The OTHER MVP Cases (Besides Jonathan Taylor)

Dear Stampede Blue Reader,

As you might have noticed both on our dear SB Nation site and elsewhere on the internet, the conversation around Jonathan Taylor has changed dramatically as of late. From becoming

the Offensive Player of the Year favorite a few weeks ago , to now being discussed as a legitimate MVP Candidate (if not favorite for a lot of analysts) after yet another 3 Touchdown game ignited MVP chants in Lucas Oil Stadium 2 weeks ago, despite Taylor being *gasp* not a Quarterback.

The Colts Running Back is chasing history with his production, and in the process trying to end the 12 year streak of QBs winning the NFL’s most prestigious individual award. Many great RB seasons have tried in those 12 years to dethrone the QBs’ reign, with only 2017 Todd Gurley and 2016 Ezekiel Elliott able to get more than 2 votes (Gurley with 8, Elliott with 6) in the 50 member voting panel from the Associated Press.

But with Taylor potentially being the biggest threat to LaDainian Tomlinson’s Single-Season 31 Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns record with 14 TDs through 9 games (a 26 TD pace through 17 games), his 2025 campaign might dwarf all other RBs’ since Tomlinson’s dominant 2006 year.

Still the precedent is what the precedent is. Despite Taylor’s incredible season thus far, he is not the betting favorite of MVP candidates. Per VegasInsider, which uses the combined odds of 5 leading sportsbooks, Jonathan Taylor has the 11th best odds to win MVP behind 10 Quarterbacks! Taylor’s odds stand between +2500 to +3500 to win it, but 4 QBs have odds better that +600 to win MVP. So let’s play devil’s advocate. What is the case for each of the top QBs in the NFL? Do they have a strong enough season to fend off the pesky Colts back nipping at their heels?

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

The new favorite for the MVP award, Josh Allen surpassed Patrick Mahomes (more on him later) according to oddsmakers after a Week 9 victory over his AFC foe. Allen is no stranger to the award, netting a 1st place MVP vote in 4 of the last 5 seasons and finally winning it last year. If he wins again in 2025, Josh Allen would become the 12th multi-time MVP in NFL history, a feat shared exclusively by NFL Hall of Famers among eligible retired players. Allen would be tied with Mahomes and Lamar Jackson for 2nd most MVPs among active players behind only Aaron Rodgers. A 2nd straight MVP isn’t just about recognition for Allen, it’s about legacy.

Allen’s stats in 2025 and his end of season pace are among the best in the NFL.

• 157/223 (70.4% Comp%) Passing | 334/474 Passing Pace
• 1,833 Passing Yards | 3,895 Passing Yard Pace
• 13 Passing TDs | 28 Passing TD Pace
• 4 INTs | 8-9 INT Pace
• 107 Passer Rating | 106.82-107.7 Passer Rating Pace
• 55 Carries | 117 Carry Pace
• 280 Rushing Yards | 595 Rushing Yard Pace
• 7 Rushing TDs | 15 Rushing TD Pace
• 4 Fumbles | 8-9 Fumble Pace

Josh Allen’s Expected Points Added per Dropback ranks 5th in the NFL with +0.2 as well. He also gets a boost from his clutchness, orchestrating 2 game winning drives already in the season. Overall his TD total would rank Tied 20th in NFL history for a QB, tied with 2020 Tom Brady, 2019 Lamar Jackson, and 2014 Andrew Luck. The former 2 won the MVP award.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

The current betting runner up to win MVP, Mahomes is no stranger to the award buzz. The Chiefs QB won the award in 2018 in his first season as a starter throwing 50 TDs (and Rushing for another 2), the 2nd most TDs in a Season ever behind only Peyton Manning in 2013; and won his 2nd MVP in 2022 after throwing the 4th most Yards in NFL history (5,250) and 41 TDs (rushing for another 4 TDs). Mahomes is one of just 11 NFL players with multiple MVPs, and if he gets another he joins Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Jim Brown, and Johnny Unitas in a 5 way tie for 3rd most MVPs in NFL history behind only Aaron Rodgers (4), and Peyton Manning (5).

