This is the fourth and final meeting between these two flawed-but-feisty Western Conference also-rans. Dallas won Game 3 of the season series just two days ago in a 144–122 blowout behind Klay Thompson’s 26 points and an unexpected 3-point deluge. Utah leads the season series 2–1, but both wins came at home — one in overtime, one in a 116–114 squeaker.
Both teams are missing key frontcourt pieces, but Dallas is especially decimated. Dereck Lively and AD are out. Gafford and Flagg are both doubtful.
And Kyrie still hasn’t returned from knee surgery. That leaves the Mavs trying to scrape together a frontcourt from Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and a prayer that Max Christie has gotten over the recent illness.
The Jazz, for their part, are now missing Markkanen, Kessler, and Niang — leaving Brice Sensabaugh and Keyonte George to carry much of the load.
🏀 Fixture, Odds and Injuries
Utah Jazz (14–27, 5–15 Away) @ Dallas Mavericks (16–26, 12–11 Home)
📍 American Airlines Center — Dallas, TX
🕓 4:10 PM CST, Jan 17
📺 KFAA-TV / NBA App
📊 DraftKings Odds (as of 8:00 AM CST)
UTA +3.5 (−110) | o241.5 (−112) | ML +136
DAL −3.5 (−110) | u241.5 (−108) | ML −162
🩻 Injury Report Highlights
Mavericks:
Cooper Flagg (ankle) — Doubtful
Daniel Gafford (ankle) — Doubtful
Dereck Lively II — Out (foot surgery)
Kyrie Irving — Out (knee)
Anthony Davis — Out (hand)
P.J. Washington — Probable
Max Christie — Probable
Jazz:
Lauri Markkanen — Out
Walker Kessler — Out
Georges Niang — Out
Side and Total Leans
Despite a thinned-out roster, Dallas is laying -3.5 at home. That reflects recent form (including Monday’s 22-point win) and ESPN’s matchup predictor, which gives the Mavericks a 70.7% win probability. But that number is inflated by names who are either out or doubtful tonight.
Over/Under at 241.5 still feels steep given how many primary options are out — particularly with Cooper Flagg (18.8 PPG, 47.8 FG%) listed as doubtful. Without his scoring and tempo, the Mavs may struggle to keep pace with their own previous explosion. The only caveat would be another outburst of a showcase vibe from Klay Thompson.
🧠 Lean: Jazz +3.5
🧠 Lean: Under 241.5
If Flagg and Gafford both sit, and Dallas can’t get out in transition, expect a grindier version of Wednesday’s track meet. If you were of the mind that the Jazz would refuse to win this game under any circumstances, taking Dallas is defensible. At this point, both teams are slowly morphing into the final tank-y form. It is just tough to see the Mavericks winning again, given the tumbleweeds rolling through the lineup.
Player Props
Naji Marshall o18.5 Points (−106)
Marshall has been one of Dallas’ steadiest contributors during the injury purge — scoring 22 or better in his last three efforts. With Cooper Flagg likely out again and PJ Washington managing an ankle, Marshall’s mid-post game and slashing lanes remain live against a Jazz team that is not in try-hard mode on defense. There’s room here for a clean 7-of-13 with free throws on top.
Brice Sensabaugh o18.5 Points (−106)
With Lauri Markkanen out again, Sensabaugh has taken the scoring reins for Utah — notching 27 points Thursday on a hyper-efficient 10-of-15 from the floor. He’s hit 26+ in three of his last four, and even with Max Christie returning for Dallas, the matchup remains juicy. Christie is expected to take on primary wing defense responsibilities but is just returning from illness, and may not have full lateral burst or game legs yet. Sensabaugh’s blend of strength and footwork could still carve up this thinned Mavs perimeter.
