The Portland Trail Blazers have one more game in their 2025 preseason schedule before the long, regular-season campaign begins. It’s almost time for Blazers Basketball once again!
Anticipating the advent of the new year, one Blazer’s Edge Reader has submitted this question to our perpetually-churning Mailbag. Here you go.
Dave,
Based on what you’ve seen during pre season so far how do you assess our chances? Are you seeing the difference we’re all hoping for?
Marcus
It’s a difficult question to answer.
You can’t tell as much from preseason as you think. It seems big because it’s the only stimulus we’ve had for six months, but it ends up being less consequential than the moment makes it. But we’ll try!
Credit the Blazers in that we’re seeing a difference. Center play is more integrated than in past seasons…understandable since they were going with basically no centers or rookie centers for the past few years. It looks like the defense is going to be more aggressive on the perimeter and the offensive pace is going to be quicker, at least in theory. You can definitely see the team buying into this new approach. That’s more unity and direction than we’re accustomed to at this point in the season.
I think if all cylinders fire optimally, the Blazers have a chance to be good. For these purposes, we’re grading on a curve. “Good” for Portland would be making the playoffs. They’re going to have to show a lot more–with consistency–before we even begin to talk about progress beyond that. But for those harboring a postseason dream, I’d say this is the first year in the last four in which we can say, “Well, it’s not impossible!”
Unfortunately, that assessment depends on all cylinders firing optimally for the Blazers and not for other teams across the conference and league. That’s the flaw in the plan. It’s certainly possible for this to happen. But if we posit a world in which all things go perfectly for all NBA teams–really the only way to run this experiment fairly–then Portland will still end up towards the bottom of the ledger.
Honestly, almost any team could say, “If everything goes perfectly, then…” Seldom do things go that way. 29 opponents, plus a host of external circumstances, conspire each season to make sure the year doesn’t go as planned. On average, everybody suffers. Often the teams weathering that suffering best end up advancing. It’s not whether you can be the best at your best, but whether you can be the best even when you’re at your worst.
Here the Blazers might have more problems. As far as I can tell, their three best hopes for improvement are Shaedon Sharpe becoming a true #1 scoring option, Jrue Holiday joining the backcourt, and Yang Hansen joining the team, period. Let’s dissect those for a second.
Sharpe’s development looks good so far. He’s still not hitting the three regularly, but his pull-up game has been enough to free up his drives. That’s loosened up his offense, making his attack look more potent, less predictable.
Let’s just assume Sharpe’s progress is real and sustainable. How many points does that amount to? He averaged 18.5 last season. Predicting 20 per game isn’t a reach. How about 22? Even that hefty increase puts Sharpe right around the level that Anfernee Simons reached during his peak years in Portland. Is that enough, in itself, to turn the tide? Maybe, but it’s not guaranteed.
Holiday looks to be a solid addition. He does so many things right on the floor. But he’s also 35 years old. He played 31 minutes per game over 62 appearances last season with the Boston Celtics. If necessary, could he hold up to that again? Probably, but again it’s not guaranteed. And Holiday may get pushed out for Portland’s other young hope, Scoot Henderson, out for the entire preseason with a hamstring injury.
Hansen is a rookie. Even if he has a fantastically promising season, his real impact isn’t likely to be felt until the second half of the year. That assumes that he’ll excel in the first place. Rookies usually don’t.
That’s not to downplay the potential contributions of any of these players, or Henderson. It’s to point out that Portland’s ceiling for improvement depends on a lot of things going right. If one or more of them goes wrong–a likely occurrence–the floor looms pretty far beneath. The Blazers might be a Holiday injury or a Sharpe slump away from losing in large swaths. They just can’t afford for things to go wrong.
This has been underlined in preseason by the relatively-poor performance of their deep bench. Kris Murray, Rayan Rupert, and Duop Reath have had good moments, but they’ve largely been dominated by opposing benches. Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams III haven’t even been able to play. Portland doesn’t have a ton of options if Plan A doesn’t work.
The distance between theoretical best performance and theoretical worst may be more balanced this season than we’ve seen over the past few. The Blazers start the year in the middle of that spectrum instead of near the bottom. But slipping back is going to be far easier than advancing forward. If anything, their preseason performances have underlined that. For that reason, I’d say keep hoping, but the team is going to have a long, uphill battle–against opponents, sure, but also against health, depth, and their own capacity for resilience–to translate their promise into actual victories.
Thanks for the question! You can send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
