I can safely say that I got the answer to the question I posed yesterday. Well, not exactly. The question I asked was: Is it possible for the team to hit rock bottom and still end up winning the game? If that’s possible, I suppose, remains an open question. The reality is, though the Cubs won Thursday’s thrilling game, it was not rock bottom. On Friday afternoon, the team sunk lower.
I mean, we can be fair and balanced about Friday’s loss. The Giants thought they would field a competitive team in
2026. They did not. But, the remnants of a team they thought would contend are largely in tact. It’s a team that just took back-to-back wins in Milwaukee, the class of the NL Central and one of the best teams in baseball. A loss? That can happen. On any given day, right? I mean, that’s kind of something that football talks about. But it’s the kind of thing that happens every single day in baseball. Probably on 90 percent or more of the days, if we scan all of the final scores, some team is beating some other team with a much better record. If I’m wrong on that number, it’s only because there are so many teams with middle of the road records. As a for instance, ignoring the Cub game, the Mets beat the Padres Friday.
Put simply, these things happen. So that is whatever. But 18-3? The 18 runs in one game is the second-most that any team has allowed this season in a game. The most? 19. Bonus points if you knew that the opponent was also the Giants. So the Giants are at least a team that has been explosive this year. But Wrigley Field isn’t Coors Field. Also, the Cubs aren’t supposed to be the Rockies. One of those teams won a playoff series last year, the other… well, most of us don’t readily remember the Rockies even being in a playoff series. I imagine most of us have a hazy memory about a Rockies team that reached the World Series. And we all remember the Cubs losing a very frustrating Wild Card game against them. More bonus points if you readily knew that was the last time the Rockies played in the postseason.
The Cubs drew a good number of walks against Giants starter Robbie Ray. But they only had two hits during the competitive portion of this game. They ended up with six hits and six walks. But that’s basically never going to work when you allow 19 hits. As per usual, the Cubs got pummeled in the middle innings of this game. It’s not usually 14-1 bad. But if you read John’s stat packs, you’ve seen recently that the Cubs more or less play the first three innings close to even and they win over the last three innings, on the strength of their massive run differential in the ninth inning. But the Cubs have been outscored more in the middle innings than they outscore opponents at the end of the game.
What does it tell us about a team that struggles consistently in the middle innings? Well, some combination of two factors is at play when you allow a lot of runs in the middle innings. Either A) your starters struggle as the lineup cycles to the third time through the order or B) your depth relievers aren’t good. In this instance, the eye test would say both. Ignoring Friday’s game, year to date, Cub starters allow an opponent OPS of .648 the first time through the order, .756 the second and .850 the third.
If the Cubs are going to regroup at this point and make a run, I’m pretty sure they are going to have to start looking for 18 batters out of the starter and getting into the pen. As much as hitting is down across baseball as a whole, Cub starting pitching just doesn’t give opponents anywhere near enough trouble. That kind of usage will likely torch an already suspect Cub bullpen. But then, that beleaguered bullpen is outperforming the starters.
The only good pieces of news about Friday’s game are that no matter how lopsided the game is, it only counts as a single loss. Additionally, no matter how bad you lose, it’s still scoreless the next day when the next game starts. This series can still be won.
The odds that this team is a seller and not a buyer next month are increasing by the day. It’s becoming hard to imagine this team rebounding with any authority. There is plenty of time. I just don’t believe this team knows what to do with it.
Three Positives:
- Seiya Suzuki had a single and drew three walks.
- Pedro Ramirez got into the game late and had a pair of singles in two plate appearances. He also scored a run.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong had a hit and a walk in three plate appearances.
Game 64, June 5: Giants 18, Cubs 3
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.037). 1-1, HR, 3 BB, RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Carson Kelly (.035). 2-4, RBI
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.016). 1-2, BB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Edward Cabrera (-.327). 3.2 IP, 20 BF, 8 H, BB, 8 ER, 6 K (L 3-3)
- Goat: Ian Happ (-.093). 0-2
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.051). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Willy Adames’ two-run homer with two outs in the first inning. (.180)
Giants Play of the Game: Carson Kelly singled leading off the bottom of the second, the Cubs down two at t he time. (.041)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 63 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 119 of 158 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +21
- Nico Hoerner/Michael Conforto +10
- Ben Brown/Kelly +9.5
- Ryan Rolison/Phil Maton/Jameson Taillon/Caleb Thielbar -8
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -26.5
Up Next: Game two of the three-game series. Ben Brown (2-2, 1.92) starts for the Cubs. Landen Roupp (5-6, 4.22) starts for the Giants.
