We’ve reached the point where we are forming predictions for the 2025–26 Phoenix Suns. Every move, from the draft to trades to free agency, has shaped what we believe this team can become.
And let’s be clear: this is a developmental season. The roster has been infused with youth, the front office reshaped, and the direction reset. It’s a team built around one All-Star, a second guard brimming with athletic upside, and the promise of a defensive identity that could change everything for the franchise.
But this won’t be instant gratification. This is a process. It will take time. Losses will stack up, and they will sting, but that’s part of the journey. No one should expect anything different.
What really grabs my attention right now is how many people believe this team is destined for a 20–62 season. Or worse. I see it in the Bright Side comments, I hear it during Suns JAM Session live feeds, and my DMs are full of people convinced this is rock-bottom basketball.
Maybe, months from now, you’ll get to pull this article back up and hit me with an “I told you so.” But I can’t get there. I don’t see a reality where the Phoenix Suns finish with 20 wins or fewer.
Why? Because being that bad takes work. It’s not as simple as being young, hiring a new head coach, and trying to find your identity. Winning fewer than 20 games has only happened twice in franchise history: the inaugural season in 1968–69 and, half a century later, the infamous 2018–19 campaign.
And that 2018–19 team? That was a special kind of disaster. They ranked 28th in offensive rating, 29th in defensive rating, and finished with a net rating of -9.2, second-worst in the league. They were painfully young, directionless, and full of lottery picks who hadn’t figured it out…or never would. They didn’t just lose games; they never looked like they knew how to win them.
For all the challenges this team is going to face next season, I just don’t see them bottoming out like that. Sure, the offense will likely take a step back. That’s what happens when you lose Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal and the shot-making gravity they bring. But defensively? They should be better than the 27th-ranked unit we saw a season ago.
Look at NBA history since 1960: only 100 teams have finished with 20 or fewer wins. That’s over 65 seasons and barely one and a half teams per year. You think the Suns are going to be one of them?
News flash: they’ll play two games against every team in the Eastern Conference. Even if they go .500 against a weaker East, that’s already 15 wins. It’s simply hard to be that bad unless you’re trying.
Last year, three teams failed to hit 20 wins: the Hornets, Wizards, and Jazz. None of those teams had an All-Star anywhere near Devin Booker’s level. And while the Suns might look like chaos waiting to happen if things go sideways, they’re still in the process of forging an identity. One rooted in defense, in making teams uncomfortable, in forcing them to work for every bucket. That matters. That wins you games.
Charlotte didn’t have an identity last year. Neither did Washington. Utah’s identity was openly tanking to get Cooper Flagg. The Suns won’t be tanking this season. They can’t. They don’t own their pick, so losing on purpose is worthless. To finish with 20 or fewer wins, you practically have to be trying to lose. And this team? They won’t be.
So yes, this team could end up worse than we expect, and honestly, expectations are already pretty low. But they’re not going to be so historically awful that they lose over 62 games. That’s not just bad basketball. That’s a monumental collapse.
When a team is building its identity on toughness, hustle, and effort on the defensive end, it’s really hard to lose that many games. I get why people are frustrated and don’t fully buy into the vision right now. But to say this team is only winning 20 games? That’s missing the context of just how rare and difficult that level of losing actually is.
Maybe it’s just a knee-jerk reaction. Maybe some people really believe it. Time will tell who’s right. But right now? I think that prediction is way off base. Because pulling off that much losing is a lot harder than people think.
