This has been one of the more remarkable stretches in Cub history. Though I often try to put things into the bigger picture context here, I’ll let John and Al write about the historically significant winning streaks and periods in Cub history. Obviously, a team that has 150 years of existence has so much history that it’s hard to find too many firsts, other than when they relate to ways in which the game has evolved through the years. But clearly, a five-game winning streak isn’t even the longest
this year. 15 of 18 doesn’t hold a candle to a streak of 21 straight wins the team had nearly a century ago and even 11 straight home wins happened less than 20 years ago.
This is a different kind of remarkable. This one is different because in this modern era of sports, we see so much information under the hood. We see the numbers, the projections, the history, the injuries. Win total projections aren’t the stuff of throwing at a dart board. We know that this isn’t the best Cub team in our lifetime. Again with the history, even the 104.8 win pace this team is on through 34 games wouldn’t lead to any records. The Cubs have two 104 win seasons (in 154 and 155 game seasons) and 107 and 116 win seasons (in 155 games each). But all four of those teams were over 100 years ago. The Cubs were really good from 1906-1010. The 2016 Cubs won 103.
This team isn’t as good or better than that team. We know that. We also know that even over 10 years, comparisons have some amount of apples to oranges. The simplest math is that this team doesn’t have to be better than the 2016 Cubs or any of the championship teams that have occurred between then and now. This team, ultimately, needs to be better than 14 other National League teams by the end of the NLCS and, should they accomplish that, one American League team. I’m enough pro-Cub that some might identify me a bit of a homer. There’s probably at least some truth in that. Though I will turn on this team in years where they start taking on water. I say that, because even as someone who might be a little biased, not in my wildest dream did I think I’d be even entertaining a conversation about a championship team.
That’s the thing, right? First of all, we are all in a long-term, abusive relationship with the Cubs. We have decades of experience saying that all good things must come to an end. The inertia of that is so true that it crushed a 2003 team that looked poised to reach the Series. Several other very good incarnations of the Cubs didn’t even get as close as that team, including multiple times since 2016. If you’re listening to the Lovable Reunion Podcast, one of their (very deep) observations is that winning championships is hard. That ‘16 team was the best Cub team any of us have seen, I think. The only one to win it all in any of our lifetimes. And even that team had scares in every round of the postseason. There was no round where they just walked over an opponent.
You have to be very good and you have to catch a few breaks. So that’s the second thing. The best team doesn’t necessarily win every year, right? I mean, probably arguably the Dodgers were the last two years. I think they were probably the consensus best team in 2024. That consensus might have been slightly less in 2025, at least in part because they do some amount of coasting up until the playoffs start. But were they at least a little arguably the best team in 2023 when they didn’t win?
Can you honestly say that this team can’t win? That’s the oddity of this. Take those last two paragraphs together. Are we afraid of the rug being pulled out from under us and this team crashing back down to the Earth in spectacular fashion? Yeah, we’re conditioned to. How many times in our lifetime did a team that wasn’t the best team, but rather a good team that got hot at the right time, went on to win it all? Some of you are much better historians of the wider MLB than I. But off the top of my head, I remember a Cardinals team that barely got in. I also remember a White Sox team that absolutely steamrolled the playoffs but I don’t remember many outside of Chicago crowing before the postseason started.
Why not us? I’m trying to both stay realistic and enjoy this ride. I encourage you to do so as well. We know what this team was supposed to be capable of. For whatever reason, despite a large number of early injuries, this team has been red hot for three weeks now. The hitting, the running, the fielding and the pitching. They are all carrying weight. Not necessarily every single day. But on any given day two or three areas of this team are carrying the team and carrying it to victory much more often than not, so far. This is so much fun.
Three Positives:
- Moisés Ballesteros surely needed this game more than any of us. But as fans, I saw some starting to wonder if the league had caught up to him. Two hits, one a long homer. Two runs driven in, two runs scored. He added a walk for good measure. His wRC+ sits at 171 and his OPS at .978. Just a reminder some of the best players of all time never had a full season OPS over 1.000.
- Michael Busch needed this whole weekend. Things had been pretty rough until this weekend, but he’s had a big few days. On Sunday, he had a double, a triple, drove in four runs and scored a fifth. He too drew a walk and he also had a sacrifice fly. That’s a lot of productive plate appearances.
- The Cubs offense as a whole posted a wRC+ of 184 for this game. So there were so many guys who could land here. But I’ll give the nod to Matthew Boyd. A nice bounceback game allowing two runs over six for another quality Cub start.
Game 34, May 3: Cubs 8, Diamondbacks 4 (22-12)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Moisés Ballesteros (.251). 2-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Michael Busch (.192). 2-3, 3B, 2B, BB, SF, 4 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Matthew Boyd (.089). 6 IP, 22 BF, 4 H, BB, 2 ER, 5 K (W 2-1)
(What can MB do for you? I’m going to guess this is the first time we’ve ever had a podium that all shared the same initials)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.076). 0-3, BB
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.049). 2-5, 2B, R
- Kid: Alex Bregman (-.028). 0-4, BB, R, DP
WPA Play of the Game: Moisés Ballesteros batted with a runner on first and no outs in the third, the Cubs down one. He homered, giving the Cubs the lead. (.197)
*Diamondbacks Play of the Game: Gabriel Moreno batted with a runner on second and two outs in the second, the game scoreless. He hit a two-run homer to start the scoring. (.192)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll: Ballesteros, Busch, Boyd, Hoerner (other)
Game 33 Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 142 of 212 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Nico Hoerner +9.5
- Michael Conforto/Shōta Imanaga +7
- Pete Crow-Armstrong -8
- Matt Shaw -9
- Seiya Suzuki -12
Current Win Pace: 104.8
Up Next: The second place Cincinnati Reds (20-14) come to town to start a four game series on Monday night. The Reds got swept by the Pirates over the weekend. They’ve started a stretch of 13 straight games by dropping four of six. They’ve lost six of 10 overall, and their expected win-loss is only 15-19 due to their negative run differential. They have been unbeatable in close games, but pretty average otherwise. They are 10-6 away from home, but just 1-5 against teams over .500 (the Cubs are 4-5).
Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.06, 35.1 IP) makes his seventh start of the year for the Cubs. Last time out, he was the winner, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings of work. Glass half empty/glass half full. Cabrera has allowed exactly three earned runs in each of his last four starts. But he’s not allowed more than that in any start. He did have a start against the Reds last April when he allowed three runs over five innings, but so many things are different now.
It looks like Chase Petty will start for the Reds. Petty worked briefly for the Reds last year (0-3, 19.50, 6 IP, 3 G, 2 GS). He is a former 26th overall pick of the Twins in the 2021 draft. This spot in the rotation had belonged to Brandon Williamson, who has gone to the injured list. Petty is 2-2 with a 4.38 in six starts for Triple-A Louisville in the Reds organization.
This feels like an opportunity to keep the good time rolling. Win number six for an even dozen straight at home!
Go Cubs.
