Just hours away from Day One of the MLB Draft, and I’ve got some bats to keep in mind at picks 19 and 59.
ROUND ONE: 19th Pick
JUSTIN LEBRON | SS | R/R | ALABAMA | 21
Lebron to Cleveland may be happening sooner than anyone realizes! Justin Lebron is a ball of clay to mold, and although my worries within the actual organization to develop bats for the bigs loom large here, Lebron fits here like a glove. A shortstop who can stick at shortstop, Lebron has great build for the position at 6’2” and just shy of 200 pounds, he has a strong arm, good instincts, and true
double-plus speed, but he’s incredibly raw defensively. His movements aren’t decisive nor direct.
At the plate, Lebron is even more of a raw product. The power potential is legit as his hands are among the quickest in the draft, but he struggled getting to his power with any consistency this season. When Lebron is able to lift the ball, he gets to his pull-side strongly which is really impressive considering just how much he swings. Lebron ran a 10.2% walk rate, but in SEC play, that dwindled down to just 6.2%.
IF CLEVELAND DRAFTED LEBRON, I WOULD FEEL: UNINSPIRED
Laying off breakers, especially against better competition was a real problem. Lebron’s 20.9% in-zone whiff rate is more than enough to scare me off of here at 19, and I don’t think he’s as far along defensively as many have graded him out to be. This would be a significant project for a college bat.
CHRIS HACOPIAN | IF | R/R | TEXAS A&M | 21
Hacopian is my dream bat at 19 for this draft. As to whether he’ll be there or not is another discussion. Among the very best bat to ball ability in this draft, Hacopian’s hitting stats are exceptional. Just from a pure slash line, he went from Maryland to Texas A&M and the SEC and still put up a .319/.404/.560 slash in conference play while walking as much as he struck out. Hacopian combined that with an in-zone whiff below 8% and overall whiff rate under 15%. He was also doing all of this with an injury that he played through.
Hacopian has incredibly smooth, quick hips getting through his swing, and his barrel stays in the zone for a long time. He can be a bit passive at times, and I’d like to see him take a level up in selectiveness and lift the ball more. Being passive then hitting ground balls isn’t exactly the most enticing combination.
IF CLEVELAND DRAFTED HACOPIAN, I WOULD FEEL: THRILLED
The only real down side to his profile is the bat has to carry it. Hacopian is not the shortstop he showed at Maryland and likely profiles more 2B/3B, possibly cOF. He’s probably already maxed out his frame and isn’t particularly fast. It’s not totally all bat, but it’s certainly bat first, but it’s a damn good bat to lead the charge.
COLE PROSEK | C/IF | MAGNOLIA HEIGHTS H.S. (MS) | 19
The Prosek/Guardians talks have come on late into the draft cycle, but they are very much there now. Prosek’s body of work largely indicated an infielder, but he’s caught quite a bit this year, and many believe that’s the route he goes professionally. Prosek is 6’1” pushing 200 pounds right now. It’s contact over power, but power could definitely be on the way. He has a smooth, compact operation from the left side, and all he’s done is crush the showcase circuit.
IF CLEVELAND DRAFTED PROSEK, I WOULD FEEL: INTRIGUED
A late bloomer of a catcher with good words about his ability behind the plate is certainly interesting.
AJ GRACIA | OF | L/L | VIRGINIA | 21
Six months ago, AJ Gracia would have been the top name here while Cleveland would not have had a realistic shot at him. Times have changed a bit, and now Gracia is a possibility at 19, and while the likelihood of him being available here has grown, my enthusiasm for the pick has dwindled a bit.
Gracia saw all his major power indicators that were borderline plus at Duke as a freshman take a step back at UVA. Gracia did deal with some injuries which is why I still both have him here and would still like this pick quite a bit, but the raw power output has taken him from plus hit, plus power down to above average power. Gracia handles all pitch types well and finds the barrel with elite consistency with elite ability to launch.
Defensively, Gracia will find himself in a corner in the OF as his fringe average speed and arm will immediately keep him out of centerfield.
IF CLEVELAND DRAFTED GRACIA, I WOULD FEEL: HAPPY
Gracia is still my ideal bat at 19, as I stated in the pitcher manifesto. Yes, he’s a lefty, but there isn’t a bat in the system outside of Ralphy Velazquez with this blend of hit tool and pop from either side.
ROUND TWO: 59th Pick
CHRIS REMBERT | 2B | R/R | AUBURN | 21
Rembert just hits. A draft-eligible sophomore, Rembert will have just turned 21 prior to the Draft. Rembert is very aggressive at the plate, attacking with a level swing looking to spray line drives across the field. The catch here is that Rembert also possesses quality bat speed. He operates from a closed stance, letting him quickly get his bat through the zone. He lets the ball travel and then looks to shoot it based on location.
Rembert doesn’t have much physical development left, and he strongly projects as a second baseman with a strong enough arm who constantly positions himself well. The hope with Rembert here is that a tweak to the bat path is viable enough to where he isn’t complete, wholesale changing his approach and can tap into his high-end power potential. Rembert ran a 94th percentile EV90 this season at Auburn.
This is where Cleveland has excelled in adjustments with their prospects. Taking flatter bat paths and finding some launch point adjustments. See: Cooper Ingle, Luke Hill, Ralphy Velazquez. Rembert has such strong bat to ball skills that having him fall to CLE at 59 would be ideal.
CADEN FERRARO | OF | L/R | TEXAS TECH | 21
Looking for a pure bat first, ask questions about defense later player in this draft? Look no further than Caden Ferraro. There’s a lot of pressure to be put on Ferraro’s bat within his profile, but in his transfer season at Tech, he handled that quite well. Ferraro walked more than he struck out with top 1% exit velos, EV90, and xwOBA. He was also money in the zone, running a sub-10% in-zone whiff rate. Ferraro’s open stance lets him glide into a balanced position at his swing point, and a more level swing than expected given his power output generates fierce back spin.
What keeps Ferraro possible here is that he already projects to be a DH. It’s maybe a fringe average arm, but his ability and speed even in a corner leave a lot to be desired. It’s pure bat-first, but at least it’s a pretty good bat.
MARTIN SHELAR | OF | MARIST H.S. (GA) | 18
Traits, traits, traits. A later bloomer into his prep helium, Martin Shelar shot out of a rocket at the Draft Combine, doling out huge, 110+ exit velocities and mammoth home runs. Shelar is an outfield prospect out of Georgia, and he is led by a steep swing that generates tons of power. Shelar works with a double toe tap, something that probably has to get reworked to get into his swing at the pro level largely for balance, but his hands are freakishly fast with bat speed to match. Shelar projects to be a corner outfielder who has above average speed, and he combines that with a frame that he’s already begun growing into.
