It’s the Buffalo Bills bye week, and we have been complaining about some crappy play over the last two weeks. It’s time for a much brighter topic and one sure to get y’all going over the weekend. Let’s
have the Jim Kelly and Josh Allen conversation.
Has Josh Allen passed Jim Kelly as the best Bills QB of all-time?
You might think this is crazy. Josh Allen isn’t even 30 yet. He has played 117 games to Kelly’s 160. How is this even a conversation Matt!?
Well, I was going through Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor this week for some background on Joe Flacco (probably not a HOFer, by the way), and noticed that Josh Allen was the player directly in front of Jim Kelly. Allen’s HOF bona fides are better than Kelly’s, at least according to this metric.
Is Josh Allen a Hall of Fame quarterback right now?
It should be noted that PFR does not think Allen is a Hall of Famer if he retired today and still has more work to do. In fact, Kelly is the lowest-ranked Hall of Fame QB in the Super Bowl era according to their metric.
The Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor is a metric designed to estimate a player’s chances of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame using AV, Pro Bowls, All-Pros, championships, and various stat milestones.
It is noteworthy that MVPs aren’t listed on there.
The case for Josh Allen over Jim Kelly
Josh Allen does outpace Jim Kelly in several statistics worth discussing. Allen’s 63.5% completion percentage dwarfs Kelly’s 60.1% as they played in different eras. Allen has the team’s franchise record for total touchdowns at 276, well ahead of Kelly’s 244. Wins aren’t exactly a QB stat, but Allen’s winning percentage is 69% compared to Kelly’s 63%.
In the playoffs, Allen also beat Kelly in completion percentage (66% to 59%), passing touchdowns (25 to 21), interceptions (4 to 28), and QB rating (101.7 to 72.3). Yeah, Kelly threw more playoff interceptions than touchdown passes.
Kelly never won an MVP where Allen has one.
The case for Jim Kelly over Josh Allen
The majority of the stats still favor Kelly over Allen. He has more wins and playoff wins. He has more passing yards in the regular season and playoffs. Kelly has more regular-season passing touchdowns than Allen.
In league awards, Kelly has a first-team All-Pro on his resume and that has eluded Allen. Kelly has more Pro Bowls (5 to 4).
Obviously, Kelly has four AFC Championship rings while Allen has zero.
Verdict: Jim Kelly is the best Bills QB of all-time, but probably not for long
Here is my take and I definitely want to hear from you in the comments below. I think Jim Kelly is the best Bills quarterback of all-time as of today. If the Bills make the Super Bowl in 2025, Allen takes the top spot. They don’t even have to win it for this debate.
I also think it’s pretty likely that by the end of the 2025 season, it will be neck and neck anyway. If Allen keeps playing at Pro Bowl level as I expect, he’s going to pass or come close to Kelly in all the major numbers by the end of the 2026 season including wins, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. When you add the rushing stats, Allen will be ahead in overall yards, too.
And Allen will have done all that in one season less than Kelly. That doesn’t even mention that Kelly got to cut his teeth in the USFL where Allen took his lumps in the NFL.
So it’s still Kelly, but Allen will have closed the gap by the end of the 2026 season.
The Josh Allen Hall of Fame conversation
Let’s revisit this now that we have that debate settled. Allen is behind Steve McNair, Rich Gannon, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes on the PFR Hall of Fame monitor. He will need to keep accumulating stats to get there.
Warren Moon is the only Hall of Famer with zero all-pro teams and zero championships. Philip Rivers is likely to join him in that bittersweet club. Allen also has zero Super Bowls and zero first-team All-Pros, but it’s not like you can’t get to the Hall of Fame without one or the other.
Cam Newton has 75 rushing touchdowns, the most ever by a QB. Allen has 68 and is rapidly closing the gap to that record. No one thinks Newton is going to make the HOF.
Tom Brady holds the NFL record for total regular season touchdowns with 677. At 276 right now, Allen has a long way to go to get there. He’s averaging 40 touchdowns per 17-game season, so he only needs roughly 10 more seasons playing at the same level to get there at age 39. That would definitely do it, as you could guess.
Let us know what you think about the season in the comments or write your first FEED post. Head to the comments to share your thoughts. Sign up for your own account here to leave a comment.
Welcome to the weekend, Buffalo Bills fans. After a long week, it’s time to blow off a little steam. Use this thread to talk about… well, whatever it is you’d like to talk about. Maybe you’d like to share a cool story from your week.