Mahomes has been arguably the NFL’s biggest star since 2018, and with 3 Super Bowl Championships, 5 Super Bowl Appearances, and the Chiefs making to ever AFC Championship Game since being named their starting QB the media spotlight has never left him and the team. Even during down years statistically in 2023-2024, there were still some talking heads of the media who wanted to push Mahomes MVP talk despite more dominant players (namely Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson) putting up better numbers.

2025 has been a return to the Chiefs’ passing ways, with the run game sputtering compared to recent years. Mahomes has had to step up once again, and has had a strong season. Despite missing several of his best weapons, Mahomes is still Mahomes. His 2025 stats in 9 games so far and his end of season pace are certainly impressive, especially when considering the absences of Wide Receivers Xavier Worthy at the start of the season and Rashee Rice until the last few games.

• 204/316 Passing (64.6% Completion Percentage) | 385/597 Passing Pace
• 2,349 Passing Yards | 4,437 Passing Yard Pace
• 17 Passing TDs | 32 Passing TD Pace
• 5 INTs | 9 INT Pace
• 98.19 Passer Rating | 98.38 Passer Rating Pace
• 47 Carries | 89 Carry Pace
• 285 Rushing Yards | 538 Rushing Yard Pace
• 4 Rushing TDs | 8 Rushing TD Pace
• 3 Fumbles | 6 Fumble Pace

Mahomes’ case is also strengthened by his advanced stats, as he is 2nd in Expected Points Added (+71.7) and 6th in EPA per Dropback (+0.19). He is also 1st in EPA per dropback against pressure in 2025, continuing to show his trademark elite improvisational skills and calm in the face of pressure.

The biggest thing holding Mahomes back is a lack of team success. The Chiefs are just 5-4 in 2025 so far and are currently on the outside looking in of the AFC Playoffs. If Joe Burrow’s 2024 MVP candidacy was dismissed for not leading the Bengals to the playoffs last year, Mahomes’ 2025 campaign could be as well.

While Mahomes’ stats aren’t at a historic level, his high touchdown numbers, low turnover numbers, and elite play when things break down make him a top contender for the MVP.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

The young up and comer, 2nd year QB Drake Maye took a big leap so far this season. With better weapons (Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins in Free Agency, Kyle Williams in the Draft), much better protection (Will Campbell and Jared Wilson Rounds 1 and 3 of the Draft), and potentially better coaching (Jarod Mayo to Mike Vrabel) a more supported Maye is enjoying 2025 and putting up strong numbers. As of now he has guided the Patriots to a 7-2 record, tied with the Colts and the Broncos for the top of the AFC (currently the 2 seed based off of tiebreakers).

His 2025 Stats paint a story of an emerging elite passer, and could be the successor to Tom Brady the Patriots have waited for in the last half decade.

• 189/255 Passing (74.1% Comp%, 1st in NFL) | 357/482 Passing Pace
• 2,285 Passing Yards | 4,316 Passing Yard Pace
• 17 Passing TDs | 32 Passing TD Pace
• 4 INTs | 8 INT Pace
• 116.9 Passer Rating | 116.33 Passer Rating Pace
• 59 Carries | 111 Carry Pace
• 270 Rushing Yards | 510 Rushing Yard Pace
• 2 Rushing TDs | 4 Rushing TD Pace
• 6 Fumbles | 11 Fumble Pace

Maye ranks 3rd in EPA/dropback, 1st in total EPA, and 1st in Completion Percentage Over Expected this season, showing that advanced stats favor him to win the MVP. He isn’t dinking and dunking his way to success, he is the best deep passer in the NFL this season.

Still there are some factors that hold him below Allen and Mahomes in the MVP odds.

Maye has also had some issues in the turnover department compared to the other NFL MVP candidates. While his INTs are even or close to the aforementioned Mahomes and Allen, Maye has put the ball on the field too often with 6 Fumbles. His 4 Fumbles Lost lead the NFL, a blemish on an otherwise outstanding statistical profile.

