UFC Shanghai is in the books, and it’s a rare off week for the UFC. You know what that means? This week’s mailbag gets to cover all sorts of ground.
So with almost zero ado, let’s jump into a wide variety of topics, including the upcoming Paramount deal, Aljamain Sterling, Fluffy Hernandez, and more.
“It’s 2027. The UFC has now been Paramount’d for a year, plus. What do you predict as the biggest change to the UFC from a viewer perspective?”
I don’t even have to predict this one; it’s already been stated.
The fact that the UFC will no longer hold Pay-Per-View events once the change to Paramount comes is massive. Honestly, hard to overstate. In 2024, there were 14 UFC PPV events, meaning if you bought them all, you spent $1100+ dollars. In 2026, all of that goes away. Instead, you’re just paying the Paramount+ price, which is essentially the same as the ESPN+ subscription price a UFC fan has to pay these days already. That is an enormous benefit to the fan base.
Now, if you’re talking about production stuff, my guess is not too much changes. While the UFC has historically had some shifts in production as they’ve moved among distributors, it normally isn’t a huge change, and the UFC is largely left to its own devices as far as aesthetics go.
The only other major thing I can foresee happening over the next few years is a change in the quality of events. While this has been happening broadly over the past few years, the structure of the Paramount deal raises some questions for me about how things will look. We all know that APEX events are mostly low-budget events put on to fulfill contractual obligations, with minimal promotional effort put behind them. And while this move to Paramount could change that, with less of an obligation for a specific number of events, that doesn’t seem to be what’s happening. Instead, Dana White is talking about doubling the Contender Series, which means more cheap labor to fill more roster spots.
My best guess is that, without even the illusion of needing to stack PPVs to increase buys, numbered UFC events get a little more watered down. This probably won’t happen in 2026, because you always want to make a good first impression. But as the deal goes on, it’s the natural endpoint. After all, with a deal like this, the only way for the UFC to increase revenue over the next 7 years is to lower costs. And the way to do that is cheaper labor.
“What is next for Aljamain Sterling and Brian Ortega following their uninspiring fight this past weekend?“
For Ortega, it’s 155 or else, somewhere not in the UFC. My best guess is the UFC doesn’t cut him, but Ortega makes a good amount of money, and he’s become entirely unreliable. That’s not a great combo for long-term UFC employment at this stage. He appears to be well-liked, so maybe he gets one more chance, but it would not shock me if Ortega was released following this fiasco.
As for Sterling, he’s doing fine. I won’t pretend Saturday was the most fun fight I’ve ever watched, but Aljo was dominant, and it does take two to tango. Given the circumstances, kind of reasonable that Sterling didn’t put on a barnburner. And most importantly, he got a win over a Top 5 guy, setting himself up in the title picture. Now, could he have done better? Absolutely. I’m of the belief that if Sterling had gone out there and demolished Ortega, he might have jumped to the head of the line for Alexander Volkanovski challengers, but alas, he did not. Still, Sterling set himself up well to either serve as the backup fighter for the presumptive Volk vs. Lerone Murphy title fight in December, and if not that, he’s probably getting a title eliminator next, either against Yair Rodriguez or the winner of Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva.
“How come we have not talked about Anthony Hernandez vs Reinier de Ridder, and the middleweight tournament that is unfolding?”
Umm, we have? Also, it’s not a tournament. A tournament implies the winner of Fluffy vs. RDR will take on the winner of Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho. That’s not happening. Dana White said — and this is one of those times where he’s probably telling the truth — that whoever impresses the most gets the first crack at Khamzat Chimaev. That’s not a tournament, it’s a showcase showdown.
But yeah, this rules. While my fanboy love of RDR — I’m literally the person who first got him ranked in the MMA Fighting Rankings — makes me want him to fight Chimaev right away, I have to admit that the Fluffy fight is both sensible matchmaking and an awesome fight. And the Imavov-Borralho fight also rips, and we’re going to spend all of next week focused on it. In the end, we’re getting a pair of great fights, and while whoever comes out of this as the next title challenger is sure to be a big underdog to Chimaev, I, personally, will be fascinated to see them challenge the new champ.
“Is it worse to be quickly knocked out, or to be fluffied? Looking at what he did to Roman and Michel… Not sure you can come back from that.”
Speaking of Fluffy. Yeah, getting knocked out is way worse for you in like, a health and safety standpoint. But getting Fluffied is substantially worse for fighters from a mentality standpoint. Anyone can get caught, and you can always tell yourself that things might go differently next time. But Roman Dolidze didn’t get caught by a punch. He got caught in an ass-whooping, and that’s hard to tell yourself a story about.
Almost every fighter I’ve ever spoken to has this (often irrational) belief that they are the best in the world, and it’s critical to how they’re able to compete. If you get Fluffied, even the most irrationally confident person is going to second-guess themselves, and that can be the end of their fighting career.
“What does Tom Aspinall have to do to breathe life back into the HW division? If (when) he starches Ciryl Gane, is that a good or a bad thing? Does his star power rise, or would seeing a war and setting up a rivalry be better? Or has Jonny Duck ruined HW for everyone and there’s no coming back?”
First off, as much as I dislike the entire Jon Jones heavyweight saga “reign”, I would never claim he ruined heavyweight. Heavyweight has been dying a slow death for a while and the culprit is primarily the UFC.
In broad strokes, heavyweight is bad because there aren’t many good athletes at heavyweight, and there aren’t many good athletes at heavyweight because if you’re big and athletic, you can make a lot more money doing other sports (with less direct head trauma, usually). Fighting is a sport, and sports are economics. If the UFC started handing out $100 million contracts, A LOT more big dudes are going to go to a gym and see if they can fistfight at all. Instead, MMA gets the absolute dregs of the athletic pile, meaning it’s mostly just not very good.
As for how Tom can save heavyweight, he simply needs to reign. Yes, a true rivalry with someone would help, because rivalries always lift up the sport, but think back to heavyweight before the Jones reign. That was dominated by three years of Daniel Cormier vs. Stipe Miocic, and did people think heavyweight was in a great spot then? No. The best thing Aspinall can do is simply hold the belt for a long time and continue to be impressive. Given enough time, that will at least keep people invested in the top of the weight class, even as the rest of it continues to flounder.
Thanks for reading and thanks to everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer all the good ones! It doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.
