Late last night, while you were sleeping, Edmundo Sosa did it again.
Sosa didn’t start last night’s thrilling 5-3, come-from-behind win over the Angels in Anaheim last night, but he sure did finish it. Brought up to the plate as a pinch hitter for Brandon Marsh in the top of the 9th, Sosa slammed a two-out grand slam off left-handed reliever Sammy Peralta over the left center field wall.
The blast delivered the Phillies a shocking and much-needed victory for the Phils, who moved to within one game
of the Chicago Cubs for the NL’s top wild card spot.
It’s the latest monster run-producing hit for Sosa in the month of August, helping boost what had been an abnormally down year for him at the plate. Overall, Sosa’s .235/.275/.388 slash line and .663 OPS are below his career average .255/.306/.412, .717 OPS.
In five of his last seven games dating back to August 10, Sosa has recorded multiple RBIs. And generally speaking, those run-producing hits have been impactful, such as his key 3-run double in the Phils’ incredible 9th inning comeback against the Cardinals last Sunday.
When Sosa came to the plate last night, the Phillies’ odds of winning were 14%. Following his grand slam, they jumped up to 92%, and increase in Wins Probability Added (WPA) of 78%. His bases loaded double last Sunday against St. Louis bumped their WPA from 10% to 42%, a jump of 32%.
It’s one of the reasons why Sosa has the fourth-most WPA on the Phillies, despite his part-time role.
- Kyle Schwarber: 2.8 (578 PAs)
- Bryson Stott: 1.5 (506 PAs)
- Bryce Harper: 1.4 (576 PAs)
- Edmundo Sosa: 1.3 (214 PAs)
- Derek Hill: 1.2 (96 PAs)
Each percentage of Wins Probability Added, up or down, amounts to 0.1 WPA, so a jump of 78% in win probability is worth 0.78 WPA. So a big moment like last night obviously has a dramatic effect in a positive way.
Conversely, a player who routinely fails to come through in high leverage situations lowers their team’s win probability, negatively affecting their WPA. The worst WPA on the Phillies probably won’t surprise you.
- Trea Turner: -2.6 (579 PAs)
- Rafael Marchan: -1.6 (92 PAs)
- Adolis Garcia: -0.9 (259 PAs)
- Brandon Marsh: -0.7 (502 PAs)
- Garrett Stubbs: -0.6 (52 PAs)
Sosa has a 1.392 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position, and in “high leverage” situations, his OPS is .923. It is .583 in medium leverage and .604 in low leverage situations.
His fellow bench running buddy Derek Hill has also been quite adept in coming through in the clutch, with an .832 OPS in late and close situations and an .893 OPS in high leverage spots. You may remember some of them.
In case you’re wondering, yes, the Phillies have had an inordinate number of down-and-not-out, 9th inning comeback dingers this year. Sosa’s slam was their fourth go-ahead home run with two outs in the 9th inning, tied for 2nd-most by any team in a season since 1901. Only the 2022 Gints had more (5), and no team in baseball has hit three. The other NL East teams have hit two combined.
Prior to Sosa’s heroics were some excellent at-bats by a team that continues to show improved discipline at the plate. Alec Bohm was hit by a pitch with one out. Justin Crawford worked a terrific at-bat and drew a walk.
It felt like the fates were against the Phils when Bryson Stott was robbed of a three-run home by Wade Meckler for the 2nd out.
But then J.T. Realmuto drew a five-pitch walk to load the bases before Sosa went deep.
A hit-by-pitch and two walks. Ducks on the pond.
All of it leading up to yet another 9th inning home run by a Phils bench player in an August of fun that no one wants to see end.
