-handed hitters and would not require any other shuffling of the lineup.
One other examination shows that Arraez should be used differently. Although he does have value as a hitter, a .282 batting average is not to be dismissed, he is better served in helping turn the lineup over rather than the way he is currently used.
Using wRC+ to define the order
The use of wRC+ in baseball is helpful in analyzing the overall skill-set of a hitter. It stands for Weighted Runs Created Plus and is one of the measuring sticks that compares one player to an average MLB player. It takes into account the different kinds of hits and outcomes a hitter can have, while also equalizing hitting environments and eras of play. One hundred is the average player so above 100 by any number is how much better percentage-wise a player is than the league average. Same with numbers below 100.
By using wRC+ as a tool to help build a batting order, you would want the better hitters with the most value at the top half of the order. Padres manager Mike Shildt likes the left/right dynamic for the order, which keeps an opposing manager from taking advantage of handedness in using their pitchers. The bottom of the lineup serves the primary purpose of keeping the table set for the best hitters, if possible.
An easy switch
Keeping that dynamic intact, leading off with Tatis puts the player with a 128 wRC+ leading off. If we follow with Cronenworth there is a 121 value for him. With Machado hitting third (122) you maintain a slumping, but still valuable, hitter in the heart of the order. The clean-up hitter should be the most reliable power hitter on the team. It seems there is no question that Laureano has been the best hitter since joining the Padres. His 156 wRC+ towers over everyone else. After that, Sheets (123), Arraez (99), Merrill (106) and Fermin (89) can be placed in a left/right configuration to finish off the order.
This would better reflect the value of Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres. He has not been a .300 hitter for most of the season. He hasn’t even gotten close for the last couple of months. The Padres need to score more runs, that can’t be argued by anyone. Switching Cronenworth and Arraez would not upend the rest of the players and trying to get more value out of Arraez and his skills could only help a team trying to play in the postseason.
