Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight standouts Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott will square off TONIGHT (Sat., April 18, 2026) inside Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, for UFC Winnipeg.
Burns, a former 170-pound title challenger, finds himself in that difficult position where he’s on an unprecedented losing streak against only outstanding opposition. He may have lost four in a row, but the lowest-ranked fighter on that list is No. 6-seeded Sean Brady. Does that mean he’s hapless
nowadays or will a minor step back in competition return the Brazilian veteran to the win column?
Malott will help us find out.
The fast-rising Canadian has won six of seven since joining UFC’s roster in 2022, making his way into the Top 15, while scoring some impressive finishes along the way. This is a big step up for “Proper” Mike, who’s aiming for a statement victory in front of a home-type crowd.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Burns vs. Malott Betting Odds
- Gilbert Burns victory: +225
- Gilbert Burns via TKO/KO/DQ: +850
- Gilbert Burns via submission: +650
- Gilbert Burns via decision: +800
- Mike Malott victory: -300
- Mike Malott via TKO/KO/DQ: -110
- Mike Malott via submission: +650
- Mike Malott via decision: +550
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Burns Wins
Despite his world-class jiu-jitsu, Burns is a fairly straightforward fighter. He explodes into big kicks, big overhands and big double leg takedowns, crashing into his opposition in a very physical fashion. If able to gain top position, Burns’ grappling mastery is on display.
Wrestling feels like the path to victory here. Malott is the more refined striker and has an edge in height and reach as well. Burns is going to have to close that gap and gain the hips, because he’ll have a real advantage if able to ground Malott. The Canadian may be a jiu-jitsu black belt himself, but he’s nowhere near as decorated as “Durinho.”
Add in an elbow or two, and the gap grows further.
How to close distance on Malott? Burns should be trying to counter the kicks of the Canadian, who builds combinations well from the threat of his round kicks and stance switches. If Burns can block well and return fire to get Malott’s guard up, he should be able to find a path to the double leg takedown.
How Malott Wins
Malott is a very smooth customer in all facets of the game. His kickboxing attack comprises powerful round kicks from both legs and smart switch-hitting combinations. His clinch wrestling has proven very effective in the cage thus far, and the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is quite nasty if able to get on a front choke.
If Burns’ goal is to close distance and wrestle, it makes sense that Malott conversely will want to maintain his range and deny the shot. This is where Malott’s combination building will be so valuable. He does really good work in getting his opponents moving off the threat of his power kicks and then instead cracking them with punches. That should work great against Burns, as it’s very difficult to shoot once already retreating.
Otherwise, Malott should look at what’s worked previously versus “Durinho.” There’s plenty of tape available to on the long-time UFC veteran. Notably, Burns has been hurt on numerous occasions by stiff jabs, as he likes to step forward with wide swings. If his big step forward is interrupted by the jab, it tends to hurt real bad. Lastly, Malott should definitely up the aggression and aim to hurt his opponent early. Burns’ confidence is low given his losing streak, so it would be risky to let him gain a foothold in the fight and rebuild momentum.
Burns vs. Malott Prediction
This very much appears to be a case of out with the old, in with the new.
Burns’ grappling is a threat in just about any matchup. There’s always a chance he takes down Malott early and wraps up a quick tap. Given Malott’s own grappling credentials and the fact that Burns has only scored one tapout this decade, a quick submission doesn’t feel like a massive threat. More likely, Malott stings Burns with something early on, the Brazilian starts to question himself, and the Winnipeg crowd urges him on to an early knockout.
