The Cubs already have the postseason tiebreaker over the Phillies and Padres for a potential Wild Card Series matchup.
They swept the Diamondbacks in Wrigley Field back in May, so will need to win only once to get the tiebreaker over Arizona for such a matchup. Of course, two or three wins here would be better.
For more on the Diamondbacks, here’s Jim McLennan, manager of our SB Nation D-backs site AZ Snakepit.
To start by answering the obvious question: nobody knows anything. Ketel Marte failed to
show up at Fenway for the opening game in Boston — not the first time he has gone AWOL. He was put on the restricted list initially, but is now on the IL with a bad knee (which, to be fair, had been an issue for a while). Exactly what was going on has been the subject of a LOT of speculation, people poring over every social media “like”. But that’s all it is: speculation. Everyone who does know has been very tight-lipped. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens – both when Marte is fit, and perhaps, during this off-season. He now has full no-trade rights: between that and this incident, if the team does want to trade him, it won’t be easy.
Meanwhile, the rest of the team is busy fighting Philadelphia and San Diego for a wild-card spot. The only thing consistent about the team is their lack of consistency. They’ll look great one series, then flat and lacklustre the next. Beat the Dodgers, and win the season set for the first time since 2018. Then lose a series to the Rockies, at home. Then beat the Braves on the road. Early on, it seemed Arizona could only beat teams with losing records. Now it seems they’re the ones which give them the most trouble. Arizona had to come from behind in the seventh inning on Sunday to scratch out the series win over the Reds.
With Marte out, while Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll are both well down on last year’s production, Gabriel Moreno has become the team’s MVP. He goes into Sunday’s game batting .307, with a 134 OPS+. But Nolan Arenado has also surpassed expectations, and is tied for the team lead with 21 HR. At the other end of the age spectrum, outfielder Jordan Lawlar recently returned from another IL stint, and if he can stay healthy, could provide an offensive boost down the stretch.
On the pitching front, the Cubs will see Brandon Pfaadt, who was on a real roll until meeting the Red Sox buzz-saw; Eduardo Rodriguez, the most consistent starter for Arizona; and Merrill Kelly, about whom, the less said the better. Since we last met, the D-backs have dumped original closer Paul Sewald, who is now with Toronto. It’s been a loose committee since, though Brandyn Garcia has seen most of the saves. The bullpen recently got previous closer Justin Martinez and his 102 mph fastball back after Tommy John, so he may become a high-leverage option as well.
Fun facts
The Cubs swept the Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field, May 1-3. The wins were the second through fourth of the Cubs’ first 10-game winning streak.
The Cubs have not won every game of a series at Arizona since July 5-7, 2010. Since then, they are 21-28 in the desert while winning five series, losing seven and splitting three, including last season. They won the first two games in 2018 and 2021 but lost the third. They lost three straight in 2012, 2014 and 2023.
In all games of the rivalry, the Cubs are 93-100. They have been shut out 17 times and blanked the Diamondbacks only six times, with just one of those on the road, a 4-0 win on Aug. 24, 2002. Tonight’s series opener will be the Cubs’ 74th game at Arizona since then.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Monday: Kevin Gausman, RHP (1-1, 6.19 ERA, 1.375 WHIP, 4.27 FIP in three starts with Cubs; 6-11, 4.58 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 3.58 FIP in 26 starts overall) vs. Merrill Kelly, RHP (8-11, 5.37 ERA, 1.519 WHIP, 5.79 FIP)
Tuesday: Clay Holmes, RHP (1-2, 2.81 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 4.21 FIP in three starts with Cubs; 5-6, 2.49 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 3.43 FIP in 12 starts overall) vs. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP (7-1, 3.39 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 3.99 FIP)
Wednesday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (8-2, 4.15 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 4.67 FIP) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (13-4, 2.61 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 3.78 FIP)
Times & TV channels
Monday: 8:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Tuesday: 8:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, also streaming on Peacock (outside the Cubs and Diamondbacks market territories)
Wednesday: 2:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Prediction
I keep picking two of three. One of these days it’s gotta happen. Right? So, two of three in Arizona.
Up next
The Cubs have Thursday off, then return to Wrigley Field to host the Cincinnati Reds in a three-game series beginning Friday afternoon.