The Patriots Strength of Schedule has been (and will be for the rest of the season) the easiest in the NFL. The only 2 teams he has faced this season so far that could be playoff teams are the Steelers (who he lost to in Week 3) and the Bills (who he beat in Week 5). As good as his stats are, the lack of games against top competition can put an asterisk on his numbers if other QB MVP candidates are close statistically. With games against the Buccaneers, the Bills again, and the Ravens providing the biggest remaining challenges on the schedule, perhaps big performances in those games could move Maye to the top of the MVP odds.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Veteran Matthew Stafford has had a long career filled with strong stats, gritty tough clutch play, trying to overcome a lack of support around him early on, and eventually culminating in a Super Bowl win in 2021. The one thing missing in his career? A (non-Super Bowl) MVP. While bringing a Super Bowl to Los Angeles might be enough to cement Stafford as a Hall of Fame QB, an MVP award could truly solidify it and potentially start the conversation for first ballot.

The 37 year old passer is one of the last remnants of the era of pure pocket passers, the 3rd oldest starting QB in the NFL younger only to Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco. But despite his age, Stafford can still sling it with one of the strongest arms in the NFL.

• 184/274 Passing (67.2% Comp%) | 391/582 Passing Pace
• 2,174 Passing Yards | 4,620 Passing Yard Pace
• 21 Pass TDs | 45 Passing TD Pace
• 2 INTs | 4 INT Pace
• 113.2 Passer Rating | 114.05 Passer Rating Pace
• 21 Carries | 45 Carry Pace
• -6 Rushing Yards | -13 Rushing Yard Pace
• 0 Rushing TDs
• 5 Fumbles | 11 Fumbles

Stafford’s passing numbers are very strong, with 45 Passing TD pace tied for 9th (with 2024 Lamar Jackson) in Total TDs and tied for 8th (with 2011 Aaron Rodgers) in Passing TDs in a single season. Combine that with a very low 4 INT pace, and Stafford’s base stats have a good shot for MVP.

What is holding him back from higher MVP consideration is his EPA/Drop back is only tied 7th in the NFL and is tied 11th when under pressure. Stafford has had the benefit of a pair of elite Wide Receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to throw to, as well as a solid pass blocking line (ranked 4th in Pass Pro Win % per ESPN). The help that Stafford long sought for early on in his career might be holding him back from the top award in the NFL in an ironic twist of fate, not that Stafford is complaining. The veteran would much rather win games than win awards, and after the Rams close Divisional Round loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles, Stafford is prioritizing winning his 2nd ring over his first MVP.

What Does Taylor Need To Win MVP?

Each of these 4 QBs might not have historic level seasons of box score production, but they are all having strong seasons that have MVP cases. What can the Colts talented back do to stand out among this crowded MVP race?

• Taylor needs HISTORIC production.

If Jonathan Taylor can get to 30+ Total TDs, perhaps even breaking LaDainian Tomlinson’s record, that should be enough to win serious MVP votes. If he can’t get to that high of scoring and is in the mid 20s of TDs, he would need to get to over 2,000 Rushing Yards and potentially threaten the single season rushing Yard record. Taylor unfortunately is far from those yardage marks at this point and would need a monster 2nd half performance to catch up to Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 Rushing Yard record (average 151 Rushing Yards per game in the final 8 games of the season instead of his current 99.4 Rushing Yard per game), so the Touchdown record is much more attainable at this point.

Perhaps an increase in workload early on in games to get the Colts their leads rather than just later to maintain the lead and secure the win would strengthen this aspect of his MVP candidacy?

• Taylor needs to Lead the Colts to a Top Spot in the AFC

A big reason for Adrian Peterson’s most recent Running back MVP wasn’t just his impressive stats, it was because he carried a Vikings team without a good passer at QB to the playoffs. While Daniel Jones has been very efficient and is even 12th in MVP odds behind Taylor, there could still be a stigma among Associated Press voters regarding his prior play in New York. If Taylor can shoulder the load of being the best offensive player on the best offense in the NFL that gets the Colts to potentially as high as the 1 seed in the NFL, that storyline could compel some voters to his MVP case.

Barring Taylor achieving both of those factors, his MVP candidacy sadly might come down to how his competitors do in the 2nd half of the season. Peterson got his MVP during a down QB year in 2012, and unfortunately the adage of it being a QB award has more than a few kernels of truth to it. Even if he doesn’t win MVP, there is always the Offensive Player of the Year Award to add to Taylor’s trophy case.